Pierre Rochard

David Reich on how much ancient DNA evidence has overturned so much consensus thinking how ancient cultures spread. "It wasn't peaceful, it wasn't friendly, it wasn't nice. Some of our archaeologist co-authors were just really distressed."

Joe Biden killed Spirit Airlines. And anti-business, anti-market politicians like Elizabeth Warren celebrated as he did so. Spirit has been in financial distress for years. Its ultra low-cost operating model simply no longer works. Back in 2022, though, JetBlue offered Spirit a lifeline. JetBlue bid to acquire the struggling airline for $3.8B, and Spirit’s shareholders accepted the deal. The Spirit brand would have been retired, and the interior of the jets would have been somewhat reconfigured (more premium seats, more legroom, no more inserting a quarter to use the lavatory, etc.). The core of what made Spirit “Spirit”—good, bad, and ugly alike—would have changed. But the majority of flight routes would have been preserved, and most Spirit employees would have kept their jobs. Given the sizable challenges to Spirit’s business model—as well as the company’s weak balance sheet—it was the best outcome any of its stakeholders could have hoped for. But that wasn’t good enough for the Biden administration, nor for politicians like Senator Warren (who has never seen a dollar of shareholder value she didn’t wish to tax, regulate, or otherwise strangle out of existence). In 2023, the Biden DOJ sued to block the deal. In January 2024, a judge ruled in the DOJ’s favor, and the deal was dead by March. By November 2024, Spirit was in Chapter 11 bankruptcy; after emerging with a restructured balance sheet in early 2025, it would file for Chapter 11 again—a rare “double dip” bankruptcy process—less than a year later, in August 2025. And now, possibly as early as this weekend, Spirit will enter liquidation. Its planes will be parceled out to the highest bidders, where they will likely fly completely different routes across the US. Its pilots will land safely on their feet (though they, too, may have to relocate their families to new home bases), as will some flight attendants. Most mechanics and other ground crew are probably out of luck—and jobs. The Biden administration’s lawsuit against JetBlue all but guaranteed this. And the worst part is, anyone could have predicted it (in fact, countless people across the aviation and finance worlds did just that). When the DOJ or FTC sues to block an M&A deal, it typically does so by arguing the post-transaction market will be too concentrated (you’ll hear something called the Herfindahl-Hirschman index referenced to argue this; and don’t worry, the rest of us can’t pronounce it either). But this was not the argument the Biden DOJ made. The DOJ instead argued that Spirit, as an independent company, charged so little that it created a disproportionate downward pricing effect that affected the rest of the airline industry. In other words, Spirit was so cheap that it couldn’t be allowed to be acquired by a competitor, lest the entire airline industry be able to raise prices. It’s analogous to saying the dirty Arby’s in my town can’t shut down, or else the steak house across the city might be able to charge more. But here’s the thing: Those disproportionately downward prices meant Spirit wasn’t viable as a business. Unlike legacy carriers such as United—which now generate a large share of profit from premium seats—Spirit does not offer premium seats with which it can subsidize its lower-cost fares. ALL of Spirit’s fares are ultra low-cost tickets, with ultra low margins for the company. And now, the company is about to die. So way to go, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Lina Khan and all the rest of you who—despite barely having held private-sector jobs, let alone built companies or been responsible for payroll—know what a business should do better than its shareholders, board of directors, executives, employees, investment bankers, and lawyers. Job well done. I hope you’re proud.

ATH Ex-Div volume, ATH Ex-Div close. $SATA

Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) have finalized a compromise on stablecoin yield, clearing the way for the Clarity Act to move forward in the Senate Banking Committee. The deal bans rewards offered "in a manner that is economically or functionally equivalent to the payment of interest or yield on an interest-bearing bank deposit." Companies could still offer rewards tied to stablecoins, but only if those rewards pass a regulatory test proving they aren't functioning like bank deposit interest. The compromise also directs regulators to develop a new stablecoin disclosure regime and define a list of permissible reward activities. Stablecoin yield has been the central holdup for the Clarity Act for months. Banks argued that stablecoins offering 5-6% yields were directly competing with traditional savings accounts outside the banking regulatory framework. Tillis says he will push for the bill to enter markup after the May recess. Separately, Tillis expressed support for Senator Cynthia Lummis' framework to protect non-custodial software developers from prosecution under 1960s-era money transmitting statutes, drawing a legal line between developers who write open-source code and entities that actually control customer funds.

Strive Tracking Day 33 $ASST is now ranked 1,899th largest public US company by market cap. Jumped 30 companies today. Just a 14x to top 500. 1,410th largest by dollar volume.