Josh Morgerman

ICYMI: Behold mighty #MELISSA in #Jamaica. High-end Category 5. Possibly the most intense #hurricane to make landfall in North America. And the fiercest of all the hurricanes I've witnessed. WATCH: youtu.be/siq-DdmBUIY

@AdrianRB1972 You're boring me. Bye.

@iCyclone Estoy escribiendo en español…😏 Estás asumiendo muchas cosas sin saber…poco científico de tu parte.

Gorgeous shot of Budapest last night. They're on the verge of peacefully & democratically overthrowing fascist thug Viktor Orban. Go, #Hungary. 👊👊👊 P.S. I lived in Eastern Europe for most of the 2000s, & Budapest was one of my favorite haunts. Hung out there all the time. ♥️

@AdrianRB1972 I think you mean "oops"? (Please learn to spell.) He's cleaning up Orban's corruption, which was enormous. If you are having trouble understanding what is going on, I am not here to teach you. You will need to get educated on your own. Anyhoo, I am so happy for Hungary. ❤️

@iCyclone Upps 2

@griffo44374 "defended their interests" lol. very cool hallucination.

@iCyclone He was elected by the Hungarian people, defended their interests against the overbearing EU and conceded when the people spoke. Doesn't sound very fascist to me.

@Variety Lolz.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to evoke Holy Scripture but instead quoted Quentin Tarantino's "Pulp Fiction" during a Pentagon worship service. Hagseth read the altered version of Ezekiel 25:17 quoted by Samuel L. Jackson’s character in the movie just before he shoots a man to death. variety.com/2026/film/news…

@AdrianRB1972 Exactly. That is why it was so stupid to describe him as some open-border lefty. Orban dummies were just making stuff up. Magyar is a conservative who believes in strict immigration policy.

@iCyclone Upps

@RepShriThanedar @offbeatorbit 🤣

Meanwhile, this is your husband.

@Louisianafotos Oh, there absolutely are flights-- especially into Guam & Saipan. The issue is that stuff cancels really far in advance on these islands. @EarthUncutTV, who does chase in the Marianas on occasion, has experienced some painful, chase-killing cancellations, & he lives very close.

@iCyclone Maybe some useful information for you for future storms there. On flight tracker I noticed there was a few flights onto the islands. It could have been late logistical flights but there was flights.

Radar images suggest inner eyewall of #Typhoon #SINLAKU has dissipated, leaving very large eye that's now passing over Tinian & Saipan (pink). A little while ago, SPN had 71 knots gusting to 113, but winds have since eased a bit. STAY INDOORS WHILE THE EYE PASSES.

@NewcalSpearer Yes, it was an ERC.

@iCyclone looks like a classic EWRC ? inner eyewall collapsed but a larger one developed around it

Poor thing. Looks like the core is just collapsing before our eyes. Prayerz. #SINLAKU

@JEumerus @KeviShader That's definitely part of it. Like a lot of WPAC cyclones, this thing had a fat core and I'd expect it to have lower pressure than a NATL cyclone. That said, SINLAKU is still a tropical cyclone-- not some giant winter gyre up in Alaska. I'm going to expect *some* gradient.

@iCyclone @KeviShader Weak wind + large radius -> low core pressure, maybe?

While the AWS on Saipan has not reported any pressure data in a few hours, a Davis Vantage Pro 2 station on Saipan is still reporting data (wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/…). The station is currently reporting 937mb but seems to be running ~13mb too high compared to the AWS 8mi to its SW.

@KeviShader That would be a surprising value, given the storm's degraded appearance (it really weakened on approach) and wind data out of SPN (71 knots gusting to 113).

I threw together a small linear regression between the AWS and PWS, which is how I got the 13mb correction factor. Using the 924mb corrected pressure within the Schloemer equation and a distance of 10-15mi to the eye yields about 910-915mb right now! #Sinlaku

@Louisianafotos They won't include include such warnings, since that kind of gust factor is extremely rare-- basically a freak incident.

@iCyclone True they definitely have more knowledge about the subject than me. It will be interesting with the next storm a cat 1 around 90mph if they will include gust warnings at cat 5 windspeeds. Might be why Nicholas seemed so strong to chasers.

#Typhoon #SINLAKU is near Tinian & Saipan. It's majorly restructuring: inner eyewall is collapsing as outer eyewall becomes dominant. Result of this eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) will be larger eye & weaker winds. Outer eyewall currently raking SPN w/ 68 knots gusting to 100.

@mtomk1 @SenatorWicker @JDVance Thanks. 😎👊

@iCyclone @SenatorWicker @JDVance BTW, great haircut!

The freedom-loving people of Hungary have voted decisively in favor of democracy and the rule of law. I congratulate them and Peter Magyar, the next prime minister of Hungary. They've rejected the malign influence of Vladimir Putin, the world's most malicious dictator, and decided their own future. I look forward to an even stronger friendship between the United States and our other NATO allies.

@CameliaFleurie @Sparkle21m They are not protected. That is simply a blind spot in the radar.

@Sparkle21m 🧐 islands are protected. ??

@Mernusea @Louisianafotos Thanks. The gust factor I calculated was based on JTWC best track, which is a 1-minute wind (not 10-minute). If the sustained wind at that time was 125 knots, that's a 1.76 gust factor.

@iCyclone @Louisianafotos connectsci.au/es/article/62/… Here’s the paper detailing the documentation of the gust. The gust factor was even higher at other points, peaked at 2.75. They don’t get too much into the details of how the gust occurred, except that it was likely mesovertex related.

@GPanago2 @EarthUncutTV Oh, boy. A Russia apologist. Yowee. Have a good day. Bye. For real.

@iCyclone @EarthUncutTV Sure I understand, but as far as Russia goes, we had a deal. We shook hands in 1990, no eastward expansion of NATO in exchange for the reunification of Germany. We didn't honor our word, knowing it would lead to conflict. Have a good one. x.com/i/status/20010…

@SWFLWX Yes, we can all see the little remnant bits of it. When I said it dissipated, I didn't mean to imply that every conceivable trace of it had 100% disappeared, leaving a perfectly clear and pristine eye with a perfect, dead calm and crystal moonlight.

@iCyclone I doubt it's fully dissipated, I suspect it appears that way because the radar is blocked. Regardless, it's definitely going to dissipate soon if it has not already.

@Louisianafotos Or it just had a high gust factor. You might want to research the satellite data and also the complete wind data from Barrow Island before simply deciding the best track is wrong. Professionals who know more than you or I settled on these values for a reason.

@iCyclone So, basically about 110 mph over sustained. I think the estimated was probably off a bit. I do think that estimates are more accurate now compared to then.

@GPanago2 @EarthUncutTV Sorry you feel that way. What bothers me more is Russia invading Europe and creeps like Orban who assist him. So, we disagree. We're bothered by different things. Cool. Whatever. Have a totally great day.

@iCyclone @EarthUncutTV Yep. The cheapest food, is the food you don't eat. Thats their motto, while Europe collapses. But not for her. Despicable.

@Louisianafotos Gust was 220 knots. Peak sustained at the time was estimated to be 125. So, that's a difference of 95 knots, with is a gust factor of 1.76. (Normally it would be around 1.3.)

@iCyclone The wind gust was well over 100 mph over the sustained winds? Actually almost double from what the estimated sustained landfall was? Trying to make sure I interpreted the data correctly.