@harshapandav @glcarlstrom Iran can't have both a policy of trying to destroy Israel and a guarantee that Israel won't fight back
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Bubba Raskin
16K posts
Bubba Raskin
@bubbaraskin
Digital Nomading. Eating pastries. Working in startups.
Somewhere Beigetreten Haziran 2010
1.2K Folgt598 Follower
@glcarlstrom In Iran's position as a sovereign state, it wouldnt take a deal that doesn't guarantee an end to future hostilities, foreign interference. Israel repeatedly killing top negotiators, and US attacking multiple times during negotiations or declared ceasefire, sabotage trust+chances.
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We're at a moment where each party to the Gulf war has an argument for why it should continue fighting—and where each one may end up overreaching.
1) Iran misses its moment of maximal leverage to end the war on favorable terms. Instead of trading Hormuz for a deal that includes sanctions relief, it decides to keep inflicting pain on the global economy, hoping to deter future attack or secure a better deal.
Instead its control of the strait becomes a wasting asset: it embarrasses Trump at home and further hardens the positions of his Gulf allies, both of which make it harder for him to end the war. America and Israel ramp up strikes on Iranian infrastructure, with devastating long-term consequences.
2) America launches a ground operation, which (predictably) proves neither a knockout blow to Iran nor a victory image for Trump.
It winds up having to hold chunks of Iranian territory. Casualties compel Trump to send even more troops. Far from ending the war, an invasion sucks America further in. Meanwhile the energy shock gets much, much worse.
3) Israel encourages America to keep going, and winds up rupturing its relationship with America. The war is already unpopular with Americans; more of them think it will benefit Israel (55%) than their own country (30%), according to our most recent poll.
Imagine that it drags on. American troops are killed in combat. Inflation soars. A wounded Trump administration blames Netanyahu for leading it into a quagmire. The midterms become a referendum on America's relationship with Israel. None of this is entirely far-fetched; indeed, the blame game has already begun. economist.com/middle-east-an…
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@MazMHussain Yeah, you have long ago passed the border into pretty blatant antisemitism. Time to block.
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Zionists really dismantled America for spare parts. Almost have to respect the ruthless commitment.
Financial Times@FT
The Iran war will cement China’s superpower status ft.trib.al/Dfjn7XQ
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@policytensor "The problem" lol. This was always the weakness of all this bombastic pro-Iranian analysis. Iran played its cards well but now it faces the fact that it is a second rate power facing an amoral superpower that is incapable of accepting strategic defeat and doesn't have to.
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RIGHT 👉 “For Tehran, the goals are simple. The Islamic Republic must survive this moment and ensure it is not attacked by the United States and Israel again. To achieve this, Iran believes it must impose a cost — to the United States and Israel, to the Gulf states’ image of stability and to the global economy. …
The Strait of Hormuz is a major vulnerability to the global economy. Tehran will remember the value of being able to close it.”
WRONG 👉 “[This] will anchor the United States more firmly in the Middle East, despite years of talk about pivoting away from the region.”
There are only two broad outcomes here. Either the US accepts de facto Iranian hegemony in the region, or it gets sucked into a unwinnable ground war that will destroy the world economy and lead to an even bigger disaster.
Accepting de facto Iranian hegemony — by which I mean living under the sword of Hormuz — means that the US will be less, not more, involved in the gulf. The raison d'être of US deep engagement in the gulf was to contain Iran. With this project abandoned, the organizing principle of US commitments in the gulf vanishes.
The problem, ofc, is that this is not acceptable to the Western mind. That is why the central scenario is a ground war and a great depression. We will lose the ground war too, just at a stupendous higher costs.
Ziad Daoud@ZiadMDaoud
Iran didn't want this war, but now has reasons to prolong it That's a problem for Trump, the global economy & the Gulf states It’ll also haunt future US presidents: Hormuz has been closed once; it can be closed again @DEsfandiary & I argue in @nytimes nytimes.com/2026/03/28/opi…
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@firasmodad Redundancy also means there is more stuff to destroy and it will cost more to rebuild. Enjoy.
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The thing to note here is that the Iranians are still conducting tit-for-tat retaliation operations. Meaning that, when they want to hit something, they do. They are not as effective as the American air force, but they have far more strategic depth and redundancies than Israel.
Al Jazeera Breaking News@AJENews
An Iranian missile barrage has caused a fire a chemical plant near Beersheba in southern Israel, following expanded attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
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@SinaToossi Since 1979 Iran insists that its core security interest is to destroy Israel.
If Iran can't be forced to give up on this then the only reasonable policy is to use all means available to destroy its ability to wage war. Iran made this choice.
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The idea that there is some level of pressure that will force Iran to capitulate on its core security interests has continuously been tested and failed.
It did not work under years of “maximum pressure”. And it failed after the last war, when Iran interpreted the demands on the table not as compromise, but as existential threats to the state.
Now, in the middle of an active war, that perception is only reinforced.
The prevailing logic in Tehran is simple. Either endure, raise costs, and force a more favorable outcome, or face destruction anyway.
Escalation in this context does not compel surrender. It hardens resolve.
Dan Lamothe@DanLamothe
SCOOP: The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, U.S. officials said, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East for what could become a dangerous new phase of the war should President Donald Trump choose to escalate.
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Universities bombed. Scientists and political officials assassinated. Civilian infrastructure targeted.
This model of warfare, mastered by Israel in the modern era, makes a point of discarding any pretense of law, ethics, or restraint.
As in Gaza, it normalizes a level of savagery that will not stay contained. It will haunt the international system for years to come.
Oh and relying on brute force like this is not strength. It is desperation, built on the illusion that it can deliver “victory” when it cannot.
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@MazMHussain The victorious side will be the one trying to rebuild its entire industrial base after the war while desperately trying to avoid regime collapse at the same time?
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The war is already lost having failed at causing the collapse of the regime or suppressing Iranian missile and drone fire to maintain control of maritime traffic they’re just going to chimp out for the remaining time targeting civilian infrastructure.
Faytuks Network@FaytuksNetwork
The US and Israel has targeted a major water source in the city of Haftgel, located in Iran’s western Khuzestan province, according to Iran’s Fars news agency
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@APHClarkson If the Iranians ask for tolls then the Americans should ask for double the tolls from any ship that pays the Iranians. If the Iranians 'control' the Strait of Hormuz then so do the Americans.
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Presumably if the Iranians asks for tolls to use the Strait of Hormuz then the Israelis get to charge tolls to anyone who wants to use Iranian airspace
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@UnboundedVoice @AmichaiStein1 And what exactly will change in terms of government policy towards Israel?
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@AmichaiStein1 Keep doing this and be afraid of the time that 90 million people rally around the flag. You’re making the people who hate their government hate you even more.
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🚨🚨 Israeli IDF carried out a strike a short time ago on Iran's two largest steel plants, located in Isfahan and Ahvaz.
These are significant facilities that form a key part of the Iranian military industry's supply chain and are partially owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The attack is expected to cause extremely heavy damage to Iran, effectively paralyzing the Iranian steel industry and inflicting billions of dollars in damage on the Iranian economy.
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@SinaToossi How does one hit the industrial production of the Islamic Republic without hitting the industrial production of Iran?
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This is a war on Iran, not just the Islamic Republic.
That should be obvious. But a decade+ of Persian-language propaganda has tried to convince Iranians that U.S. and Israeli actions somehow serve the population.
They don’t.
Mohammad Ali Shabani@mashabani
Mobarakeh is the largest steel manufacturer in Iran, with thousands of workers. Going after such sites means the war aim is not just the dismantling of missile factories but the wholesale deindustrialization of Iran. Depending on damage, will Iran hit GCC and Israeli smelters?
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@tadhgmacmuiris1 @ilangoldenberg Then let them take it. This is in the vein of "How do you beat someone that is willing to die?"
You kill him and piss on his grave.
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@bubbaraskin @ilangoldenberg What do you think is going to happen to your economy with all this carry on? They can take it more than you can.
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We’re stuck in an asymmetric war where all Iran has to do to win is survive or be able to maintain a level of chaos in the Gulf that is pretty easy to achieve. The US has to achieve regime change or a near impossible level of security in the Gulf to win. It’s basically Iraq or Afghanistan but with drones, air, and naval power instead of land forces.
All the escalation options are bad and won’t lead to “victory.” We should avoid the traps of the past and try to end this rather than going in because we’ve convinced ourselves that we can’t afford to lose.
foreignaffairs.com/iran/america-h…
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@MazMHussain The flaw in this logic is that in a situation where Israel starts taking significant casualties, the Israelis will inflict vastly disproportionate damage and casualties in return.
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The first weeks of ballistic missile attacks (according to the Iranians mostly using older-model missiles not developed in the past decade) were a down payment on future attacks that could be carried out when interceptors were depleted. So obviously there is little to no incentive to end the war now when from their perspective they are moving into the portion of the conflict where they will enjoy the advantage. Aircraft sortie rates have also decreased from the peak and will continue.
Policy Tensor@policytensor
RUSI data was based on the first 16 days. I estimate the number of days remaining as of today assuming the same daily rate held since.* Here are some findings. 1. Israel is basically out of Arrow interceptors, close to running out of David’s sling, and maybe 10 days of THAAD interceptors. This may be why even non-hypersonic and non-terminally maneuvering missiles are getting through more. 2. US interceptors are also running low. THAAD is expected to run out in 2 weeks. SMs and Patriots may last 2 months. 3. Israel has essentially run out of offensive long-range missiles. The US is in a better place, but then the US has global responsibilities. *Ranges for the missiles were scraped from Wikipedia. -1 mean NA. rusi.org/explore-our-re…
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@HawraaNabi @asadabukhalil If they want normal lives they shouldn't be part of a terrorist organization.
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@bubbaraskin @asadabukhalil Hezbollah are Lebanese and have families. They have normal jobs too aside being a freedom Fighter. They lead a normal life btween people when they are not at the front lines or in the military bases.
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Dahiyah (southern suburbs of Beirut) is not a Hizbullah stronghold. It is a city or a suburb housing hundreds of thousands of displaced people from the South. The displacement began in the 1950s and 1960s, long before there was Hizbullah or Hamas, due to constant Israeli invasions, attacks, encroachments, occupation, and terrorization. It was a stronghold of Arab nationalists and communists in the pre-1982 period. It still has people of different political stripes, although people voluntarily support primarily Hizb and Amal movements. The only reason Israel forced the evacuation of the suburbs in the last few weeks is not military. There are no military targets there. Remember: racism is one of the founding ideas of Israel, and the disregard for the lives of Arabs is a central belief of Zionism (remember the international UN resolution, Zionism—is—racism? That is what we are talking about). Israel wants their displacement to: 1) terrorize the residents and their neighbors; 2) make life unlivable for them, civilians or members of the party; 3) force displacement and hope for social and sectarian tensions; 4) do what Zionists have always done: say, you either submit to our rule and bow down to us, or we will either kill you or make life miserable for you. That is what Zionism has been for the Arabs.
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@SinaToossi Nice copy and paste from the Russians. It was garbage when they used it and it's garbage when you use it.
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Why won't Iran back down? Because it views this as an existential war.
Not just for the Islamic Republic, but for Iran itself.
Either it ends in a deal that secures its core interests, or Iran heads towards fragmentation, civil war along social, ethnic, and religious lines, and the collapse of Iran as a historical state.
Thus, Iran isn't after a half-baked ceasefire like last June.
Recent personnel shifts—including Larijani’s replacement—signal a system ready to go all out in a battle of wills.
This is because it believes backing down without securing its core interests would lead to losing everything anyway.
As a result, it remains prepared to counter-escalate dramatically.
Frederik Pleitgen@fpleitgenCNN
NEW: There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days but nothing that reached the level of full on negotiations, a senior Iranian source tells me. Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war, which is now in its fourth week, could be reached. The proposals being looked at are aimed not merely at achieving a ceasefire, but a concrete agreement to end the conflict between the US and Iran, the source added without going into further detail. The source refused to comment on US President Trump‘s public statements on the outreach and emphasized Iran's position has been always clear that Iran is ready to consider any viable proposal to deceively put an end to this war of choice imposed on Iran. The source said Iran is not asking for a meeting or direct talks with the United States but is willing to listen if a plan for a sustainable deal comes within reach that would preserve the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Iran is ready to provide all the necessary guarantees that it will never develop nuclear weapons but is entitled to peaceful use of nuclear technology. The source stated that any propsal has to also include termination of all sanctions imposed on the Iranian people. @cnni @CNN
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Turkish President Erdogan on Iran:
Israel’s uncompromising, maximalist, and radical stance must not be allowed to sabotage diplomatic solutions.
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@tparsi Yeah, if Iran insists that its goal is the destruction of Israel then it would be irresponsible for Israel not to destroy Iran's industrial base to diminish the threat.
Iran probably shouldn't have spent the past 47 years trying to destroy Israel.
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Israel's goal is to destroy Iran's industrial base and set the country back decades to ensure that Tehran cannot pose a challenge to Israel's hegemonic designs for years to come - regardless of the cost to the global economy, regional stability, or Trump's presidency...
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@policytensor As for the rest.. If this is how the Iranians actually see this conflict then they are completely delusional and negotiations will go nowhere.
At the end of the day Iran does not have escalation dominance.
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@policytensor Israel will not accept an outcome that will allow Iran to rush towards a nuclear weapon. It doesn't actually matter what the Americans say in negotiations. Their ability to restrain Israel from resorting to any measures to prevent this outcome is literally zero.
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I agree. The Iranians are at risk of overreach.
They are closing to achieving all their objectives. They have survived a joint all-out aerial attack by the US and Israel. They have pushed out US forces and made US bases in the region unusable. They have demonstrated the power of the Hormuz weapon — and held the world economy at gunpoint. They have demonstrated their capability to hold all gulf and Israeli assets and cities at risk.
Has deterrence been restored? I think we’re getting close. Despite the low journalistic standards in the West, all serious people now understand that this has been a strategic defeat for the West.
Escalating from here or dragging this out may be unwise. It would only force the US to commit ground forces, which will be a quagmire for the Americans, but would be considerably more devastating for Iran.
The Iranians should try to secure what they can at the table. Security guarantees may not be forthcoming and are not something that can be extracted by Iranian threats. What they can insist on is money and arms. Sanctions relief from the US. Weapons supply from the other great powers.
This will have to enough until Iran can achieve breakout, which they must now do at forced-pace and in total secrecy (see @NicoleGrajewski FA article on this point).
The enrichment file may be the sticking point. It is really hard to see how Iran can now allow any kind of serious inspection regime. They must rush to get the bomb. And this is an important reason beyond the Hormuz weapon that the war will continue.
The culminating point is hard to identify. But a good case can be made that this is it. If Trump is willing to eat this defeat then they should let him. Even if they agree to inspections, they can run rings around the inspectors or kick them out later.
Najam Ali@NajamAli2020
Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.
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