ShaneMcElligott

@ianbremmer I don’t know he looks a bit skeptical

moose says he’d let tankers through if he were in charge of the strait.

@ianbremmer Let me check ….. yep still Closed!

hard to see the iran-israel component of a ceasefire holding. whether that breaks the broader us-iran agreement is an open question.

@Buffering666 @gbrew24 We all know the Strait stayed closed and they couldn’t force it open. And we all saw the price of oil. You’re better off trying to cheerlead this admin on feeds other than those of geopolitical experts.

@elligottmc @gbrew24 Yeah, other than wrecking Iran’s military industrial complex, assassinating top leaders over and over again, and showing how useless Iran’s Made In China air defense systems are, the admin did basically nothing these past 3 weeks.

Explain to me like I’m 5 years old how shredding Iran’s military industrial complex for 4 weeks & killing scores of senior leadership while exposing the regime as an untrustworthy band of pirates is a defeat for the USA.

@peterdaou The idea is to call it like you see it and not give a damn what he thinks.

Saying Trump "chickened out" does what exactly? Is the idea to goad him into nuclear war?

@Buffering666 @gbrew24 It’s a massive L and the non-delusional have known this for ~3 weeks once it was clear the Iranians controlled Hormuz and there wasn’t a got dam thang this admin could do about it.

@gbrew24 The domestic protest movement that resurfaces every 1-2 years in Iran with ever greater ferocity will face a weakened regime next time around. It’s a “TBD” situation for sure but by no means a defeat for the US when Iran is clearly weaker today vs 4 weeks ago.

@allenanalysis Tick Tock Clarice… Tick Tock…

🚨 SCOOP: Pete Hegseth tried to fire the Army Secretary — Over paranoia. Hegseth reportedly feared Dan Driscoll, a JD Vance ally, could eventually replace him. So he tried to remove him mid-war. The White House blocked it. For now. The cracks are formimg.

@TheShortBear The real test is Hormuz. If traffic resumes somewhere near normal levels then this may hold. I don’t expect Iran to be in a huge rush, regardless of what they say. They will savor this David and Goliath moment. Plus it will just take time logistically, insurance-wise etc.

On the ceasefire and current fire. The IRGC and Israel will have to shoot the last big salve in order to seem like they submitted the other. This is typical in a fight like this. On top it takes time for a splintered Guerilla type army to get the commands from the top. Keep in mind the internet was shut down too. It’s also 4am over there, the ceasefire was announced in the middle of the night with many plans already started for current attacks. Expect the real start and test to be tomorrow.

@howardlindzon Hegseth is packing his under armor duffel right now

Pam Bondi right now from Russia I was right about the Dow

@financialjuice All the FAFO hype bros struggling with the dimensions of this absolute L

White House official: US expects that it will take some time for orders to get down to lower ranks of the IRGC - Axios

@DonBZW @ianbremmer Get outta here. You don’t now shit.

@elligottmc @ianbremmer You realize both sides always do this prior to a ceasefire right?

president trump kicks the deadline two weeks and has created a justification for doing so. good. but war not over. rinse, repeat.

@TheShortBear I’m doing just fine fading these TACOs tyvm.

I hope the commentary and war planning from pinned thread helped. 0dte, crypto buys, long starters on my end.

@BuildwithPublic @public 0DTE on SPY: sell daily 30Δ $1 call spread. TP: 75% credit SL: 150% credit Exit: 1hr before close Filter: bid-ask ≤ $0.15 Skip ex-div days

@elligottmc @public 100% what do you want to run?

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@ianbremmer Hegseth will follow Noem and Bondi out the door. Just a matter of time.

iran ministry of foreign relations has put out at least one statement indicating us soldiers will be regarded as prisoners of war under geneva convention…but only if the united states reciprocated. secretary of defense pete hegseth has said “no quarter, no mercy” for us enemies.

really really hope this doesn’t become a hostage situation.

@noclador @TheRickWilson Sitting ducks

Daylight CSAR: a) means F-15E crashed b) means pilot and WSO are alive c) means that the USAF knows the location both d) means it's is urgent to extract them now.

@acpandy @financialjuice You do realize what the pilots were doing in that jet correct?

@financialjuice fucking evil if they killed our pilots, Trump may nuke them

Governor of Southwestern Iran Province: Whoever captures or kills crew of downed US jet will be specially commended by the governorate - Semi-Official News Agency ISNA

@biancoresearch @McClellanOsc It’s clear you are correct on identifying the vulnerability. But sticking around on a misguided mission to provoke the remnants of the Persian Empire in the most challenging geography on Earth does not seem like the best way to figure out how to fight this new form of warfare.

I am not a military analyst. I'm a financial analyst focused on macroeconomic risk. That different lens might explain why I see something most military strategists and investors are missing. --- The New Rules of Warfare—And Why We Can't Opt Out For nearly a century, warfare belonged to whoever controlled the biggest defense budget. Aircraft carriers. Stealth bombers. Multibillion-dollar weapons systems. That model is changing in ways many aren't appreciating. Ukraine and Iran are showing the West what 21st-century conflict actually looks like: decentralized, highly iterative, fast-changing, unmanned, and cheap. Neither the US nor Russia—beginning in 2022—appears prepared. We might now have no choice but to show we can fight and win such a war. The Ukraine Approach Faced with a small defense budget, a much smaller population, and a vastly outnumbered army, Ukraine had to get creative. They couldn't match Russia's industrial capacity or spending. So they abandoned that playbook entirely. They developed an entirely new way to fight, highly decentralized, iterative, and most importantly, cheap. They also created Brave1—a completely new way to conduct war. Frontline commanders log into an iPad and bypass central command entirely. They spend digital points to purchase equipment directly from hundreds of (Ukrainian) manufacturers. When they encounter a new threat, they message the manufacturer directly and work with the engineers to find a solution, even if that means they visit to the front. The result is hardware or software upgrades that once took months now take days. Here's the crucial part: hundreds of manufacturers compete fiercely for these dollars by offering the best possible product as fast as possible. This isn't centralized procurement. It's a market. Competition drives innovation at scale. Weapons evolve as the enemy evolves in real time. Units are also awarded points for confirmed kills, uploaded from drone video—a powerfully eloquent way to grade effectiveness. But the real innovation might be how they decentralized manufacturing itself. Instead of building weapons in massive, centralized factories that make perfect targets for Russian bombing, Ukraine distributed production across hundreds of small manufacturers—workshops, machine shops, garages, and yes, kitchens. Each produces components or complete systems. This approach serves two purposes: speed and survival. You can bomb a tank factory. You destroy production for months. You cannot bomb ten thousand kitchens. If one workshop gets hit, ninety-nine others keep producing. The network regenerates faster than Russia can destroy it. This is why the manufacturing process includes actual kitchens—it's not a metaphor. It's a strategy. The Metric That Defines a New Era The result is staggering: at least 70% of battlefield casualties now come from drones. This is the first time in over a century that the primary cause of combat death is neither a bullet nor an artillery shell. Since World War I, industrial warfare meant industrial killing. Ukraine has broken that equation entirely. As a result, Russia is now controlling less territory than at any point since 2022 and going backward. In March, Ukraine made gains while Russia recorded no gains for the first time in two and a half years, and Drone-led offensives recaptured 470 square kilometers while paralyzing 40% of Russian oil exports. Ukraine has lowered the "cost per kill" to less than $1,000 per casualty—a 99.98% reduction from the millions of dollars that were common in the post-9/11 wars. This isn't an incremental improvement. This is a complete inversion of modern military economics. Yet the Western defense establishment is not learning from this. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger mocked Ukraine's entire approach. In The Atlantic, he called Ukrainian manufacturers "housewives with 3D printers," dismissing their work as "playing with Legos." They are not studying this revolution. They are mocking it. And the "housewives with 3D printers" are beating the Russian army! Ukraine Is Now in the Middle East The US Military and Gulf states face an eerily similar problem. Iran's Shahed drones threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that funnels 21% of global oil. They cannot fend off Iran by firing a $4 million Patriot missiles at $20,000 drones. They need what Ukraine has discovered: a decentralized, rapidly adaptive defense network that doesn't require centralized industrial capacity. That's why Ukraine just signed historic 10-year defense deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Over 220 Ukrainian specialists are now on the front lines of the Persian Gulf—exporting not just weapons, but a completely new doctrine of how to fight. The precedent is set. The model works. Everyone is watching. Mosaic On April 1st, Trump threatened to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages" if they don't reopen the Strait within weeks. It's the classic 20th-century playbook: overwhelming offense force, massive bombardment, industrial-scale destruction. The problem? That playbook doesn't work against distributed, cheap, rapid-iteration systems—especially when your enemy is organized under a mosaic structure. Iran's "Mosaic Defense" doctrine is a decentralized command system where authority and capability are distributed across multiple geographic and organizational nodes. Each region operates semi-autonomously with overlapping chains of command and pre-planned contingencies. It's designed so that when you destroy the center, the edges keep fighting. You cannot decapitate a system with no head. You cannot out-bomb your way to victory when your enemy is not centralized; this was the solution for 20th-century industrial warfare. Defense Wins Championships 21st-century asymmetrical threats require defensive shields, not aggressive offenses. Ukraine has built exactly that: rapid-iteration defenses, decentralized manufacturing, commanders empowered to buy solutions in real time and rewarded for success. That same defensive model may hold the key to opening the Strait of Hormuz. Not through massive offense, but through the ability to adapt and defend quickly. Why We're Stuck Whether you viewed this as a war of choice or not, it has now become a war to keep global trade open. And that makes it inescapable. This is precisely why the US cannot declare victory and walk away from the Strait of Hormuz— or TACO. Every adversary on the planet will interpret American withdrawal as confirmation that cheap asymmetric systems work against powerful centralized platforms. And these adversaries might have sent us a message last month. In mid-March 2026, an unauthorized drone swarm penetrated Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home to the U.S. Air Force's Global Strike Command. The fact that this happened not overseas but in the United States, and that these tests occurred just weeks ago, underscores how close this threat is now. They didn't attack. They announced their presence. Every adversary watching learned that cheap drone networks can reach into the US. The Global Supply Chain Risk If the US abandons the Gulf while Iran holds the Strait contested, markets will price this as validation that cheap systems can hold global trade hostage. The current market disruptions will become permanent. Supply chains will have to pivot from "just-in-time" efficiency back to "just-in-case" redundancy. Inflation returns as safety costs money. Trade routes diversify away from vulnerable chokepoints. The global friction tax becomes permanent. The Unavoidable Truth Once you prove that cheap, asymmetric systems can hold global trade hostage, that knowledge spreads globally and irreversibly. Every adversary learns the same lesson: you don't need a $2 trillion Navy—you need $20 million in drones and the will to use them. Withdrawing while the Strait remains contested would permanently validate this model. Supply chains shift to "just-in-case" redundancy. Insurance costs rise. The friction tax becomes structural—baked into every global transaction for decades. The cost of staying is measured in months. The cost of leaving is measured in decades of economic drag. We cannot leave unfinished business.

@ianbremmer Weak

trump speech absolutely not what markets were hoping for.

zero talk of us-iran negotiations so far. all about unilateral military strikes/solution.

@TheShortBear That was just … weak. I think this whole thing is about to topple over.

Pretty much what happened. This whole situation is so incredibly dumb.