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GutsPolyArc
1.6K posts
GutsPolyArc
@GutsPoly
@Polymarket enjoyer @zscdao Member
Georgia Beigetreten Mart 2026
453 Folgt298 Follower
Betting on Norway to win the FIFA World Cup. Well, it's not because I believe they can win it all, but because I think they will easily win over Iraq in their first match, and the odds will increase from 2,5c to 3,5c (a 40% increase).
Meanwhile the odds for a simple victory 1X2 over Iraq is 1,27 (27%). I also think Norway will beat Senegal, which is match number 2, so the winner odds might increase more, but I prefer to sell after the Iraq match instead of speculating more.
Norway -1,5 to 1,64 odds could be worth it too, but prefering the World Cup Winner bet instead in case the result will end 1-0.
NFA. DYOR.
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@banan_crypto @CrispPredict its cause of too many bots he working on now as he said
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A weather trader with $112K PnL lost $5K yesterday. Mb smth is actually wrong with weather markets?
Famous Polymarket trader "HondaCivic" unexpectedly ended yesterday with -$5K PnL
I went to @CrispPredict and opened his acc there [app.crisp.trade/trader/0x15cef…]
And found a trade that caused him that big loss
It happened on "Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?" market
He had bought NO shares at 99.8c. And short after, they went to zero
In his tweet, he's explained that happened because of an error of his sniper bot
But I think the problem here's also in the lack of liquidity
It looks like the bot absorbed the whole order book with that $5K
Such a problem won't happen once LP rewards are returned to these markets
The Polymarket team must do this soon
ProMint@ProMint_X
Weather Markets on Polymarket are bleeding 🩸 After that mis-resolution mess, the Polymarket team completely shelved the entire weather sector. It’s been 8 days now and rewards are still nowhere to be found. Spreads are massive right now and the order books are completely empty. The team is radio silent - no updates, nothing. A ton of users had built their entire trading strategies around this sector to earn a living. Now, they're forced to either sit on their hands or act as market makers for free. All the team needs to do is bring back the rewards, and these markets will instantly come back to life. Still waiting!
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@tsybka @PolymarketTrade you think ebola will be stopped in Africa, and hanta would be cured ?
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@goatyishere @PolymarketSport be careful with NBA, odd there goes up and down so fast , congratz with cook
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Made over $800 in just a few days on @PolymarketSport
I was testing a strategy of buying shares at 95%
When the outcome of a match was already effectively decided
But the market still offered a free 5% upside
As you can see, it actually works
My profile: @goatyishere?via=goaty" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@goatyishere?v…
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~97% of day traders lose money.
~85% of crypto traders aren't profitable.
~91% of retail futures/options traders lose money.
~90% of startups fail.
I turned $150 to $84,000 in one year on prediction markets.
I guess I just got lucky and I could do the same thing in a casino.
Koki@k0k1eth
Shayne Coplan and Luana Lopes are both young self made billionaires. BUT: ~70% of accounts on Polymarket are in a loss ~74% of accounts on Kalshi are in a loss The house is winning while the majority here is losing money. And yes, prediction markets are gambling platforms.
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Smart money on Polymarket doesn’t care who wins the World Cup
> Bought 46 out of 48 teams (skipped only France and Belgium)
> Bought very cheap Yes shares (0.4c - 3.4c).
> Current status: Up approximately $450,000.
> Max potential payout: ~$4.37 million if one of his teams wins.
CT not ready for the era where math nerds replace sports analysts on prediction markets
ih8y@DmitriyUngarov
Found a juicy edge on the 2026 World Cup thanks to Predict Parity Today i was scrolling through Polymarket on Predict Parity and this one immediately stood out: Top 7 Favorites Basket right now costs 77.3c → $1 payout if any of them wins. > Current prices: -> France - 18.2c -> Spain - 16.7c -> England - 11.4c -> Brazil - 9.1c -> Argentina - 8.4c -> Portugal - 8.3c -> Germany - 5.2c With $100 you can buy the full basket and get $129.37 back if any of these 7 wins → +$29.37 profit (+29.4%). Still feels like decent value, but ofc NFA! Top 8 or Top 10 also possible but the return drops (23% and 17% respectively). Top 7 here looks like the sweet spot for me. Calculation Example 👇
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🧠 I FOUND A CLAUDE BOT ON POLYMARKET: 38,712 TRADES, $148K PROFIT - STILL PRINTING
Meet 0x9F5fFE76a818 Joined March 2026, started active trading in late April.
> 21,353 predictions → 38,712 now (+17,359 trades)
> Profit: $94,259 → $148,579.69 (+$54,320)
> Still hit 1,000+ trades/day at peak. Still buying 1-50¢.
HIS NEW BIGGEST WINS (FRESH ADDITIONS)
> BTC Up @ 41.5¢ → 5,082 shares → +$2,972 (+140%)
> BTC Up @ 11.2¢ → 5,476 shares → +$1,790 (+292%)
> BTC Down @ 22.7¢ → 6,476 shares → +$1,708 (+116%)
> BTC Down @ 32.4¢ → 6,535 shares → +$1,670 (+78%)
> BTC Up @ 45.2¢ → 2,993 shares → +$1,640 (+121%)
HIS ORIGINAL HOMERUNS (STILL ON THE BOARD)
> BTC Down @ 51.4¢ → 10,651 shares → +$5,175 (+94%)
> BTC Down @ 33.6¢ → 3,916 shares → +$2,599 (+197%)
> BTC Up @ 2.0¢ → 4,694 shares → +$1,868 (+2,026%)
> BTC Down @ 1.1¢ → 3,748 shares → +$1,222 (+2,954%)
> BTC Up @ 1.0¢ → 5,902 shares → +$1,336 (+2,187%)
WHY THIS IS STILL A CLAUDE BOT
> 1,000+ trades/day at peak - inhuman consistency for months
> Buys from 1¢ up to 50¢ - never chases 99¢
> Wins 100-2,900% when right, especially on sub‑10¢ entries
> Zero emotion, identical pattern across 38k+ trades
> PnL curve is steady - no blow‑ups, no panic
THE STRATEGY (UNCHANGED - JUST MORE VOLUME)
> Buys directional 5‑min BTC contracts at 1-50¢
> Wins 2-30× on cheap entries, 50-100% on midrange
> Scales size up to 10k shares per window
38,712 trades. $148k profit in ~7 weeks.
No weekends. No pauses. No mercy.
Bimba@BimbaCrypto
🧠 I FOUND A CLAUDE BOT ON POLYMARKET: 21,353 TRADES, $94K PROFIT - STARTED TRADING IN LATE APRIL Meet 0x9F5fFE76a818. Joined March 2026, but only started active trading in late April. > ~21,353 predictions in about 2-3 weeks = 1,000+ trades/day at peak All-time profit: $94,259 HIS BIGGEST WINS - ALL FROM LATE APRIL TO MAY > Down @ 51.4¢ → 10,651 shares → +$5,175 (+94%) > Down @ 33.6¢ → 3,916 shares → +$2,599 (+197%) > Up @ 2¢ → 4,694 shares → +$1,868 (+2,026%) > Down @ 1.1¢ → 3,748 shares → +$1,222 (+2,954%) > Up @ 1¢ → 5,902 shares → +$1,336 (+2,187%) WHY THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLAUDE BOT > 1,000+ trades/day at peak - inhuman consistency > Buys from 1¢ up to 50¢ - never chases 99¢ > Wins 100-2,900% when right, especially on sub-10¢ entries > Zero emotion, identical pattern across 21k trades > PnL curve is steady - no blow-ups, no panic THE STRATEGY > Buys directional 5-min BTC contracts at 1-50¢ > Wins 2-30× on cheap entries, 50-100% on mid-range > Scales size up to 10k shares per window 21,353 trades. $94k profit in ~3 weeks. Cloudy bot quietly printing.
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@BimbaCrypto @NBA @Polymarket @PolymarketSport i seen i seen , but its now interestion situation , that 3 teams that stay in , winning one another and losing to second , so its would be very interesting to see
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@GutsPoly @NBA @Polymarket @PolymarketSport The New York Knicks advanced to the Finals today.
They beat Cleveland 4-0.
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2026 NBA Champion
>OKC at 48% is probably fair, but i think its better to see after tomorrows game , can be much lower after it
>Knicks at 28% feels too high. Good team, big fanbase, nice story, but market is already pricing them like they are basically finals level.
>Spurs at 26% is mostly Wemby premium. I get it, he can change everything fast, but this price is more about belief than proof right now.
>Not saying Knicks or Spurs can’t win, but this market already feels like people are buying the movie trailer, not the full season.
>Next game is OCT vs Spurs so odd would be changed , Spurs leading 6-3 in games this season in finals its 2-2 so this game will change everything
Market link below:
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Found a very interesting trader on Polymarket
This trader has only 13 trades
100% soccer
He gathered his thoughts at the World Cup
He took: France, Spain, England, Portugal and Norway
Total portfolio of $36,000
Looks modest by the standards of what we are used to seeing
But here the point is not about the amount, but about the approach to selecting the winners
I like his portfolio and ambiguous choice at the World Cup
What do you think?
Who will win the World Cup this year?
Profile this trader: @smoovster?r=tom310#PKyKZ7K" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@smoovster?r=t…
Moysha@mmoyshaa
Will France win the 2026 World Cup? $29.4m total volume But only ~$687k liquidity And structurally this doesn’t look like a normal prediction market anymore, but more like a position heavy system that just keeps absorbing new flow without real repricing Price stays locked in a tight range: 0.17 - 0.18 YES 0.82 - 0.83 NO And it’s been holding this corridor for weeks flow is heavily one sided ~90% of recent trades are retail buying YES Because 0.18¢ looks like cheap exposure But the other side of the market tells a very different story The NO side is not retail driven It’s highly concentrated in a small group of large holders And one wallet alone holds ~42% of all NO supply But the key detail is not even that The same wallet is also heavily positioned on YES (~18¢) Meaning it is not simply betting for or against France It is sitting on both sides of the market at the same time And when you zoom out, the structure becomes clear YES = 9.7k+ holders, fragmented retail positioning NO = < 700 holders, extreme top-heavy concentration And between them sits a structural player effectively anchoring both sides Another layer is time YES = newer capital (0 - 200 days) NO = legacy positions (500 - 700+ days) This is not one synchronized market It is multiple generations of capital stacked on top of each other Liquidity is extremely thin relative to total volume So any larger order creates sharp spikes that immediately revert No real trend formation Just constant absorption and reversal And the key point is not who is right on France It’s that this is no longer a clean prediction market It’s a structure where a major dual sided holder, combined with thin liquidity, effectively keeps the entire price range contained Market link: #Wu6tare" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/2026-fif…
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@EndWokeness send her back to elephants , and its done , would be a lesson for others
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Why are food chains in the US getting rid of self-serve? Watch & read the replies:
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🔥🚨JUST IN: Former NBA player Michael Beasley just leaked the UFC Freedom 250 dome that will be built at the White House
"White House is huge."
Beasley: "I don't think y'all realize how big this is."
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@HoopsCrave please no , imagine 10 players with Curry memories, not an interesting game would be to watch
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Elon Musk says that Neuralink will let users download an NBA player’s jump shot into muscle memory by 2028.
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What could’ve possibly happened to warrant that kind of reaction?
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Pyth Terminal is finally live and it’s straight up made for you Polymarket degens:
> app.pyth.com is open right now, no gatekeeping. You can watch charts live: 3000+ real time price feeds starting from cocoa and coffee ending with BTC.
>Compare Pyth prices against outside benchmarks, and even flip publishers on/off to see how the feed is actually built
>Flip publishers on and off to see exactly how the feed gets built.Prices are public, feeds are visible, no api key needed for the free tier
>Pyth started as a verification layer for Polymarket traders, but now it’s standing on its own as the main self-serve data for 700+ blockchain apps
if you trade prediction markets, this is the kind of tool you want open before you place real size
morph@morpphhhaw
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