Ethan Ard

4.3K posts

Ethan Ard banner
Ethan Ard

Ethan Ard

@ethanard

Full of passionate intensity

Columbus, OH Beigetreten Haziran 2007
1.9K Folgt969 Follower
Angehefteter Tweet
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
Since you seem to be asking a sincere question, I'll give a sincere answer. Part of it, to be sure, is partisan preference ("rage", as you put it). Democratic voters, compared to Republican voters, tend to have a significantly more favorable view of, say, government funding of medical research, or government funding of medical aid to impoverished communities in Africa. Though I'd say voters "in the middle" tend to have somewhat conservative views on that, which is why these are good soft targets. But the deeper concern that many Democrats have is that something much bigger is going on. In 1932, FDR made enormous changes to the nature of American society. He instituted social security over the strenuous objections of republicans, who feared (correctly) that it would be very difficult to unwind. Some of his techniques (e.g., threats to pack the court) were very rough justice, but it must be noted that he had the support of 71% of congress (and by definition, the vast majority of voters), as opposed to 51%. These were hardball threats *within* the bounds of our constitutional system. The Democratic concern is not so much that he will do things that we don't like--of course he will. Elections have consequences. It's not even a concern that he will do things which are broadly popular and thus hard to unwind (like social security, medicare or Obamacare), or that he will do such a good job that Vance is elected just as GHWB followed Reagan. If that happens, so be it. The major concern is that there will not be any more elections, that the current government will do unpopular things, but simply refuse to leave because they have unfettered control of the military and intelligence operations. I for one am not persuaded that Trump will leave voluntarily in 4 years, nor do I think he will leave involuntarily. There is a very real chance that Trump will be "president" for the rest of his life, and perhaps then Barron (or Elon) will be president for the remainder of *my* life. Trump has several uncommon insights about the nature of power, the most important of which is: if you achieve a certain level of power, you do not have to relinquish it. He has stated that he never should have left in 2020. Putin had term limits, until he abolished them. Xi had term limits, until he abolished them. Mao was removed from power by the party, but he refused to leave. Erdogan is going nowhere. Orban is going nowhere. Kim Jong-un is going nowhere, nor did his father or grandfather. Hitler was elected to a limited role by a minority of the population, but quickly overthrew the remaining parts of the government, installing himself as Fuhrer with unlimited powers. Caesar was just a man, who was forbidden by law to cross the Rubicon, until he did it because LOL, and thus ended the Roman Republic. Caesar did not live forever, but the Republic was dead forever. Every other American president has felt compelled to follow the law, although I acknowledge that FDR and Lincoln pushed things pretty far. Trump is, after all, a convicted felon who scorned the notion that any court of law could tell him what to do. I understand that many Republicans agreed with his decision to defy the courts, but that only makes democrats more concerned, not less. Of course I do not expect to persuade any Republicans about this--I presume that most Trump voters either think this is alarmist TDS, or else relish the prospect. Bringing it back to the immediate matter at hand, there are ways to reduce spending which are consistent with the U.S. constitution. Under our constitutional system, only Congress is able to set spending priorities, and only congress is allowed to create or abolish agencies like the CFPB, the USAID, or the Department of Education. The president's only role is to sign or veto the bills, and then ensure that the laws are faithfully executed. It would be perfectly legal for Congress to pass laws accomplishing what Musk and Trump intend to do, and in fact Trump has such unfettered control over his party that he could easily strong-arm them into doing so. Mike Johnson only has a 3-vote majority in the house, but who would dare vote against Trump on anything right now? Which raises the question: why aren't they taking that route? Why haven't they passed the DOGE authorization act, or even contemplated such? One possible interpretation is that the lawlessness is the point. If you are able to unilaterally usurp congressional authority over an unpopular program like USAID, you may be able to unilaterally detain U.S. citizens and place them into camps, or cancel elections due to a "national emergency", or throw out ballots you don't like, etc. Don't get me started on invading Greenland, or Gaza, or Panama, or Canada. Canada! Not only our closest ally, but possibly the closest ally any nation has ever had in human history. This is already way too long, but I would also add that Musk and AI raise the stakes quite a bit. While this is not yet consensus, there is zero doubt in my mind that AI is the most powerful thing that humanity has ever invented. The fact that Trump's strongest ally (and arguably, the shadow president) is also in the running to control AI (inasmuch as it can be controlled, which I doubt), is pretty concerning. China became a technological police state with 2000-era technology. It would be incredibly easy to have total 1984-style surveillance of the entire U.S. population with a few hundred billion dollars worth of investment in the right AI tools even using today's technology, let alone the 2027 technology. I fear that we are all frogs with a scorpion on our back, in water that is rapidly coming to a boil. I hope this helps to address your sincere question. And needless to say, I hope I'm wrong about all of this.
English
137
42
384
31.8K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@noahiglerSEO That’s great, though tbh all of those things scale. He has just chosen not to.
English
0
0
2
19
Noah Igler
Noah Igler@noahiglerSEO·
Talked to an electrician who books $1.2M a year working a 35-mile radius outside a small Texas town with two trucks. No ads. He stopped running Google Ads 2 years ago after burning $40K and getting maybe 60 jobs out of it. Here's how he books out 3 weeks ahead without spending a dollar on marketing. Every customer gets a magnet with his cell phone number on it. Hand-delivered, stuck on the breaker panel before he leaves the job. He's been doing this for 11 years. His average customer calls him 5 times over their lifetime. Panel upgrade, ceiling fan install, EV charger, generator hookup, kitchen remodel rough-in, the list goes on. The magnet keeps his number in front of them every time they open the panel. He also keeps a spreadsheet of every job he's ever done with the homeowner's name, address, and what he fixed. Every December he prints Christmas cards and mails one to every customer from the past 5 years. Costs him about $600 a year in postage. He says January and February are now his strongest months because the cards land right when people are thinking about home projects for the new year. His Google Business Profile has 500+ reviews because every customer gets a text 3 hours after the job from his wife asking how it went and dropping the review link. His website is 4 pages and looks like it was built in 2014. Doesn't matter. He ranks #1 in his town because he has more reviews (and more consistent reviews) than the next 5 competitors combined and posts photos to his GBP each month. He charges 20% more than his competition. The neighbors all use him. He doesn't take new customers from outside the area unless they were referred by an existing one. Do things that don't scale I guess..
English
13
19
296
27K
Russell Lowery
Russell Lowery@RussellLowery10·
@realitybasedlaw I think it is more basic. People perceive that the opposition party hates them and they would rather have incompetent people that hate them.
English
2
0
5
85
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@jamesonhaslam In a just world, scooter braun would be the only billionaire
English
0
0
0
42
jameson (big deck energy)
jameson (big deck energy)@jamesonhaslam·
She didn’t earn this Surely she stole it from someone Sounds like some ill gotten skills to me
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan

The NYT interview with Taylor Swift on her songwriting process is so good. Here she explains her approach to choruses and bridges: “The importance for me of a bridge is it just feels like we’re painting a picture. We’re setting a scene. We have this opportunity as a songwriter to tell an entire story. Or an entire movie. Or a very detailed description of one scene in a movie. Or a very nuanced dynamic between people or a complicated emotion. And we have only so long to do this. I’ve written some really long songs in my life. But, for the most part, they’re between 3.5 to 4 minutes. You can start painting the picture in the verse. You can get to the heart of it at the chorus. But then the bridge can be where you zoom back, you walk 20 feet back, and you see what this entire painting was supposed to be. You’ve seen brushstrokes. You’ve seen the color tones. But the bridge can be when you step back and you feel everything that that piece of art was supposed to make you feel. That’s just how I feel about bridges. I came up as a songwriter in Nashville, where structure is a huge part of how you effectively tell a story, right? You go verse - chorus - second verse - chorus - bridge - chorus. Maybe you repeat that first verse if you want to. If you want to pull at some heartstrings. If it makes sense. Now, that’s something that I absolutely subscribe to…that structure is important. But I think that when you write enough songs — at least in my case — the intuitive part of your songwriting brain can kind of create a new structure that’s not as classically what you’ve been taught. Jack Antonoff is a collaborator of mine and one of my best friends. We established this thing that we love to do and we call it the rant bridge. I could point to examples like, ‘Out of the Woods’, ‘Is It Over Now?’ or ‘Cruel Summer’. And oftentimes we love these rant bridges, where it’s basically like stream of consciousness. Endless pouring-out of emotion. Intrusive thoughts, blended with metaphor with discussion with shouting. You want this rant bridge to feel the most intense of what that feeling is…that you’re trying to, establish over the course of the song and you want it to kind of be a crescendo.” *** Full interview here: youtu.be/5B8-TJ8vsKY?si…

English
3
0
9
1.8K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@XYHan_ Yes but surely almost every young aspiring scientist desires both things. May we live in interesting times…
English
0
0
1
36
XY Han
XY Han@XYHan_·
There's 2 POVs. 1 "I want to know more about the world, so I want to do science." 2 "I want to achieve something in my life and career. Science is the medium through which I can do it." POV 2 are the ones experiencing existential dread rn.
alz@alz_zyd_

if you're a scientist and you feel existential anxiety because of AI, tell yourself: you're living through the most exciting time for science in the last 50 years!! just be happy you're alive to see this. Isn't this the reason you decided to be a scientist in the first place?

English
3
0
7
392
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@alz_zyd_ I agree but counterpoint: it is natural for the human ego to want to make independent discoveries. Knowledge is an artifact of the scientific process but not necessary the most emotionally rewarding part. When our “tutors” have IQs of 250, we will be rich but maybe stultified.
English
0
0
1
67
alz
alz@alz_zyd_·
if you're a scientist and you feel existential anxiety because of AI, tell yourself: you're living through the most exciting time for science in the last 50 years!! just be happy you're alive to see this. Isn't this the reason you decided to be a scientist in the first place?
English
24
18
326
21.1K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@pmarca Yes, the majority of economic and cultural growth is coming from states and localities that have been run and shaped by Democrats for decades. Probably a lot for conservatives to learn from this, much as liberals should be learning from Texas.
English
1
0
0
41
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@matthewstoller @AOC AOC is smart but this is very slippery. Everybody is creating value and extracting some of it. Most (not all) successful businesses create vastly more consumer surplus than they capture. I’ve probably gotten at least $10k in lifetime utility due to Amazon, for example.
English
0
0
0
7
Matt Stoller
Matt Stoller@matthewstoller·
The elite rage at @AOC for saying something obviously true - billionaires are inherently extractive - is amazing. It’s the Epstein class at work. Snowflakes all of them.
English
255
247
2.5K
296.4K
Matt Titan
Matt Titan@Matt_Titan_·
What’s the best brain performance supplement? Go!
English
6
0
3
1.6K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@Schottey Why is it a problem? I’m staying at an Airbnb right now, and I think the owner has 20+ units. It’s good quality for the price and efficiently operated.
English
1
0
1
238
Michael Schottey
Michael Schottey@Schottey·
Calling Airbnb a “marketplace” is like calling Amazon a “flea market” because small businesses can sell their goods on there.” Somewhere between a majority and a vast majority of STR are controlled by investors with 20+ properties and it’s a problem that’s accelerating
Michael Seibel@mwseibel

Jesus - Airbnb is a marketplace with willing participants on both sides. AOC you’re killing me! Come on!!! Airbnb hosts use that money to put food on their kids plates. The housing in Airbnb isn’t controlled by some “evil pubic corporation” - it’s controlled by normal citizens trying to pay their bills. I challenge you to name businesses of any significant scale that aren’t evil!

English
7
0
25
45.7K
Alex Lieberman
Alex Lieberman@businessbarista·
Who remembers Scholastic book fairs? They ruled. If I hosted one for adults in NYC, who would come?
English
64
1
239
19.3K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@paulg Ironically, garages are probably the least air-conditioned part of the typical American house.
English
0
0
2
15
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@CliffordAsness @ptuomov And it wasn't her call, it was a judicial matter resolved in the courts. Senators (like hedge fund billionaires) sometimes express opinions about matters about which they do not get a vote, but wish they did.
English
0
0
0
23
Clifford Asness
Clifford Asness@CliffordAsness·
@ptuomov Yep, plus, none of this should be Elizabeth Warren’s call.
English
7
0
58
2.6K
Ptuomov
Ptuomov@ptuomov·
1. It’s not true that the combined entity would be in worse shape with Spirit than stand-alone JetBlue is today. Scale is important and allows for significant cost cuts. 2. Even if the combined entity would be in a worse shape, it would be large and long-term viable enough that it could likely simply be refinanced or restructured outside any bankruptcy process. 3. There is a difference between cheaper 11 and chapter 7 bankruptcy. Even if I were wrong about both 1 and 2, the combined entity would still highly likely enter a ch11 reorganization and not in ch7 liquidation.
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki

If JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit had been approved, there's a good chance JetBlue would now be headed into bankruptcy, too.

English
5
6
57
18.8K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@JamesSurowiecki @BWLH_ Isn't that just society's short-lived response to George Floyd & COVID? "Rules don't apply to the rich and powerful, so they don't apply to me either".
English
0
0
1
143
James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki·
@BWLH_ But that doesn't explain the spike in murders in 2020-2021, followed by the precipitous fall.
English
6
0
10
3.9K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@KurtSchlichter OK, but some states tried that once and America kicked their asses
English
0
0
1
8
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@ThinkAppraiser Because it's easier to just stiff your kid's school and get even richer in the long run.
English
0
0
0
26
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@EWErickson Are you of the opinion that WNBA players have legions of accountants and advising them on tax policy?
English
0
0
0
246
Erick Erickson
Erick Erickson@EWErickson·
One of the side benefits of this hell site is you get to see people who think of themselves as experts reveal they don't really know what they are talking about, but presume themselves smarter than the legion of accountants and lawyers who help athletes navigate their finances.
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki

I cannot believe this. Kelsey Plum really thinks that if she earned a dollar more (giving her a million-dollar salary), she would have to pay an extra $13,000 in income tax. That is not how marginal tax rates work! If she earned a dollar more, she'd pay an extra 13 cents.

English
199
9
225
864.7K
Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan@moseskagan·
When he was getting started in his career, many closeted gay men in politics hid by being overtly homophobic, and thereby did a lot of damage to gay people. I've always admired BF for being moral and courageous enough to avoid doing that, even though it would probably have made public life much easier for him.
English
3
0
38
3K
Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@Noahpinion When they discontinued the large (33 oz) glass bottles of sparkling Italian mineral water, I took that personally.
English
0
0
9
437