Cameron

@ensembleator @SteveRickettsSP Honestly, the BCNDP losing just 2.5% of their massive 2020 vote share, and winning a slim majority is pretty incredible given these circumstances. People seem to like when a government looks like they're making big moves on big issues (eg housing)

@SteveRickettsSP It's like the start of an emotional rollercoaster and 1 term govs as successive parties fail to achieve the Nirvana their partisans expect and really fire up the opposition

@DouglasTodd @CityofVancouver Did you miss the highway-side gas station that was here, or the weed-filled lot and chain link fence?

The uglification of Vancouver picks up steam. Was a time when @CityofVancouver would have demanded green space, setbacks & openess from this project, at 4th & McDonald in Kitsilano. But the days are over when developments added esthetic quality to streetscapes. #vanre #bcpoli

@SyntheticusAlt Next election there are thousands of new rental and condos and a UBCO campus. Kelowna Centre will be in play for the NDP going forward.

@BlakeCousins @David_Moscrop Which deters conservative voters. Fine, live in conspiracy land and drive your turnout down. No sympathy from me

@cmrnbourne @David_Moscrop Bots are already pushing the "can never trust an election again" narrative.

And then the battle over electing a speaker begins!

@richardzussman @busdriverlife So they will determine which recounts happen after that I suppose?

@busdriverlife Elections BC has very specific rules about the order of count based on different types of ballots. Special ballots are counted Monday.

There are 225 special and absentee ballots in Surrey-Guildford that will start being counted at 9am on Monday. There will be no final result in the riding today. Final results for all ridings will come on Monday. #bcpoli

@Prominent_Bryan @kylejhutton It's making logical, but of course unprovable inferences. Looking at why mail-in tilted so heavy left you'd say it's likely carry over from the massive tilt left during Covid. And a better GOTV effort to nab late ballots. Common sense inferences. Chill.

@cmrnbourne @kylejhutton You guys are funny with what you consider "evidence" but hey, I've learned this with a few of my tweets already

@chadskelton I'd say that's GOTV in action more than a particular lean of procrastinators

Post updated with some theories. Two main ones: - 2020 election got folks comfortable with mail-in voting. A lot more of those folks were NDP supporters. - Final count this time includes only late-arriving mail in ballots. Maybe procrastinators lean left? chadskelton.com/2024/10/ndp-on…

Surrey-Guildford is on track to flip from Conservative to NDP. And the NDP is doing so well in late-counted ballots that Kelowna Centre might be in play, too — which would give the NDP a 48-seat majority. chadskelton.com/2024/10/ndp-on… #bcpoli

@Prominent_Bryan @kylejhutton Because one party did a better job reminding their voters that they could still send in their mail-in ballots, late, and it's looking like they won that vote by astronomical margins

@kylejhutton How is Guildford an example of this? Projections wouldn't have this riding that close If anything we could argue it's close because that campaign did an amazing job at gotv

@steeletalk Surprised they waited until the recount turned out against their preferred candidate. It's just childish stuff. And no adult should act that way

Good lord. I see the election deniers are surfacing in BC - unhappy about the vote result & recount. Please Canada - don't go do that road and sow distrust in our electoral process.

@vancolour @VancouverThorn A 2-term gov in an anti-incumbency world, against a united opposition when your side is still split? The takes are looking pretty sour a week out. First 3-term NDP gov in this electoral climate is a huge feat, and part of it is thay Eby went into the campaign w/net + approval

@VancouverThorn Fair, but by many measures, this election shouldn’t have been as close as it is. Money, on-the-ground organization, and experience all heavily favoured one side.

Imagine winning the MVP while allowing your opponent to win its first-ever 3-peat. #bcpoli

@CanadianPolling Maybe 2 tbh. Need to see what the Kelowna margins look like

BC NDP might actually manage a 1-seat majority in BC with the way the final counts are going

@CdnElectWatch The margin needed for the NDP to win Kelowna was pretty much the same as Guildford. There's like 1/3 more ballots to count in Kelowna

Based on these numbers, I'd call all ridings except for: - Surrey-Guildford, a tossup - Kelowna Centre, a long-shot but possible NDP flip. Elections BC will likely report mail ballots for Kelowna Centre at 4pm - may be able to call it then.

Updated BC election results: electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr… No riding flipped, but NDP increased its leads and is now just 14 votes behind in Surrey-Guildford - that's squarely in judicial recount territory to decide on a majority.

@VaughnPalmer Given how heavy the covid mail-in favoured the NDP, no surprise that their voters learned the practice of using mail-in

Favourable showing for NDP in three ridings supports Chad Skelton analysis that these late votes skew NDP.

@sobittersosweet It's 46 to 48 for the NDP. No chance Cons flip any now. That is definitive

Nothing definitive yet but the NDP lead in both Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre has widened (106 votes and 162 votes, respectively) In Surrey-Guildford, the Conservative lead has shrunk to 14 votes #bcpoli

@richardzussman The recounts needed will be in Con held seats. Both narrow NDP wins will end up well over 100 vote margins

NEW - The BC NDP have closed the gap in Surrey-Guildford. The Conservatives lead by just 14 votes over the NDP as mail-in-voting counting continues. #bcpoli

@kylejhutton @adropboxspace They lost some of their coalition and gained elsewhere. But if they hold on its Canada's 1st 3-term NDP govt, against anti-incumbency headwinds, w/a relatively strong Green (by Canada's standards) and a united centre-right/right. More nuance is needed in conventional wisdom takes

this is the second best NDP performance since the 80s and the only better one was the post-COVID early election. Considering the collapse of PCs in NB and the coming SK election, Ebby cleary did better than average in a change year.

@MaxwellACameron We'll likely know enough by 1pm today

What the weekend looks like for those of us on the edge of our seats. #bcpoli elections.bc.ca/news/update-on…

@UBCIC @JohnRustad4BC If she wins by Monday, the recall campaign better start on Tuesday.

It is unacceptable at every level that the contempt and racism by Marina Sapozhnikov cannot be walked back by her party leader @JohnRustad4BC. This abhorrent behaviour cannot be rewarded or ignored.