Sam Kovacs

@calvinfroedge That's my read too. So much for free markets.

ChatGPT6 supposedly being released in the next month which will be on par with the Fable models which were just banned for export In other news supposedly, OpenAI has pressured US officials with bribes to take action against their competition

There was that great chart @pmarca shared a while ago about how there are things that AI/tech can compress which will trend to zero, and everything which won't be compressed because of scarcity/ regulation/ intervention, which will just go to the moon. Accounting is worth 0, scarce assets the opposite.

There will be a great premium on *real* things for a long period of time ahead The digital world is in a race to the bottom

"THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT" - GTFOH 10Y returns from today are looking shit. This indicator has been more accurate than the Buffett Indicator, CAPE Schiller, and Tobin Q. It’s been crying wolf for a decade, how much longer will it be wrong?

@DickDragonPriv1 @DrJStrategy Yes been monitoring the move in Real Estate, and interesting to see bullish moves setting up in industrials, retail and sunbelt residential. Not at all what youd expect if rate hikes were coming

@DrJStrategy $KBWB and $XLRE agree.

Smart money positioning for rate cuts not rate hikes.

@rossburner_ @JC_ParetsX Yes when I put together the chart the first time I just did doubles, but that was crowded with 2009, then mid 2020, and wasnt really measuring what I wanted to see

@JC_ParetsX Why is this little caveat added in there?

We’re not even close to silly yet. Get comfortable.

If you taxed (read stole) 100% of Elon’s net worth you could fund the current US government for ~50 days. Elon went through an incredible amount of failure, stress, and suffering to create that wealth. What will the government create over 50 days?

SpaceX IPO vs 20 biggest US IPOs An image is worth 1.7 trillion words.

@Trading_Wrld Totally. "When it rolls over " was the key insight. + check the chart I published today.

Does not mean we have to come down now. NASDAQ + S&P could also do another ATH before collapsing… very likely in my opinion!

@heyshrutimishra My advice to SpaceX employees: count your blessings and dump half your shares.

Elon just created 4,400 millionaires in a single day. 400 of them are now worth over $100 million. These aren't VCs. They're SpaceX employees, and the list includes welders, technicians, and cafeteria staff, because for two decades the company paid every level of the workforce in stock instead of higher salaries. Juan Hernandez immigrated from Mexico and took a $28 an hour contractor welding job in 2015. He says he didn't even know what SpaceX was. The company gave him a $10,000 equity grant and let him buy more shares through payroll deductions. That stake is now worth $880,000. Trevor Hise's parents wanted him to take a stable job at General Electric. He picked SpaceX instead, stayed 12 years, and accumulated over 100,000 shares. At the $135 listing price that's $13.5 million. He's 37 and semiretired. His words: "The magnitude of this has been ridiculous." The most telling detail came before the listing. Over 100 employees quietly banded together and negotiated a group wealth management deal covering up to $5 billion, because none of them had ever needed a wealth manager before. Software IPOs have minted millionaires for 30 years. This is the first one where the money went to the factory floor.

@DonMiami3 Laddering otm calls on $BNO might be the trade. You cant manipulate the market past tank bottoms.

Pretty quiet considering we've seen 5 different MOUs and deals today. Surprised.

@jacksonhinkle Ok $BNO $60 AUG 21 at $2 have asymmetrical rr here

🇮🇷 Mohsen Rezaei aborts understandings with Washington with a decisive condition: “The complete withdrawal of the United States and its bases from the Gulf and the region is our fundamental condition, otherwise any deals have no value.”

@AllVentured Unless supply is actually very tight and the market price is being manipulated. Jk this sort of thing never happens in capital markets…

This is moronic. India has excess refining capacity and can buy oil for $85... Something very odd going on where countries are opting to have shortages rather than buy cargoes at the average price from the last 20 years.

@dividendgrowth1 Just Imagine what that would mean for stocks. SPX 10k?

@SamKovX Today's condition is the most similar to 2004 and 2010

How stupid can the market get? According to history, a lot more.

@OilHeadlineNews So million barrels per day today? So 7miion barrels today.

US ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT SAYS ROUGHLY 7 MILLION BPD IS GETTING OUT OF GULF TODAY WITH US MILITARY HELP

@AllVentured What I dont get is: Oil don but Majors : up Canadian : up Oil field services: up Tankers : up

At $100 oil a month ago with all of the imminent deal headlines, I could believe that refiners and governments were holding off on purchases on hope of Hormuz opening. At $85 after 3.5 months of BS headlines, I think end users have already or are quickly securing all of their demand in the futures market at these prices. Japan has already told us July will be 100% of normal oil imports, all sourced from outside Hormuz. And its not just Japan, every country and every refiner would be crazy not to hedge the whole strip here even if they believed a deal gets signed this weekend. I continue to think that there are real users with existential longs locking in palatable oil prices on one side of this trade and naked short specs on the other. Absolutely insane.

x.com/SamKovX/status… Could get a lot worse.

MARKET OFFICIALLY IN STUPID MODE. Margin debt increased 53% yoy. When this number rolls over, it usually leads market crashes by 3 months. Peak Euphoria incoming.

@PJN0007 Thanks for sharing

Excellent Chart ... We be in the stupid zone...

@TheIranianzg3z The first rule of politics is to never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

BREAKING: CNN has released a montage highlighting repeated statements by President Trump claiming that a deal with Iran is close. According to CNN, he has made similar claims at least 39 times since the start of the conflict, despite no final agreement being reached.

@DavidMKeyes The first rule of politics is to never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

🚨🚨 Iranian negotiator, Hollata Bulshet, has arrived in Europe for the signing ceremony