Michael hines

@engp2271 @MarioNawfal @grok Based on this...which part is unacceptable to iran hardliners?

@MarioNawfal @Grok what are the details of the draft agreement?

RECAP: The Iran deal that looked "hours away" suddenly became a lot murkier. While Trump continued insisting a deal will be signed tomorrow and claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately afterward, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly cooled expectations, saying there are no plans to sign tomorrow, though it could happen in the next couple of days. At the same time, details from the draft agreement are leaking inside Iran. And they're causing a political firestorm. Hardline figures and protesters are attacking Foreign Minister Araghchi, accusing him of giving away too much on sanctions, nuclear restrictions, U.S. troop withdrawals, and especially the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Demonstrators gathered outside the Foreign Ministry, while reports suggest Iranian authorities are even censoring anti-deal criticism on domestic messaging platforms. The emerging picture is that the biggest threat to the agreement may no longer be Washington or Tehran's negotiators, but opposition inside Iran itself. Meanwhile, senior Israeli officials reportedly blasted the deal as harmful to Israeli interests and complained that Israel has largely been sidelined from the negotiating process. One official reportedly described it as a temporary political arrangement designed to buy time rather than a durable settlement. Diplomacy remains intense. Trump is expected to hold separate meetings with the leaders of Qatar, the UAE and Egypt on the sidelines of the G7 summit, highlighting how heavily Gulf states are now involved in shaping the outcome. Elsewhere in Europe, migration tensions continued to dominate headlines. Large demonstrations took place in Rome calling for tougher immigration policies, while Belfast saw counter-protests after recent unrest linked to a high-profile stabbing case. And in Washington, Senator Tom Cotton introduced legislation that would significantly deepen U.S.-Israeli intelligence cooperation, making it far more difficult for future administrations to limit intelligence sharing with Israel. The biggest story remains the same: everyone is talking as if an Iran deal is close, yet almost every major player involved is sending contradictory signals. Markets are betting on peace. The politicians are selling peace. The negotiators are still arguing over the details.

@sahilkapur As a spurs fan, though, you worry: LeBron and Shaq had to change teams to win

First ever NBA finals trip SHAQUILLE O’NEAL. Age 23. Swept 0-4 in 1995. Today he has four championships. LEBRON JAMES. Age 22. Swept 0-4 in 2007. Today he has four championships. VICTOR WEMBANYAMA. Age 22. Lost 1-4 in 2026. (❓❓❓)

@EndyTrader @XaviercMiller Lots of folks said rest didnt matter because they were so young.

@XaviercMiller OKC was supposed to take Spurs out if they were healthy. Plus, the Knicks got way more rest than the Spurs, who just got off a Game 7 with OKC. Believe it or not, rest plays a big part in who wins the finals.

The reason they have to fire Mitch is because there are no guarantees you’ll get back here. Injuries happen. Free agency happens. Windows close way faster than people think. This team is ready to win now. They need a coach who’s ready to do it now, not one they have to wait on to become prepared. You can’t lose a series in 5 games you were favored to win while blowing double-digit leads, mismanaging timeouts & having terrible rotations in every game while being the more talented team. Someone has to pay for that. They easily would have won this series with a good coach.

@Wilson__Valdez Spurs fan?

Welp. (Begrudging) congrats to the few good New Yorkers who follow me.

@SpencerHakimian What poll?

NEW: Trump’s approval rating hits 28%. The lowest for any president in U.S. history.

@BowTiedLobster @BillPilgrim18 Got me there. But causing a depression still doesnt make sense to me, or the idea folks will want to deal with the us.

@HinesAllTheTime @BillPilgrim18 “China which has oil”

To anyone who doesn't understand the fake deal theater, here's what's going to happen: the IRGC is going to approve the MOU that the American negotiators purposefully softpedaled, under Trump's instructions, with terms that are totally unacceptable to Trump and the US. Trump will backtrack, either adding conditions again before IRGC publication, or (if it's published) saying it is nonsense and not what they were working on (this is a lie). We will go right back to where we were. But with oil prices still suppressed. (Note: they may start creeping up; some of the big boys are getting long). Why? Because Trump and the IRGC both want to speed along the energy crisis. Sure, if Trump can blockade the IRGC while he opens the strait by destroying radar, shooting down drones, and destroying speedboats, he absolutely will prefer that option. It means he gets total leverage over the IRGC and can get whatever he wants. But ultimately, that won't be feasible. Because very few ships will want to pass through a strait were they're being attacked. A little will trickle out, that's it. So energy crisis here we come. The sooner the energy crisis, the sooner Trump gets supreme leverage over almost everyone in a myriad of ways. I'm not going to go through the litany of bully opportunities Trump will have. @BowTiedLobster has gone into depth in this field. Delving deep into Trump's mind is a real stretch for me. It's taxing to my system. Trump had a reputation as an extremely aggressive cutthroat in real estate for a reason. When he had leverage, he pushed it to the absolute maximum. His "allies" were really just people he pushed into being his vassals. (Hm, would you look at that.) His adversaries, he hurt as much as he could. Now he's in his final term as president, and he has the most powerful military in the world by a mile. He's using that leverage, and he's taking it to the limit. He's already calling on Europe and others to monitor and secure the strait. He knows he has leverage, relative to them. They're much more energy dependent. But if they don't give him his free ride, he'll just keep the stranglehold going. Eventually, he wants to control Iran like he controls Venezuela. he wants another vassal state. And he will not concede that plan. Credit again to @BowTiedLobster for first bringing this theory of action to my attention. One of the first things I read from him was the assertion that both Trump and the IRGC wanted to stall for time. This matched too well with what I was seeing from both sides. I had to try out its verity, and found it overlayed perfectly. Ask yourself, why does it seem like both sides are stalling? Why does it seem like we're stuck in a perpetual dance, each side pushing terms the other will never agree to? Because they both want this. The only difference is Trump is still testing out other, even better options (a great deal that puts him in charge, or taking over the strait while maintaining the blockade). Those just won't work. All the while, Trump and the administration are making sure the markets stay calm and prices suppressed. When this explodes it will be everyone else's fault. The IRGC, for supposedly lying in their negotiations (they didn't). Europe, the GCC, and everyone else for not helping with the strait. Etc. etc. All to gain maximum leverage. To be the greatest of the losers. So energy crisis here we come, all the faster.

@_MartinKelly_ Trump says *same thing he's been saying*

Trump has announced on Truth Social that once the deal with Iran is signed tomorrow, the Strait of Hormuz will be "OPEN TO ALL". He goes on to state that at some point in the future, the U.S. will secure the "nuclear dust" in Iran for disposal. I still think Iran will continue to control the SoH. Many ships will probably try and run for it. But PGSA will say they don't have permission and ships will be turned around or fired upon. Then IRGC will make a VHF broadcast which states that the SoH is controlled by the PGSA, anyone wishing to pass must first obtain permission from them, whilst DT continues to say the Strait of Hormuz is open. Ships will continue to transit under US air support. But as we saw last night; this does not guarantee ship safety.

@QuietTraveler23 @BujokMr Amen, and this to every chattering account confidently declaring anything has changed.

@BujokMr If nothing happens, will you stfu?

Well well well, scheduled to be signed tomorrow, during which the White House UFC event takes place. Do you guys see what’s about to happen? There’s a reason they scheduled the fight to occur on the Sunday night New Moon, and are going to be running patriotic, military recruitment advertisements the entire event. I can’t be the only one that sees this

@BowTiedLobster @BillPilgrim18 We think companies will build in the us during a depression, with tarfiffs adding costs and for goods most can't afford because of the depression? We think Europe will be swayed by a guy seen as causing a depression rather than go with China, which has oil and Iran's back?

@HinesAllTheTime @BillPilgrim18 Whichever group of people wants a global depression and loads of factories and energy production facilities to be build in the U.S. in the next few years. They won. You keep saying things like “dems reign in” and “precarious political position” like it matters. It’s over.

@BrettErickson28 @roccoco29488257 Thats what would make it worse: folks are going to see it as a deal, so he's not going to backtrack of he goes through with it

@roccoco29488257 Reality is reality, regardless of whether or not one is happy about it. It’s good that you can understand that.

Many people look at the rumored terms of a potential Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran and, correctly, view it as total U.S. defeat. But that’s misunderstanding the most important victory the U.S. have given Iran: Safety. For nearly five decades, the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby have been trying to find a President foolish enough to buy their propaganda and attack Iran. For 47 years, they searched, spending their entire careers in the pursuit of war. Now, they got it… and failed in the most disastrous way anyone could have thought. It wasn’t just a loss, it was an embarrassment that will forever impact the legacy of Donald Trump. For the next 250 years, no American President will ever even THINK about attacking Iran again. Not after this failure. Not after this embarrassment. Any person that pitches “attack Iran” will be laughed out of the room. While Iran will irrefutably exit this conflict in a far stronger strategic position than they entered, that is not the most significant accomplishment they have secured in this War. The greatest victory for the Iranian regime is not frozen assets. It’s not the Strait of Hormuz. It’s the assurance of knowing they have embarrassed the United States so thoroughly that no President will attack Iran for centuries.

@BowTiedLobster @BillPilgrim18 Who won?

@HinesAllTheTime @BillPilgrim18 It’s all over already. The strait has been blocked for 4 months. A massive energy/economic crisis is baked into the cake There’s nothing to reign in. He won

@rickjeff78 But...he can't. Why do folks act like he can jist declare something like this is us politics? If he says its fee free and it isn't, does he just ignore that? Do the ships and countries?

Claim he made a great deal and walk away. ✅️ It's happening.

@Nostre_damus Iran rejected any signing tomorrow before this announcement

Trump says signing deal with Iran tomorrow on his birthday Iran will get control of the strait and charge a fee

@BillPilgrim18 The same high prices puts trump in an even more precarious political position with the midterms, and Europe knows that the worse that goes for him, the better chances dems gain power to reign him in. If they were going to intervene, they wouldnt wait til things get worse

@HinesAllTheTime Europe faces severe repercussions. That's the whole point. This isn't about making friends. This is about bludgeoning them with a big stick, and in this case the stick is sky-high energy costs for an energy dependent EU.

Repubs are going after a candidate. Here's why im only blaming dems

@DarioCpx When?

Mark this date: 22nd of June ⚠️ On this date those who are short WTI futures won’t find enough crude oil stored at Cushing to deliver, they will either be forced to rush in the spot market to make deliveries or close their positions potentially igniting a squeeze The whole market is currently heavily short oil via speculative contracts, both institutional and retail (~130% UCO short interest + SCO ETFs AUM outright give a good idea of the magnitude) Oil traders and oil executives know this is coming and no development on the diplomatic front will make any difference

@todd_butler This will be why they both sides in the future: the repub they voted for screwed them over, the dems in power offer to help but its the same help as everyone, so they don't feel appreciated/recognized. And shes still gonna vote republican

Oh well, cry that song to somebody else. Everybody was warned and y'all chose wrong. Live with the consequences.

@EnergyAbsurdity We think a regime savvy enough to outwit the us hasn't thought about this?

🚨Iran is slitting its own geopolitical throat at Hormuz By repeatedly threatening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has forced Gulf producers to build pipelines and pursue other alternatives that will soon make its leverage obsolete. Once complete, the Mullahs lose their strongest card. 🧵👇

@BrettErickson28 None of maga will accept that, though. And for as much as they excuse, think they'd lose their minds and him backing off last time was a hint

I think you would have to be either insanely naive, or exceptionally disingenuous to believe the United States will not be delivering pallets of cash to Iran to end this conflict. “Humanitarian aid”, “Gulf payments”, “Security guarantees”… whatever you want to call it, they are payments made at the authorization of the United States to Iran.

@TheIranianzg3z Trump admin has already pretty forcefully rejected this

BREAKING: According to details circulating from the ongoing negotiations, the proposed MoU would unfold in two phases. The first phase would include an immediate regional ceasefire, the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets held in Qatar, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade with the Strait of Hormuz reopening under Iranian management within 30 days. If both sides fulfill their commitments during that period, a 60 day negotiation process would then begin to work toward a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and the future of the U.S. military presence in the region.