50 Pence

@poly_data They know crime

This Polymarket wallet has a 100% win rate on the Bitcoin 5M markets > 92.5% win rate overall > $310,334 PnL > 16,000+ predictions What do they know?

@ShoaibHereWeb3 @0xTyrael are they provably giving maker rebates on those?

@polyint @0xTyrael Possibly a miscommunication in the doc as this old market doesn't reflect zero fee.

Where can you see fees paid in the Polymarket UI? Looking for it when placing orders and not seeing them

@ShoaibHereWeb3 @0xTyrael oh, nice scam. thanks for pointing out.

@0xTyrael @ShoaibHereWeb3 Old markets dont have fees. There is an ibformation circle that appears in buy card when theres a fee.

@ShoaibHereWeb3 It's wild, they should be showing these upfront not obscuring them away from users....

@Bonnet657 @TheGreekTrader Check Scoreboard

@polyint @TheGreekTrader

Sadly, a few influential Polymarket/UMA voters can basically decide the outcome of markets. Here's what just happened: There's a market on whether Trump talked with President Xi in March. Trump and Karoline Leavitt said they did, but China never confirmed it. And almost always (if not always), these kinds of calls are publicly announced by China, so that created a lot of doubt. That's why the odds dropped to around 17%. But today, literally nothing changed. No new evidence, no confirmation, nothing. The only thing that changed is that an influential UMA voter decided to vote that they talked. And just from that, the odds jumped from 17% to 95%. That's kind of insane. At this point, markets aren't resolving based on clear evidence, but based on what a few people like "JessicaOnlyChild" or "UMA rocks" think. I really hope Polymarket clarifies every market, until the new oracle system is live. It shouldn't be possible for a handful of non-Polymarket people to have that much influence over outcomes.

@DeepDishEnjoyer StripperOsint

whoa what caused this spike 10 minutes ago

@gbrew24 Pitch 50/50 on Hormuz transit charge.

To be clear, this would be impossible without also offering Iran sanctions relief. Which, incidentally, the US has already done (via a 30-day sanctions waiver).

"One idea that Trump has floated to advisers: securing U.S. access to some of Iran’s oil as part of any deal to end the war, according to a senior administration official. The official said there isn’t any current planning under way for that outcome." wsj.com/politics/elect…

@maxpcohen Real Gs dont leave the house.

The situation will not be monitored. Total polymarket fail

Some day in the future, @luanalopeslara will regret this.

Looks sick - check out the all new Predictfolio. Lots fo new features. Congrats to @CarOnPolymarket and Meep.

@charliebcurran Full Length Waffle House=$1B

wait what?

@SpeculatorArt The options looked thin. like 5 contracts per strike.

My prediction for the top prediction market traders is that many will start to expand beyond trading just prediction markets. If you were smart enough to guess the US would strike Iran by March 31, you would have made a 100% return on Polymarket. If you took that same knowledge and bought call options on your choice of a variety of commodities and equities, you could have made 300-500% returns. I expect over the next year we start to see more complex hedging using prediction markets. For example: Short - US strike on Iran by March 31st for $1,000 at 50c. Long - April WTI crude futures (CLJ26) options for $1,000 at $62.76 Downside risk if no strike would have been neutral, $0 won or lost. Upside based on reality as we know it today - 210% gain. Almost double what you would have made simply trading the Polymarket market.

@0xPredictor @Polymarket lol just saw this one

@polyint @Polymarket 👀 x.com/binance/status…

Lot of people ask me what’s the plan for next year? How is @Polymarket gonna 10x? Is it TGE? Nah, skim the news bro, its K through 12. Didn't you hear? In October, Shayne emailed the SEC pretending he was a kid applying for a license to run a NEC based exchange for kids. Legal Polymarket on Nintendo in schools and you are worried about growth, anon?

@catboyautist and the 8pg rule on Kalshi is Noob-friendly? Mentions are traps, period. Any topical use of the root should count.

People ask why I don't trade mentions on Poly, its pretty simple; the people responsible for making the strikes there are focused on extracting as much money from noobs and don't care about the longevity of the category

GOAT STATUS CEMENTED Not a single other "sharp" was on K-12.

Bad Idea Getting paid to promote a platform and then accusing every user on it of being an insidoor trader so you can get $10 and +3 followers. Worse Idea Paying people to call your business a crime scence. Paying anyone too stupid to figure that out. Worser Idea Business transactions with teenage influencers in regulated industries. $20B boo-boo: Investing in or running a company in a highly regulated industry with 0 employees capable of discerning a single one of the above is a bad idea. $40B DOUBLEDOWN MAXRETARD MODE Doubling down into an 80% chance of losing 80% of your revenue b/c u didn't hire 3 generic and very mediocre 40yo employees to simply say, "um, that doesn't sound like the best idea." GENERATIONAL KYS FUMBLE Not getting in on the ground floor of any of this and being that very mediocre, generic 40yo muttering to urself, this doesn't sound like the best idea. (NOTE: Despite the badge, i am NOT paid to tweet this, although maybe that acshually would be a good idea...)

@AIDayInTime @mansourtarek_ You did get ur bet back. Go look at refunds in Your Activity.

Where’d your other reply go about no body losing money? You fucked me out of $442 in winnings and I didn’t even get my bet back. It’s factual that if you aren’t alive, you aren’t the Supreme Leader anymore. You let me take the bet, and then you refused to pay it out. Fuck Kalshi if they don’t man up and own this.

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

@Dizzvegas @mansourtarek_ You were. Check Settlements AND Refunds. There are 2 transactions, one settling the bet and returning part of the funds, and then a second transaction for a refund for the difference.

We stand by principle and law: 1. Kalshi didn't deviate from its market rules. They were clear that death did not resolve the market to "Yes". 2. Kalshi's rules prevented a 'death market', where traders directly profit from death. This is a good thing (+ we're a US based market). 3. Kalshi made no money here, and even reimbursed all losses out of pocket. Not a single user walked away losing money from this market.

@JessicaLBurbank tomatotomatoe

is his name mark or wayne