Devin Keer

230 posts

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Devin Keer

Devin Keer

@29nextdevin

Builder of Ecommerce SaaS • Follower of all things DTC Ecommerce • Founder of @NextCommerceCo

Beigetreten Ocak 2022
170 Folgt109 Follower
Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@RomanEcom The most obvious thing ever that is somehow controversial. Soak it up it doesn't last long!
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Jacob
Jacob@jforjacob·
May be time to move to custom checkout with my own MID’s It’s clear what direction shopify is going in. Optimising for their Shop ecosystem instead of what’s best for their merchants What’s the best options out there right now for checkouts? Don’t say Sticky or Phoenix Both a rip off Also open to recommendations for MID’s
Jacob@jforjacob

Shopify changing people’s checkout automatically “Pay as guest” or “pay and save my info” How do we disable this? It’s absolutely obliterating mine and your CVR’s

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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@BowtiedImpala Micro influencer driven maybe? Media platforms are efficient. Cogs are cogs
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BowtiedImpala
BowtiedImpala@BowtiedImpala·
You can feasibly (not easily) build an e-com business turning over $1m in 12-18 months. Typical net margins are 30%. Typical valuations are 2-4x earnings. You can therefore build 600k-1.2m in equity within 12-18 months. Probably the fastest way to catapult yourself forward
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@RomanEcom Would be my pleasure, I'll DM you. We know a lot of mutuals in HK btw, missed you in Feb when I was last there.
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Roman Khan - Founder of Peak 21. We acquire brands
Happy you're getting the spotlight! Most people are in disbelief. I'd love to get on a call, record it and have you demo for example Linjer or Raycon moved over to your platform, just curious to see how it all works. Linjer the most as its the most global brand I have and the most tedious from a PDP standpoint
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Roman Khan - Founder of Peak 21. We acquire brands
Another bear case on $SHOP Talked to a founder on @MentorPass yesterday who’s done ~$45M TTM and is projecting $100M+ run rate with an AI-first approach. Duo-channel business: - Native ads - Google Ads Zero Meta. Zero AppLovin. The reason he’s growing so fast? He’s not on Shopify. He runs everything on a Medusa-like headless solution built on Next.js (blanking on the exact name). His rationale was simple: 1/ Seamless plug-and-play with Claude 2/ Can spin up landing pages + localization insanely easily (he launches hundreds of products per month) 3/ Way more iterations, flexibility, and speed vs Shopify Cost wasn’t even the deciding factor (though it’s much cheaper than a full $SHOP stack). This is becoming the new normal. Pretty crazy to watch. If I had the courage I’d switch Linjer tomorrow — our catalog management and especially localization is an absolute nightmare on Shopify compared to what this guy had. But we're growing a lot this year and I don't want to disrupt the train.
Roman Khan - Founder of Peak 21. We acquire brands@RomanEcom

Had dinner with some sharp D2C founders the other night. One dropped a fascinating bear case on $SHOP: He previously built + sold his own D2C brand. Now he’s rapidly testing a bunch of new ones — all built with Claude + a custom-coded checkout from a Scandinavia-based payments company. CRs are higher and oddly $META CPMs are lower on the non Shopify store. His co-founder is technical, so he can execute on this without worrying too much. I wouldn’t have the guts yet… but with AI moving this fast, maybe in 3-6 months I will. Curious if anyone else is seeing similar custom vs. Shopify gaps. In particular for $META CPMs

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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@RomanEcom Whoa thanks for the shout-out @RomanEcom Fyi we can sync your current Shopify backend so you don't actually have to migrate on that end...
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
Most companies still treat AI adoption like a training problem. I think it's much more like apprenticeship. People change how they work when they can watch a useful workflow produce better output, copy it, and get a few safe reps in. Workshops create awareness while visible craft inspires changes in behavior. That's why teams actually getting results treat adoption like any tradecraft, with hands-on encouraged over theory.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@stuartchaney Way faster than Opus. That's a big one imho even if a simple thing. My own brain's context window crumbles if I have to wait for Claude to think for 5 minutes to execute a basic ask
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Stuart Chaney
Stuart Chaney@stuartchaney·
@29nextdevin it’s very very good at following direction, much like 5.4 - but just hasn’t clicked with my codebase yet. Working through it though
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Stuart Chaney
Stuart Chaney@stuartchaney·
April will be the lowest month for code commits in over a year strong correlation with the opus fall off currently rebuilding systems as the models evolve and change - healthy to always assume its a skill issue. Nov - March: Kill the guardrails / complex workflows. The models just figure it out. April: Bring back the guardrails. The models take things very literally now. onwards
Stuart Chaney tweet media
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Victor Cardenas Codriansky
Victor Cardenas Codriansky@victorcardenas·
We built this internally at Slash and it has genuinely changed the trajectory of our company. Insane what perfect, real-time context for anyone at your org does for productivity.
Y Combinator@ycombinator

Company Brain @t_blom Every company has critical know-how scattered across people's heads, old Slack threads, support tickets, and databases, and AI agents can't operate like that. We think every company in the world is going to need a new primitive: a living map of how the company works that turns its own artifacts into an executable skills file for AI.

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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
Ugly funnels usually get explained as a taste problem. I think they're more often an incentive problem. Affiliates optimize for payout. Merchants respond by extracting a little more revenue per session. Checkouts get more aggressive, refund pressure rises, processors tighten, and everyone acts surprised by the downstream damage. If you want cleaner funnels, you have to change the economics underneath them.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@adityasingh_58 I'd tend to agree with you, except for the labyrinth of attribution apps and tools that merchants are always fiddling with, even on the core checkout
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Aditya Singh
Aditya Singh@adityasingh_58·
@29nextdevin offer testing is the one that gets weird when it lives outside. the winner looks clear on the side path but checkout level data is the only number that isn't lying.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
Shopify is excellent as the home base for a brand. The mistake is assuming every paid acquisition journey has to live inside the default Shopify storefront path. When paid traffic, offer testing, checkout control, post-purchase revenue, and subscriptions start colliding, the answer usually isn't "rip Shopify out." It's staying married to Shopify while running the journeys that need more control on rails built for that job.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@StefanGeorgi Good rule for DR offers is to sell at the lowest price possible. Just has such strong knock-on effect on payments risk and overall customer experience. $40 is so much easier to defend than $60 in a lot of ways
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Stefan Georgi
Stefan Georgi@StefanGeorgi·
For people doing DTC (and especially supplements), one of the biggest paradigm shifts over the past year or so is the fact that trying to maximize your front-end AOV is typically a losing strategy on meta now. Reason why: When your AOV goes up, your CAC tends to go up. This is "anecdotal" but supported by tons of biz owners I talk to in CA Pro who, combined, are spending over $100MM a month. Why does it happen? Two theories: Theory 1: Meta hates high AOV supplement offers and kind of assumes they're scammy or going to lead to a poor customer experience. Theory 2: Pixel gets conditioned to search for high ticket customers. There are fewer of those customers, but they're worth more, so meta's algo figures it's fine to spend more money to get them. I'm not a media buying expert so maybe those theories are both wrong, and if someone has a better explanation feel free to drop it below... But regardless, it's pretty universally accepted that as AOV goes up, CAC goes up, and it's really frustrating for business owners. So the "contrarian" thing I've been advising folks on lately is to not focus on AOV or, in some cases, to actually try to build lower AOV funnels. You'll make less gross revenue per customer, but if you can scale profitably or at breakeven on the FE at 500 - 2,000 new customers per day, you'll end up a lot happier than if you're losing money on 100 higher-paying customers per day. Especially since email monetization isn't nearly as powerful as it used to be. So yeah, you can theoretically sell those higher value customers more stuff and get a better LTV from them (even without subscription), but most people suck at doing that. That's on top the whole adding subscription options to the checkout thing. Obviously that's great - it's just harder to actually get great retention than people think, especially for supplements, skincare, etc. Doesn't mean it's not worth it - just dangerous to bank on that. But anyways, I see a lot of people scaling to 8 figures with a $90-$100 AOV and a $50 CPA.... While I also see a lot of people stuck at low 7 figures with a $250 AOV and a $230 CPA. And again, that's a massive change, because historically the goal for anyone not focused on subscription was to maximize Day 0 AOV. Nowadays though, that's often a losing strategy.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@galligator Judging yourself by the success of the people around you isn't a bad way to live. But yeah you gotta get paid too
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Matthew Gallagher
Matthew Gallagher@galligator·
I ran my last company for 9 years, it did over $250m in sales and profited exactly dick. When I was growing it, the message to builders was “growth at all costs” because profit would be found at scale. All of my employees made more money from the company than I did, but I learned valuable lessons. If you’re building something right now, drop a link and what you’re struggling with and I’ll reply. If you’re looking for fresh ideas, check what @levelsio recently built
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@StefanGeorgi "everyone" is already trying to copy them as you know, which might in the end be the bigger risk. @galligator is a good operator but the copycats aren't
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Stefan Georgi
Stefan Georgi@StefanGeorgi·
"Why would the Medvi guy go public? Everyone's going to copy them!" read the r/t comment to understand why that's a lot harder than it sounds. P.S. I still think there are major drawbacks and risks to going public, especially when running with an affiliate model (and there are already a lot of posts on X about this). But my point is - the idea that everyone will just "copy them" shows a deep lack of sophistication or awareness for the GLP-1 space.
Stefan Georgi@StefanGeorgi

There's actually a really obvious thing you're missing and that's just the pure economics. Typical GLP-1 company goes negative 2-4 months acquiring each customer. So any "copycat" needs a giant war chest to come in and acquire enough customers, at enough of a loss, for enough months, that those rebills kick in and you're cash-flowing acquisition at scale. Next is retention. It only works if you've got really good retention. Typical GLP-1 telemed biz that has no idea what they're doing is at a 50% churn. It's very hard to get churn down to 20% or lower (I know, for our telemed company we got it down to 13.6% and that was only through obsessive focus). Third, Medvi is mostly running through the affiliate model. There are pros and cons to this. Cons include what you're seeing on social media about some of the ads using fake doctors etc. Matt very well may not have known those were being run, but still increases liability. The pro is that a ton of affiliates all running to your offer in the hottest DTC space in the world = a lot of money. But this itself is actually a moat because affiliates are group animals. If they're running a GLP-1 offer at scale, they're getting paid quickly for their sales, and metrics are good, they are very reticent to switch. AND...on top of that, because of the aforementioned massive head start Medvi has each month due to all the recurring revenue, they can pay those affiliates more than nearly any newcomer can. This is addition to whatever his AI tech stack is, which likely increases efficiency, gross margin, and all that good stuff.

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Matthew Gallagher
Matthew Gallagher@galligator·
It’s actually a little crazy the number of people who form a whole opinion from a headline and then publicly wish horrible things will happen. Details matter. Half of X thinks I’m slinging fake Ozempic out of my garage with a robot doctor it’s wild
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@stuartchaney It's the most exciting time to be building....maybe ever
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Stuart Chaney
Stuart Chaney@stuartchaney·
for the doomer saas takes here: nobody knows what is going to happen BUT - the following is very true today: 1. If you are not in founder mode, completely restructuring your entire SaaS business today, you are far behind 2. Brand is more important than ever. Especially personal/founder brand attached to a company 3. Closest to the customer wins. 2026 SaaS is taking no passengers. Long hours are mandatory to evolve, whether you like it or not. Repeat steps 1-3 over and over.
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Devin Keer
Devin Keer@29nextdevin·
@stuartchaney Agree. It's also that you're paying someone (Klaviyo or whoever) to focus on their domain and keep innovating. Maybe someone can vibe code today's functionality but good SaaS is supposed to stay ahead of the curve perpetually.
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Stuart Chaney
Stuart Chaney@stuartchaney·
the 90/90 rule in engineering “The first 90% of the code accounts for the first 90% of the development time. The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time.” A lot of sub $50 software will be rightly replaced by vibe coders. But nobody is replacing Klaviyo, Hubspot, or any other mid-market/ enterprise software you depend on any time soon. Perhaps one day, but paying someone $1k per month to maintain, improve and deal with the hassle is still a better deal financially.
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Jason Applebaum
Jason Applebaum@Jason______A·
Everyone thinks I’m crazy for having this viewpoint. I think you’re crazy for not having it. In less than 5 years AI control logistics, defense systems, power grids, capital markets. We will have given AI the keys to everything. And you think humans stay at the top of that food chain? It might be an extreme statement but we will either be killed by the robots or enslaved by them. AI while incredible, is going to destroy civilization as we know it.
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