@AaronBlake I think the correct formulation should be "take away his biscuit." There are no "codes on the football."
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Amy Woolf
575 posts
Amy Woolf
@AmyWoolf8
Recently retired nuclear nerd. Facts are facts, opinions, are mine, and baseball is less interesting now that there is a pitch clock.
Chevy Chase, MD Beigetreten Şubat 2022
428 Folgt1.5K Follower
Where we're at:
One of Trump's most prominent backers, Tucker Carlson, is telling people around Trump to "figure out the codes" for the nuclear football, so Trump can't use it on Iran.
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@AnthonyAdragna There's really only one way to do that in the stated period of time.
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Trump says the U.S. military has developed a plan to decimate every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight tomorrow.
"Do I want to do that? No. Do I want to destroy their infrastructure? No."
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@KingstonAReif So nice to know that someone is still maintaining my favorite chart 😃
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The full NNSA weapons activities request has been released: energy.gov/cfo/articles/f…. A snap shot of NNSA's five year/outyear defense spending plans over time. The FY27 FYSNP has the FY28-31 budgets growing at a 2% nominal rate annually.
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The $27.44 billion FY27 request for NNSA weapons activities is $3.18 billion (or 13%) more than the FY26 enacted level and $6.1 billion (or 29%) more than the FY25 projection for FY27. There wasnt a FY26 FYNSP, but as of FY25 weapons wasnt slated to exceed $27 billion til FY34.
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@bpmckeon64 @Nationals @VerizonSupport I got the same result by phone with customer service—new package and lower price. They were just so lax about letting me know I needed to do that, I missed the first inning of opening day!
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@AmyWoolf8 @Nationals To its credit, @VerizonSupport encouraged me to reach out via DM, and addressed my issue with a new package, for which I get some upgrades and pay less per month.
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every game. all season. let's goooooo.
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Nationals.TV | nationals.com/watch
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@bpmckeon64 @Nationals I had the same problem, and customer service actually upgraded my plan pretty quickly. Then they tried to sell me a bunch of add-ons, when all I wanted to do was watch baseball.
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@Nationals I have Verizon Fios. Ch. 579 doesn't work. If I need to change my package, Verizon Fios website makes it nearly impossible, because...the customer service is terrible
I'll be watching the O's on MASN this year. Thanks for playing.
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@james_acton32 She should turn around and say "and you didn't tell us about your atomic bombs." But he'd probably take it as a chance to brag about how "strong" the US is with its nuclear weapons. There is not bottom.
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I'm sure I'm worrying unnecessarily, but I have a nagging doubt that comparing the U.S. attack on Iran to Pearl Harbor, even in jest, may not help convince the international community of the legitimacy of U.S. actions.
Kaitlan Collins@kaitlancollins
Asked why he didn't coordinate with allies before going to war with Iran, Trump says, "We didn't tell anyone about it. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK?"
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@KomissarWhipla @DavidSantoro1 For the record, I am not a fan of the U.S. argument that "a large portion of Russia's nuclear weapons are not covered by arms control" as a way to avoid arms control, but, Russia has more warheads for NSNW than the UK and France have in total. So either count everything, or not.
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@DavidSantoro1 Tempo of Russian disarmament has been significantly higher. Relative value of each French and British warhead is quite high, especially coupled with what might become a much more proactive nuclear postures.
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Relative arsenal numbers are significantly different in 2026.
Bruno Tertrais@BrunoTertrais
It was « no » in 1976, in 1986, in 1996, in 2006… and it never prevented Moscow from concluding arms control treaties. It’s still no in 2026, and would you please stop using us as excuses.
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@ProfTalmadge @EvansRyan202 Also reveals that they've never read Schelling.
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@EvansRyan202 Yes. It also reveals how little they have studied their adversary.
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This exchange reveals so much, I think, about Trump's implicit theory of compellence
Acyn@Acyn
Witkoff on Iran: The president is curious as to why -- I don’t want to use the word capitulated but why they haven't capitulated. Why under this pressure with the amount of naval power over there, why they haven't come to us and said we profess we don't want a weapon…
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@EvansRyan202 It reveals how little they understand the basics of deterrence and compellence. Their threats are filled with credibility gaps and commitment traps. Plus, even if Iran capitulates, it has no reason to believe the U.S. won't attack anyway. This is not a mob shakedown...
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@walberque B-52 conversions and SLBM uploads are "low hanging fruit" of upload. NST allowed easy reconversion for both; B-52s and SLBM conversions were THE issue for Russia's complaints about U.S. compliance. And NO amount of money thrown at NNSA will speed infrastructure expansion.
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Well, here comes the reconversion of the B52s:
yahoo.com/news/articles/…
And the July 2025 authorization includes restoring the Ohio Class from 20 to 24 tubes each, MIRVing, refurbishing warheads, and increasing nuclear weapons infrastructure.
congress.gov/bill/119th-con…
Amy Woolf@AmyWoolf8
@walberque @russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla Most of these are well outside the uploads timeframe and would be extraordinarily expensive (expand Pantex? new refurbishment and production facilities? NNSA can't build currently planned facilities!) And we'll never reconvert B-1s. AF has been trying to retire them for 30 years.
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@james_acton32 Or it’s “we can agree to this because it won’t interfere with anything we want to/are able to do.” That may be fine for those on one side of the debate but I would expect objections from those who would reject any sign of restraint even if it has no effect on our plans.
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I am very confused about what U.S. policy is right now. Trump is denying an informal New START extension. His advisors and the Russians apparently say otherwise.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🇺🇸🇷🇺☢️Putin's spokesman Peskov confirmed on Friday that the U.S. and Russia have reached understandings to unofficially continue observing the terms of the New START treaty while discussing a new agreement 🇷🇺Peskov said: "There is an understanding, including this was discussed in Abu Dhabi, that both sides will take responsible positions and both sides recognize the need to begin negotiations on this issue as soon as possible" 🇺🇸A Trump adviser familiar with the negotiations confirmed to @MarcACaputo that the U.S. and Russia agreed to maintain the status quo. 🇺🇸“There's no plans to start building more nuclear weapons and re-arming so you could say it's status quo”, the Trump adviser said
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@james_acton32 That kind of fits with the assessment that the it would take a few months, at least, to implement upload plans with current operational and manpower limitations. So the President's "we won't extend" and the advisors "we have no plans for the next few months" fits together. (2/2)
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@james_acton32 The advisor says its the "status quo" because we don't have any plans to re-arm (for the next 6 months, as that's the time-frame they talked about). Seems like a case of "we don't have any plans in the very near term, and you can call it whatever you want." (1/2)
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@tshugart3 CRS analysts are not allowed to make recommendations. And, if they try, it will be removed in one of the five levels of the review process.
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This really is making a mountain out of molehill. CRS reports routinely present all kind of options.
But that’s what they are: OPTIONs, not RECOMMENDATIONs. There is zero indication of any impending policy change here, folks.
theguardian.com/world/2026/feb…
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@DarylGKimball @BarakRavid You know the answers to those questions.
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If the @BarakRavid correct and there is an understanding, the question becomes: does Trump have a smart strategy for what to do vis-a-vis Russia on n-arms control? Does he have a coherent plan for bilateral (not trilateral) discussions with China? See: armscontrol.org/pressroom/2026…
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
A source wuth knowledge said the practical implications were that both U.S. and Russia would agree to observe the deal's terms for at least six months, during which time negotiations on a potential new deal would take place
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@walberque @russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla I'd argue that some of those things are not even on the list of "all the things" because they wouldn't even be on the horizon until the current program of record finishes about 20 years from now. Then they don't count as "responses to NST expiration."
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@AmyWoolf8 @russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla More of “what are all the things” rather than “what are the most likely things”.
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All this suggests that the upcoming "upload" is just a symbolic step that is supposed to show that the US "is serious" about responding to China's (alleged) buildup. It's deeply unserious, if you ask me.
Kingston Reif@KingstonAReif
Vipin Narang..suggests a more modest deployment of up to 500 additional nuclear weapons, mainly to aim at China’s new silos. “There is no magic number. It all depends on how much risk you want to take,”.. Franklin Miller..thinks about 300 would suffice. economist.com/international/…
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@walberque @russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla Most of these are well outside the uploads timeframe and would be extraordinarily expensive (expand Pantex? new refurbishment and production facilities? NNSA can't build currently planned facilities!) And we'll never reconvert B-1s. AF has been trying to retire them for 30 years.
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@russianforces @shashj @KomissarWhipla Modifying the Ohio SSBNs back to 24 tubes in additiona to uploading, re-certification of the B-52s and B-1s for the nuclear mission, an expansion to Pantex and additional facilities for warhead refurbishment, resumption of production of SNM - these all would be pretty serious...
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@walberque @russianforces @krakek1 Not all MMIII can carry 3 warheads. PBVs were changed on 150, and those can only carry 1 warhead. So full upload on300 missiles would add 600. It would also take a good bit of time and manpower. Can’t just tuck a warhead under your arm, run out to silo, and plop it on.
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@russianforces @krakek1 Minuteman-IIIs carry 3 warheads, so a US ICBM upload would go from 400 to 1200 - is that right? And then the Tridents IID5s can carry 8-12 warheads and if the Ohio-Class submarines are modified back to 24 tubes, the SSBN fleet can go from 760 to max of 4,320?
What about Russia?
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