Mark Spindel

@dampedspring @Chartfest1 Dropped F bombs the way other people caught their breath.

@PotomacRC @Chartfest1 Loved loved Tom B.

When I was at GS they gave us free lunch at our desks daily. I think I ordered the spinach salad from Delmonico's every day for two years!

@Chartfest1 @dampedspring The inimitable Michael Lewis … wapo.st/4rMUH6T

@dampedspring @PotomacRC The only time I ever worked that late was October 1987 when it took me HOURS to do my hand drawn charts because the scales had changed so much.

@dampedspring @Chartfest1 Salomon > “Free” Dinners if you worked past 8 ! And a “free” ride home #Cloverdale !

@Chartfest1 1988-2003. No free lunches at Salomon. You GS folks were committed. BW 2010-2013 was my only free lunch experience and that was cuz we were in a forest and isolated from food.

@NeneHilarious @alifarhat79 ustreasuryetf.com/etf/rbil/

Lmao

@SkinsHoops86 @krisjohnsonlive instagram.com/p/DBxS27tPgy3/…

Dusty May on Aday Mara recruitment: "We went back & looked at Synergy, his nat'l team stuff. When we zero in on someone, it's a 24-hour, just all in on trying to gather as much info & see them at their best, see them at their worst, & try to get a clear picture of who they are"

Are absences vacancies ? Are vacancies absences ? uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req…) @steveliesman @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @bindersab

@albertedwards99 @rbrtrmstrng @FT @hakyungkim_ Same chart using the 1y1y intl swaps….

Chart of the week @FT Unhedged column with @hakyungkim_ & @rbrtrmstrng is a chart from my latest note. The FT headline is "Higher oil prices are just a short-term worry: Long-term inflation expectations are staying steady". Mine was "Investor complacency invites a market shock"

Nick captures clearly the key tenet of @bindersab and my research. The Fed “…depends on sustained and broad political support to protect its independence.” Including, now, the judicial branch.

Interesting details on this meeting from USAO filing

@dampedspring @vixologist 🤔…

@vixologist Not inverse per se but $HYGH goes up when high yield corporate spreads go up

OK fam. Where are the inverse ETFs that will let us short corporate credit??

@SamanthaLaDuc “For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell.” — Deirdre McCloskey

When you get Lloyd Blankfein of $GS warning "I smell a crash coming" and now Point72 David Rosen saying private credit is a fraudulent bubble... all within 24 hrs of each other... I dunno. Wall Street seems ... nervous.

@NickTimiraos @darioperkins "I have made this longer than usual because I have not had time to make it shorter.” — Blaise Pascal (in praise of good editors, undoubtedly.)

@darioperkins I’ll believe the labor displacement doom when the slop isn’t as patently obvious as it is right now. The AI should also allow you to make the argument in fewer words, but these articles are LONG!

Its ironic that AI has created a bull market in long substrack posts, especially as many of these writers are clearly using the technology. Labour-augmenting...

@NickTimiraos @MichaelRStrain @jasonfurman federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…

@NickTimiraos @MichaelRStrain @jasonfurman timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1… …. Endless examples … in many cases, Congress drags them into the fray….

By Hassett’s own standard — that the Fed should use its “extreme gravitas” only for monetary policy and stay out of political topics — Greenspan was wildly out of bounds in 2004. And yet nobody in the Bush White House was calling for Greenspan to be disciplined or suggesting the Fed was jeopardizing its independence. When the Fed chair was actively lobbying against protectionism in a way that aligned with a Republican president’s agenda, did anyone accuse the Fed of jeopardizing its independence? You worked for the Kerry campaign, @jasonfurman, so perhaps you can recall.

@CarterD @SarahAnzia am.gs.com/en-us/advisors… And goldmansachsbdc.com/content/gsam/u… @carlquintanilla @lloydblankfein

@PotomacRC @SarahAnzia If Blankfein were still at Goldman Sachs, he'd be urging his bankers to go out and get a piece of the action.

Except those “big institutional investors” are often public sector pensions with explicit public sector liabilities (debt). Employers, employees and *taxpayers* will care. See 👇🏻 with the inimitable @SarahAnzia degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/1…

@byHeatherLong Who do the regional boards answer to ?

Watch this space... Regional Fed Presidents are likely to step up more to defend the Fed against WH criticism. The regional Fed presidents just got re-confirmed for another 5 years. They manly answer to regional Fed boards, not DC.

@NickTimiraos @FreeTrashFlow piie.com/sites/default/… (@PIIE)

You’re right that the Fed’s MBS purchases in 2021 are hard to defend in hindsight, and plenty of Fed officials have acknowledged as much. But it’s worth noting that virtually every advanced economy experienced a similar inflation surge regardless of what their central bank did — suggesting the pandemic and fiscal response were big drivers, not just monetary policy. The piece isn’t giving Powell a pass so much as noting where the economy stands as he leaves. Reasonable people can think the Fed made the problem worse *and* that the outcome we’ve gotten is better than most expected. Both things can be true.

This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try to lay them all out: wsj.com/economy/federa…

@Claudia_Sahm 😉

"Thus, the way to choose a good Federal Reserve chair is to read what candidates have said about how the economy operates and ask them about their economic beliefs. If what a candidate says is unrealistic or poorly reasoned, move on to another candidate or risk a replay of the 1930s or the 1970s."

nytimes.com/2014/10/01/ups… (c 2014 @BCAppelbaum)