ZG44 Market Analytics

@hobbyinvestor25 @ariadnisaa @ThinFloat @jbulltard1 People short things on the way up. I've seen people try a half dozen times to short $CAR the past 3 weeks. Finally working today a little bit. But yeah people try shorting these things the whole way up and end up buying back into it and helping fuel the rise on the back end.

@ariadnisaa @ThinFloat @jbulltard1 Valid but shorts generally know how to make money even if they are in water at first… i absolutely HATE shorts and hedge funds that solely short but this couldn’t be a more obvious short…. NFA OF COURSE

The shorts who die in these moves always fascinate me.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston He won't get a crappy deal; it'll probably be something that isn't perfect but liveable. The blockade makes the Strait situation put a lot of pressure on Iran too. Markets are still expecting this to all get wrapped up by end of month, and I don't see reason to doubt that yet.

From Iran's perspective keeping the Strait closed for a full month while not being actively bombed is an ideal position from which to continue building steady leverage. Truly hope this ends soon, but, again, this remains a crisis of lost time—and this sounds like more time lost.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston I would bet money this is all wrapped up before WC starts and late June at the very latest. Just hard to believe Trump will allow this to overshadow any of those major events given what they mean to him.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston Also the World Cup and 250 year July 4 celebrations are coming up; Trump likely wants all this wrapped up before then given how central he is to those events.

@DGoose512 @KenMathis @Rory_Johnston US consumers don't care about Iran enough to be willing to withstand $120 oil and not make a stink about it.

@DGoose512 @KenMathis @Rory_Johnston Because Trump is mercurial and won't want oil prices spiking into June/July and peak driving season right before an election. Sometimes it's that simple. That's Iran's only leverage and it's probably good leverage knowing how Trump acts.

@DBatDad @porc4000 @Rory_Johnston You're right, and I think futures may move up when they see what the real "recovery" rate is. Right now we're priced in for a rapid return to normal. If it takes longer than what's priced in, i.e. a slow traffic increase, then May/June oil will have to show that.

@ZG44_Analytics @porc4000 @Rory_Johnston +1 No freakin way SoH is going back to steady 80% traffic thought even if there's a jail break right now.

HSBC CEO “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka” That’s a delivered barrel so includes shipping, insurance, etc. But it’s still an eye-watering price to pay. FT full quote:

@stepnotonpets When are they going to release the investor deck? Is there something they're waiting for?

$BCAR

@SnapTheJapnese @ItsThomAnt @NickTimiraos Trump literally just wants a huge number of rate cuts. That's it. That's all he knows or thinks about with the Fed.

@ItsThomAnt @NickTimiraos hahahah. I can say, with 100% certainty, that Trump does NOT care about money waste. He cares about getting what he wants (when he wants it). He wants a loyalist at the FED, to do what he says, when he says it. That is all.

Trump tells Bartiromo he doesn't want to drop any Fed probe because he thinks the cost overruns need to be examined. He says Tillis's threat to delay Warsh's confirmation isn't serious... and if it is, he'll fire Powell after Powell's term ends wsj.com/economy/centra…

@wiseonesuk @MrMBrown They won't be the last to do this. Honestly surprised we're not seeing more of it. When people see the stock go crazy, maybe there will be more of this.

@MrMBrown It’s one of David Sachs companies. Explains a lot

What. The. Hell.

@porc4000 @Rory_Johnston Markets are guessing Trump and Iran will have a deal soon.

@porc4000 @Rory_Johnston If Strait traffic stays at these levels then sure delivered oil in May/June will make the current futures prices look like a joke. If war ends and Strait traffic is back above 80-90% of pre-war levels in next 2 weeks, then May/June futures will be correct. No goalpost shift imo.

@nauticavan @lrozen Clearly it's worked on the stock market, which believes it will all end in the next few days. Whether that actually happens is what matters.

@lrozen So is his plan to just pretend it’s not happening??

@TheSpaceSoviet Honestly, this is exactly how you're supposed to feel near generational tops. This is exactly how 1999 felt.

I'm increasingly convinced that there is never going to be a major crash again. The market is so divorced from the "real" economy that 90% of the population could be eating dirt and the S&P would still be noting record gains.

@Lee_Lichterman @NickTimiraos Yeah I agree with you on both points.

Agree but the effects will trickle across the economy over time. Already shipping costs/fees are rising, airlines are adding surcharges. They will likely keep some of those higher prices even after oil drops. Companies using their services will increase prices to recover some of those added costs but with a delay. Eventually, workers will demand higher pay to try and keep up. Agree on demand destruction. Personally, I'm skipping fertilizing my pastures this year both because of fertilizer prices and also the savings in fuel by not driving the tractor. I'm also going to delay running my mulcher to thin my woods to save on fuel.

Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure "If the closure is over after one quarter, the effect on core inflation reaches 0.8 percentage points at an annualized rate in April 2026, followed by oscillating responses of diminishing amplitude. At the other extreme, if the closure persists for three quarters, the effect on core PCE inflation remains positive for the remainder of 2026, reaching as high as 0.8 percentage points as late as September 2026." dallasfed.org/~/media/docume…

@Lee_Lichterman @NickTimiraos In the case of high oil prices, demand destruction is a more realistic scenario than the high prices from Covid stimulus (which was a bit of a different shock with more sticky price effects). Agree generally that these Fed guys have underestimated inflation at every turn.

@NickTimiraos How do they believe inflation will come down without intervention. Have they never heard of "prices are sticky"? That's why we're still not at 2% target following COVID stimulus 6 years later. Morons!

@roddreher You can't ignore Orban's complete capture of the public media/entertainment apparatus; that's half of the battle in an election is getting to make your case to the public.

@roddreher "4 free elections in a row". Why is his opponent appearing for the very first time receiving a public media interview today after he won the election?

Oh, horseshit. Orban won four free elections in a row. He lost this one because the economy has been lousy for three years, & ppl wanted change. Fair play. It’s hard for globalists to understand, but it’s still democracy when ppl vote in ways you don’t like.