Peter Kremmer

@cyphermojo @tparsi "we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the oil price down for the next 7-14 days as we continue this campaign" I am not even sure they are going to give the proceedings to IRGC to be honest.

@kremmerpeter @tparsi No one is convinced the regime is collapsing, bc everyone understands that "the regime" is a not how power is organized in Iran. He can't publicy say that he is meeting one of Tehran's demands, but that is what he signalled. Iran also signaling cooperation.

The developments of the past 24h may prove a turning point in this war: Israel and the US's escalation by striking the Qatari-Iranian Pars field, the strikes against Asaluyeh, Iran's massive retaliation against oil and gas installations in Saudi, Qatar and beyond, which shot up oil prices, the near downing of a F35 by Iran and Secretary Bessent's revelations that the US may unsanction Iranian oil on the waters to bring down oil prices. As I said already on the fourth day, the US has lost control of this war. It had a Plan A, but no Plan B. Plan A came crashing down after it became clear that the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei neither brought the implosion of the theocracy nor their surrender. As a result, the US is increasingly letting the Israelis drive the bus, by virtue of them having a plan, even though their plan does not serve US interests (the Israelis want to prolong the war to degrade Iran's entire industrial base, regardless of what happens to energy markets, Trump's presidency, and security in the region as a whole.) The Israeli strike against the Pars field, coordinated with the US, is particularly important because it violated a promise Trump made to Qatar back in September 2025 - Israel would no longer be allowed to strike Qatar. But that gas field is shared by both Iran and Qatar, hence it was an attack on Qatar as well as on Iran. With US coordination. This - and the impact on energy markets - may explain why Trump took to social media to blame Israel for the attack and publicly forbade them from striking further energy fields. But Bessent's comments about unsanctioning Iranian oil on the waters are the most important. Though it's primarily done to push down oil prices, it appears that we may have nevertheless entered sanctions relief territory out of necessity. I wrote several days ago that Tehran is very unlikely to end the war even if the US pulls out and declares victory. Iran has leverage for the first time in years and will seek to trade it in. It has publicly demanded a closing of US bases, reparations, and sanctions relief in order to stop shooting at Israel and open the Straits. The first may happen over time anyway, the second is highly unlikely, but the third - sanctions relief - may become more plausible as the cost of the war rises, and escalation strategies become increasingly suicidal for Trump. As I have explained, a return to the pre-war status quo is unacceptable to Tehran because it will not only be in a degraded state, but also in a continuously weakening state because its pathways to sanctions relief have been blown up. If Iran weakens further, it will only invite further American and Israeli aggression, Tehran believes, because it was the false perception of Iranian weakness that created the "window of opportunity" to attack Iran in the first place. Sanctions relief is, as a result, a necessity to ensure that the war doesn't restart. But here is where Iran may miscalculate. Trump may not yet have reached the point at which the cost of continuing the war is so high that he opts to offer sanctions exemptions to select countries to get Iran's agreement to open the straits and end the war. He will likely only reach that point once it's clear that his base is starting to turn against the war in a serious manner. At that point, Trump will face a time crunch. He will need a narrative in which he declares himself a victor - with his base believing it. Absent the ability to convince his base that he has won, the benefit of ending the war may not outweigh the cost of continuing it. And as soon as his base starts turning against the war, his ability to convince them of his victory starts to wane. Mindful of the fact that negotiating this end may take an estimated 7-10 days at best, which is different from the 24 hours or so it took to negotiate the unconditional ceasefire in June, Tehran may overplay its hand and only agree to enter these negotiations at a point at which the length of the negotiations may exceed the time Trump has left to convincingly declare victory and provide himself a face saving exit. Getting the timing of this right will be very difficult for both the US and Iran. Israel will do all it can to sabotage any such off-ramp, including by killing Iranian's negotiatiors. But it will become increasingly clear - if it hasn't already - to Trump that all his escalatory options only deepen the lose-lose situation he has put himself in. That's why Trump should never have listened to Netanyahu in the first place.

@PiersUncensored @piersmorgan @normfinkelstein @jconricus @MearsheimerJ Conricus is in a different league than these people.

"I really look forward to seeing their doomsday prophecies shattered at the face of reality!" Norman Finkelstein and Jonathan Conricus go head-to-head over the US-Iran war. Don't miss it 👇 📺youtu.be/YNcyU4YSp3w @piersmorgan | @normfinkelstein | @jconricus | @MearsheimerJ

@Osint613 "Well, I am not gonna say, what..." I wonder what the original sentence was in his mind. "what we are planning" ? 🤣

Netanyahu: “Reza Pahlavi has been a force for good.”

@sentdefender No, he was perfectly clear that, ultimately it will depend on whether the Iranian people rise up or not. And he has no control over that. So of course it's not 100%. Nothing is.

If Netanyahu is saying this, expect that the White House will soon begin or has already begun looking for an “off ramp” in the conflict against Iran.

@shashj That will help drive down oil price, which gains time for US / Israel to finish the war. 👌

"Several governments — including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China — are in direct talks with Tehran, coordinating vessel transits via an emerging IRGC-run registration and vetting system At least nine ships have already used the corridor" lloydslist.com/LL1156656/Iran…

@IranSpec do you think it will happen after the war? aren't you afraid that the longer the bombing goes on the more people will be alienated?

You know I’m blunt and dry. If there was no chance of the collapse of the Islamic Republic, I would openly say it. But I’ll tell you now, 2-3 months. In 1 month the process will begin (uprisings, defections, military elements switching sides) You will be seeing politicians you NEVER would have expected, leaving for Moscow. You will also see both Artesh & IRGC commanders switching sides.

@citrinowicz Its intersting the you cut this one sentence and not the part where he says “the regime is in collapse”

Iran may ultimately emerge strengthened from this campaign. By continuing to leverage the tools at its disposal particularly control over the Strait of Hormuz — it is effectively forcing regional and global actors to factor Iran into any equation involving Gulf energy flows. In practice, this creates a form of coerced interdependence: states that seek access to Gulf energy may find themselves needing to accommodate Iran, whether directly or indirectly. And should we really be surprised if, in order to ensure the passage of tankers, the US administration ends up offering concessions to Iran under current conditions? Almost certainly not. This is precisely the kind of leverage Tehran seeks to create — turning control over maritime chokepoints into political and economic bargaining power. There is real doubt that this dynamic will fundamentally change once the fighting ends.

@DutchGoonerNB @citrinowicz Ohhh now i understand the confusion. You misspelled Tehran.

@kremmerpeter @citrinowicz The only AI video's I have seen are of Bibi in a coffeeshop. There's a reason MSM reporters are prohibited to show any damage done in Tel Aviv. There's a reason locals can get jailtime up to 5yrs for posting pics or vids from Tel Aviv right now. But yeah, damaged.

A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar‌

@daniel_debunker @TheEconomist I think it was right to remove Saddam Hussein, yes.

@kremmerpeter @TheEconomist Like Trump, did you cheer on the Iraq invasion? What's your views of it now? And does that mean you support Saddam and approve of gassing Kurds? Shou;d we invace North Korea? If not, why not? Do you love Kim Jong Un and want him to kill more NK civillians?

The reckless campaign against Iran will weaken America’s president. That will make him angry. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser econ.st/4lA7lEQ

@jarkouzal @DustinB71676118 @glcarlstrom 20 thousand missiles??? That is a ridicules statement. You think Israel doesn't know about them.

@DustinB71676118 @kremmerpeter @glcarlstrom Indeed, no clear estimate. I would expect more than 20,000 and over 50,000 drones. They also possess thousands of anti-ship and other missiles. Plus more than enough man-portable air-defense systems and FPV drones to confront anything send against them.

The Iranian theory of the war boils down to "everyone else has a lot more to lose than we do". A question that should follow: what if that's true, but it doesn't end up mattering on a timetable that's helpful to the regime? There's a scenario in which the world staggers out of this with a prolonged energy crisis that does enormous damage to the global economy *and* things end very, very badly for the regime and Iran as a whole.

@Osint613 "Iranian people will say maybe we do need to listen to IRGC" ... how many Iranians did he actually talk to????

Joe Kent on Iran: “Ali Larijani was a negotiator who was eager to get us a deal.”

@PrimeSkillX @ripplebrain North Korea also has elections.

@kremmerpeter @ripplebrain lol Iran had elections and he fucking lost You are stupid

Literal professor of Political Science with a PhD, written multiple academic books, etc, you know the drill at this point

@jarkouzal @glcarlstrom OK, so how many missiles do you think they had before the war? They fired around a 1000 and definitely some were destroyed.

It seems you think Iran has reached its potential in this conflict. I think they’ve only just warmed up and are beginning a broader push to reshape the Middle East and beyond. They seem to have time on their side and are willing to wait for the next escalation. There’s no real sense of urgency. So far, they haven’t done anything that would clearly mark a major escalation - it looks more like measured, proportional responses. I believe they will try to bring down governments across the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces will be forced to withdraw under fire, with widespread destruction. Iran would likely aim to extract major reparations and reintegrate into the international community. Other Gulf states could end up operating under Iran’s pressure, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, with long-term impacts on their stability and quality of life.

@DutchGoonerNB @citrinowicz "Tel Aviv has been reduced to rubble" 🤣 Yes, the indiscriminate cluster bombs caused damage. That's true. but if you judge this war on AI videos, that is your choice.

@kremmerpeter @citrinowicz Tel Aviv has been reduced to rubble and Iran is still bombing the ish out of Israel, we just aren't able to see this because of heavy censuring. Iran took big hits, that's correct, but according to Trump they have been totally destroyed, which is just plane false and lies.

@DutchGoonerNB @citrinowicz by losing all their military assets? OK

@kremmerpeter @citrinowicz Wishful thinking, nothing more. Iran is winning

@TheEconomist On the link all I see is the explanation why your headline is impossible to measure.

“Increasingly Iranians rage that their country, not the regime, is under attack. Support for foreign intervention has dwindled.” Nick Pelham explains why attitudes in Iran are changing economist.com/middle-east-an…

@AimenDean @nickbot21 Not to mention the loss revenue due to sanctions imposed exectly for this nonsense

Mr Foreign Object, sorry, I mean, Mr Foreign Minister .. You might want to sit this one out when it comes to lecturing others about “wasting taxpayer money.” Your regime burned through roughly $2 trillion of Iran’s GDP between 2005 and 2025 defending an chasing a nuclear program whose economic return is, generously speaking, nonexistent. Zero. أقل من صفر. Then there’s another $350 billion poured into your favorite “export products”: the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and a small army of militias across Iraq. All were total loss investments! And just for good measure, you threw in $50 billion to fuel the Syrian catastrophe, propping up Assad, prolonging the Syrian civil war, and helping turn the country into rubble, with a million dead and over 12 million displaced. All in, we’re looking at something in the region of $2.4 trillion utterly water over the past two decades. $2.4 TRILLION DOLLARS!!!😳 And you want to talk about waste?! My dear enemy, you and your collapsing regime are absolutely the last people on earth qualified to give a lecture on financial responsibility. This is like a rat covered in 💩 crawling out of the sewer to deliver a TED Talk on hygiene🤢🤮

You assume that the IRGC somehow has unlimited capacity to absorb any amount of strikes and blows. That they have no problem with the moral of their soldiers. That they have infinite amount of missiles. Etc. Yes. They can hit back for now, but assuming they can go forever while US / Israel can bomb whatever they want and kill whoever they want is ridicules.

The Israeli attacks on Iranian oil & gas infrastructure with US-backing are not only a major escalation, but also they reek of desperation. Iran has retaliated across the region, causing extensive damages to LNG sites in Qatar & Bahrain, as well as pounding key facilities in Riyadh and Eastern Saudi Arabia. Trump has lost control of this war and is now stuck in the escalation trap. Its tactical successes notwithstanding, the US has totally failed to achieve any of its strategic objectives. Despite ongoing decapitations, the Iranian state has endured and is displaying mounting resolve. Iranian missiles and drones keep striking intended targets across the region from the Persian Gulf to Israel with a rising penetration rate with fewer launches. Most importantly, Iran is clearly in CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, not CLOSING it but allowing selective passage. In the face of these massive strategic failures, Trump has apparently decided to hitch his wagon to Netanyahu, considering a drawn-out war that involves deploying ground troops: whether as special forces to recover Iran's enriched uranium or under amphibious operations in littoral zones to seize Iranian energy facilities. Yet this is just what the Iranians are hoping for... easier access to US troops, who would be sitting targets on small Iranian islands or trapped inside Iran's underground nuclear labyrinths. Trump may have gotten manipulated into this reckless war by Netanyahu and his American backers with promises of quick victory and regime capitulation. But it is he and he alone who is allowing for this war to become his Vietnam. Iran has planned for a long attritional war. Everyday this war continues, Iran pays a heavy toll under sophisticated US/Israeli bombs, and yet its strategic situation improved precisely because Iran has been playing to its strengths— its strategic depth, geographic advantages, and assymetric plans. The United States, meanwhile, is unprepared for what's ahead and is escalating to compensate for its total loss of control of this war. This means it can act increasingly recklessly, immorally, and consider even more atrocious options. Israel, of course, doesn't care for Iranian collapse, regional destruction, or a global crisis. But many Americans do. As director of National Counter-Terrorism Center, Joe Kent had access to the highest intel and could read the writing on the wall. In this light, his resignation is a truly bad omen of the dangerous future that may be on the horizon. Trump is digging himself deeper into a quagmire with no golden off-ramps: this will cost America its dominance in the Middle East & beyond and destroy Trump's presidency—with him looking more and more like LBJ: America's worst modern president who also escalated a foolish war and sent thousands of Americans to their deaths over a Gulf peripheral to US interests. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇻🇳