Stewart

@a_kane47 Pretty sure in 2 years, if they’re still around, fees will still be sitting at 1-2 cents a contract. Only difference is polymarket will have increased theirs to the industry standard.

This is an interesting angle. Of course in two years, when the fees and spread go basically 0.00% , would AGA run the same pitch?

@ddetente7 @QuantRob @Bitcoin_Teddy Por que no los dos?

@QuantRob @Bitcoin_Teddy Either rage bait or the dumbest shit I've ever heard.

This is just one of countless unethical ways money is made online. This video shows a poker bot farm. Multiple bots sit at the same table and share their cards in real time. Because they know each other’s cards, they never bluff or trap each other. They only bet aggressively when the human is statistically behind, and fold otherwise. A single bot farm like this can make more than the house!!

@inga1937 @JonathanDCohen1 I doubt I'd ever be able to remember that to the end of the sentence.

Never forget that a consumer in a +EV prize context can be an economic rational agent that has nothing to do with generic or average motivations that are expressed as a revealed preference.

Kalshi runs these super predatory, untruthful ads. And now 41% of prediction market users say their main reason for using the platform is to make money

@wardenenergy81 @a_kane47 They *might* not care, at best. Mature markets show what exchanges think of winners they can't tax.

@Random501901 @a_kane47 Disagree.

On an expected value basis measured in immediate mark out, retail traders will lose trading every single product. The key nuances that set PMs apart from sports books are: 1) how much will the retail user lose on each trade? 2) can the retail user close the spread/fee they pay on each trade?, and critically: 3) what about the retail trader that doesn’t lose. Will she be able to continue to trade?

@knowRowan @iam_smx He completely whiffed the telling of it.

@iam_smx Heres the joke 😂😂😂

Elon Musk sharing his favorite and funniest economist joke 😂 “Two economists are going for a walk in the forest, and they come across a pile of sht. One economist says, “I’ll pay you $100 to eat a pile of sht.” The other takes the $100 and eats it Then they keep walking and come across another pile of sht. The second economist says, “Okay, I’ll give you $100 to eat a pile of sht.” So he gives him $100, and he eats it too Then they say, “Wait a second, we both have the same amount of money, and we both ate a pile of sh*t. Oh my God, It sounds like we increased the economy by $200”

@DustinGouker Who are charging fees comparable with sportsbook vig!

@DustinGouker Also kind of funny to be talking about "competition" when 95% of the market currently belongs to one company.

What are they even talking about? Windows?

@DustinGouker Moar feet pics!

There’s a super secret version of my newsletters* if you are interested in signing up *I just text you stuff that even I don’t feel comfortable shitposting on Twitter

@HadickM @DustinGouker Do you apply your bar to Kalshi?

@DustinGouker It is disgusting. You don’t file criminal charges because you are having a jurisdictional dispute and want to collect taxes. Especially when it’s because a single rogue AG has political ambitions. I don’t know about you, but I have a higher bar for professional ethics.

Nonsense. States are using whatever is in their toolbox.

@wardenenergy81 @a_kane47 not really. Winning retail traders can dampen the experience for losers, and they increase the spread if they're good enough, as the market makers have to protect themselves. Add in that most of these exchanges are being set up with a house mm, and no, they won't want them.

@a_kane47 why wouldnt they be allowed to continue to trade? the PMs just want liquidity. winning retail traders is good for the business for organic growth.

@ToonMatthewT1 This is so astonishingly stupid you must have a scam going

People way underestimate the odds of a perfect imo. There will be one in the next 20 years. I would take Y on a perfect bracket this year at 4c. Any takers?

@DustinGouker x.com/nypost/status/…

@Random501901 Just the CEO is, the original graphic did not. But he’s still promoting it 🤷‍♂️

Using the trademarked term 🧐

@DustinGouker "just add it to the tower"

@DustinGouker Which they pulled but it's already hit the press. Lawsuit to follow?

@WALLACHLEGAL @G_Insider Should that law firm link lead to a recusal ordinarily?

"Kalshi may have benefited from an unusual sequence of judicial recusals in the Arizona case." Via @G_Insider gamingamerica.com/news/kalshi-ar…

@datadashboards @Kalshi Feels like their strategy is just rake in the fees for as long as they can until the party ends through a combination of competition and legal issues. Not sure how raising funds fits into all of that. Don't think the investors are looking for a short term cash grab.

As one of the prediction market data guys, I thought I'd drop some additional context: @Kalshi's number whilst outlandish is likely not far off the mark. If you apply Kalshi's documented fee structure to their exposed taker trades you get to ~$118M. The flat 1% fee assumption the author made is likely even more accurate if you believe most of Kalshi's flow comes through @RobinhoodApp - on Robinhood you can only place taker orders, with a flat $0.01 fee per contract routed to Kalshi. At that structure, 1% of notional is the right approximation. Kalshi's 30-day notional: $11,004,380,330. There is some under-representation in onchain prediction market fees too. Most people track prediction market fees by only looking at dollar/stablecoin fees, when nearly all onchain PMs also collect fees denominated in shares. If I'm not mistaken, most of this data comes from @DefiLlama, who currently measure fees this way. For liquid venues, share fees can be valued at the time of trade. There will be some discrepancy given tokens resolve to either 0 or 1, but imo it's a more accurate picture than excluding them entirely. Many prediction markets will also merge opposing shares to redeem collateral before resolution, so you can expect venues like @Polymarket, @predictdotfun and @trylimitless to show higher actual fees once you account for this. Predict is running ~40% higher. Polymarket closer to ~80%. Finally, @opinionlabsxyz launched a 50% maker rebate program 3 days ago, meaning a significant portion of daily USDT fees is now being routed back to users. Current dashboards don't fully reflect this yet - minor discrepancy for now, but worth flagging.

@SoonTech_OFCL @felixprehn Is it legal, or just very hard to prosecute? At some point, business decisions that lead to verifiable increases in death rates has to cross the line, right?

@felixprehn This is brutal but not surprising—PE in healthcare is basically a wealth extraction scheme at human expense. The fact that deaths rise while executives cash out billions is horrifying, and yet completely legal.

Private equity firms bought 500 hospitals. Death rates in their emergency rooms went up 13%. They fired 12% of the staff. Then they paid themselves billions in dividends. A Harvard study just confirmed what doctors already knew: people are dying so investors can hit quarterly targets. Exactly what happens. A PE firm buys a hospital using debt. The debt gets placed on the hospital's balance sheet, not the firm's. Now the hospital owes hundreds of millions it never borrowed. To service that debt, the hospital cuts costs. Costs mean nurses. The numbers from the Harvard/University of Chicago study are horrifying. After PE acquisition, emergency department salary spending dropped 18.2%. ICU salary spending dropped 15.9%. Hospital-wide employees were cut 11.6%. Emergency department deaths rose 13%, seven additional deaths per 10,000 visits. A separate study found patients undergoing surgery at PE-acquired hospitals had 17% higher odds of dying within 90 days. Steward Health Care, owned by Cerberus Capital, filed bankruptcy with $9 billion in debt after closing hospitals across Massachusetts. The CEO lived on a $40 million yacht while emergency rooms went dark. Eight hospitals serving 2 million people nearly disappeared because a PE fund extracted more cash than the system could survive. The private equity industry has poured over $1 trillion into healthcare. They operate a quarter of ERs nationwide. This isn't going away. The investing angle nobody talks about. Non-PE hospital operators like HCA Healthcare (HCA) and Tenet (THC) are the direct beneficiaries. Every time a PE hospital closes or deteriorates, patients flow to the nearest competitor. HCA has returned 1,200% since 2011. Patient volume from PE closures is a structural tailwind nobody's pricing in. Medical staffing firms (AMN Healthcare, Cross Country) charge premium rates specifically because PE hospitals cut staff. The staffing shortage IS the business model for these companies. The disruption play: outpatient surgical centers (SCA Health, now part of UnitedHealth) are pulling profitable procedures out of hospitals entirely. PE-owned hospitals lose their highest-margin surgeries to outpatient, and the death spiral accelerates. Pull up tradevision and monitor healthcare M&A alerts, hospital closure filings, and patient volume migration data. When a PE-owned hospital announces "restructuring," the patient volume shift to competitors like HCA starts within 30 days. That 30-day window is when the competitor's earnings revisions haven't updated yet. Free to try. (a private equity firm bought your local hospital. borrowed $500 million in the hospital's name. fired 12% of the nurses. emergency room deaths rose 13%. then they paid themselves dividends. nobody went to prison. they're currently buying another hospital.)

@MiklRngr @JimmySecUK What? "The only thing stopping X is the thing that's stopping X" is a pretty damn stupid statement to make.

Since you are struggling, let me explain it for you. Hegseth said that the only thing stopping shipping in the gulf is Iran shooting at civilian maritime shipping. That is a fact! Actually it is even MORE factual because the shipping being attacked by Iran is not even transiting the Hormuz. They are attacking unarmed Maritime shipping anchored in the territorial waters of other countries (Such as the Safesea Vishnu). In so doing, they killed a civilian maritime sailor from a non belligerent country. But that is exactly what terrorists do - attack civilian targets and kill civilian people to effect political change. Do you have any counter to any of that? Because to have me explain the most obvious and basic thing to you makes you look like a childish pedant. @grok - please confirm or refute the following factual questions/implied claims: 1. Is anyone other than Iran targeting civilian shipping in the Gulf? 2. Was the Safesea Vishnu attacked while it was at anchor in Iraqi territorial waters? 3. How far away from the Strait of Hormuz was the Safesea Vishnu when it was attacked by Iran? 4. Were the reported deaths and injuries of the crew citizens of non belligerent nations? Please use shorter answers. Thanks in advance.

I'm genuinely struggling to find words to adequately describe how stupid this is.

@ArchStantonGold @joonlee @roundrobin42 I think people could be forgiven for thinking otherwise since that's what the exchanges themselves and their various paid advertising channels are putting on blast...

NEW VIDEO: What started in sports is spreading everywhere. Over the past year, I've been reporting on how gambling became embedded in sports -- and how it's changing the way we experience the world far beyond the games themselves. youtube.com/watch?v=oBBnPQ…

@6529Guardian @ElleBeyoud Rubber stamping always is.

@ElleBeyoud Wow that was fast!

Speedy review at White House OMB of the CFTC's forthcoming prediction markets rulemaking concept release. Latest update at OIRA shows their review was completed on Monday.