Erik Krohnstad

I went to Bitcoin Investor Week in NYC this week. I've been to many of these before but the quality of speakers at this one was on another level. A friend told me he overheard two bank analysts in the bathroom genuinely confused about how calm everyone was. Bitcoin had just crashed 50%. I wrote up everything I took away from it.

It's pretty cool we now get to see S&P500 futures trading over the weekend in real time on hyperliquid.

@JayWoods3 @CMTAssociation Means a lot coming from you. Thank you for making it happen on Tuesday!⚡️🦾

Thanks to my student @inprobabilities for putting this amazing recap of the @CMTAssociation NYC event - Navigating Turbulent Times - together. Huge shout out to Fordham as well as my current and former students for their enthusiasm and the CMT members that joined us. A must read…

@MarkNewtonCMT @JayWoods3 @FrankCappelleri @BruniCharting @CMTAssociation 🫡

@inprobabilities @JayWoods3 @FrankCappelleri @BruniCharting @CMTAssociation Well done, Erik, thanks

New post: A CMT Panel on What Matters Right Now @JayWoods3, @MarkNewtonCMT, @FrankCappelleri, and @BruniCharting on the S&P 500, crude oil, capitulation signals, silver, and Bitcoin — from Tuesday night's @CMTAssociation event at Fordham. Big thank you to @CMTAssociation for hosting🚀🌩️ @inprobabilities/p-192148452" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@inprobabiliti…

@FrankCappelleri @JayWoods3 @MarkNewtonCMT @BruniCharting @CMTAssociation Thank you. Was awesome hearing you speak.

@inprobabilities @JayWoods3 @MarkNewtonCMT @BruniCharting @CMTAssociation Thanks a lot for putting this together, Erik. Really well done. And thank you attending the event, too.

Remember Bessent’s 3/3/3 plan? One of the 3’s was 3%-of-GDP deficits.

@JC_ParetsX came to @JayWoods3's Technical Analysis class at Fordham and gave one of the most honest, entertaining breakdowns of market psychology I've heard. Keyword: Magazines. Huge thank you to both - Jay for building a class like this, and JC for the time…🚀🫡 open.substack.com/pub/inprobabil…

What happens to debt vs. equity when AI compresses the predictability horizon? New paper: inprobabilities.substack.com/p/when-code-ea…

@jerimican5445 Thank you Jeremy !!

Great article! We are so early and the masses are still either skeptical, confounded, or unaware of the implications of MSTR's STRC, Strives SATA, and Metaplanet's Mercury on Bitcoin, people being able to get 4.99-12.5% "risk free" yield on their savings, ETFs backed by STRC, and bank's ability to offer digital money backed by STRC. What does this all mean? Bitcoin ☝️

@Werkman @MSTRTrueNorth Thanks Ben !! Great seeing you !!

@inprobabilities @MSTRTrueNorth Enjoyed the write up, thanks for coming to the event!

True North - Vegas Wrote up the full breakdown on digital credit, the institutional bottleneck, and why imo the "seasoning clock" matters more than anything right now for adoption. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Thank you to the True North squad - legends! @MSTRTrueNorth 🔗inprobabilities.substack.com/p/the-seasonin…

@_Adrian Thank you Adrian !!

Excellent overview @inprobabilities - Thank You for your work on this.

@PunterJeff Thank you Jeff !!!

Great write up of the True North 2026 event by @inprobabilities “The information gap… is the defining feature of this moment… It’s a gap between the institutional plumbing and the market’s understanding of what that plumbing will carry.” Summary of alpha ICYMI 🫡

@TheRealDHR @MSTRTrueNorth Thanks !!

@inprobabilities @MSTRTrueNorth 👍 Nice work Erik.

@Trollstein @MSTRTrueNorth Thanks Dan ! Cheers!

@inprobabilities @MSTRTrueNorth Thanks, Erik. Excellent summary of the event. I'll DM you about possibly including this on the True North website. Cheers!

@buckethatbtc @MSTRTrueNorth Thanks Kyle !!

@inprobabilities @MSTRTrueNorth W write up - good looks, Erik. Enjoyed reading.

@Trollstein Thank you Dan. Looking forward to it !!

Thanks for this excellent writeup and breakdown, Erik. Appreciate the support. Next year will be even better for our 3rd annual True North @ Strategy World Bitcoin for Corporations event. Hope to see you in Orlando.

@Z06Z07 @MSTRTrueNorth Thank you. Great to see you, and again, great event … !!

A great summary of the @MSTRTrueNorth event last Monday. Thanks Erik! @inprobabilities

@MSTRTrueNorth @PunterJeff @phongle @ColeMacro @Matt_Hougan @jameslavish @BitcoinPierre @mikebelshe @hillery_dan @MSTRTrueNorth @Strive @MicroStrategy @Bitwise @BitGo @_Adrian @nithusezni @Anchorage @MasonFoard @Werkman @saylor @Z06Z07 @ejuline

"The replacement cost of a $20–100M ARR SaaS product has fallen below $10,000 in compute and one founder's weekend." - @jvisserlabs