@stocktalkweekly Great news. Thank You @stocktalkweekly for the timely updates. 🙏🏽
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BayAreadude
139 posts
@stocktalkweekly You doing OK, man? George Soros used to have backaches as warning signs before his portfolio went down. Maybe we should move to all cash now? 😂
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*BAHRAIN’S ANTI-IRAN RESOLUTION TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN REJECTED AT THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL, AFTER BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA USED THEIR VETO POWER
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@MiningStocksHQ Wheaton has been buying Silver mines lately, correct?
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Wheaton Precious Metals buys gold for $400 per ounce.
Gold sells for $4,650 per ounce.
That's $4,250 profit. Per ounce.
And they never touch a shovel.
Never run a mine.
Never pay an energy bill.
The stock is down 30% from January.
$WPM
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@alt_0241 POET is a potential supplier for Marvel. The risk/reward is higher with POET. Of course Marvel would give you solid returns that are firm compared to POET, but I wanted to take my chances.
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$SATS finally turned green on this position due to Space X IPO news. Hoping for more gains in the coming weeks and months.
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@Mooni_Global Lumentum and Coherent had their runs. Look at $AAOI
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Photonics stocks Strategy for New beginners
1) Structure the space first (this is key)
Think of photonics in 3 layers:
Layer 1 — Hyperscaler / system demand (low beta)
•NVIDIA
•Broadcom
•Marvell Technology
These are not “photonics pure plays” —
but they control the demand curve (AI clusters, networking, switches).
👉 If AI capex holds → these win first.
⸻
Layer 2 — Optical component leaders (core exposure)
•Lumentum Holdings
•Coherent Corp.
•MACOM Technology Solutions
•Fabrinet
👉 These are your real photonics beta
•lasers
•transceivers
•optical engines
Lumentum specifically has been exploding due to AI optical demand (datacenter optics scaling aggressively toward ~$90B TAM by 2030)
⸻
Layer 3 — high asymmetry / small caps (optional)
•POET Technologies
•Lightwave Logic
•Aeva Technologies
👉 These are story + execution bets
High upside, but:
•customer concentration risk
•commercialization timing risk
⸻
2) What actually matters right now (2026 lens)
This is the real driver:
👉 AI data center bottleneck = interconnect
•copper is hitting limits
•optics moving closer to chip (CPO / LPO / optical IO)
That’s why:
•Lumentum / Coherent → ripping
•NVIDIA investing directly in optics supply chain
⸻
3) How I would structure a portfolio
Simple framework:
Core (50–60%)
•Lumentum / Coherent / Marvell
👉 direct exposure to optical scaling
⸻
Platform leverage (20–30%)
•NVIDIA / Broadcom
👉 you’re betting on AI spend → optics follows
⸻
Optional asymmetry (10–20%)
•POET / smaller names
👉 only if you understand the tech + timelines
⸻
4) Current price point view (important)
Right now:
•Lumentum → strong momentum, but extended
•Coherent → better relative valuation
•MACOM → clean exposure, less crowded
👉 The trade is not “cheap vs expensive”
👉 It’s:
“who captures the architecture shift?”
⸻
5) One line takeaway
Photonics is not a theme.
👉 It’s the next bottleneck layer of AI infrastructure
And the winners will be:
•the ones closest to the data path
•not the ones just “in optics”
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@MoodyWriter13 BATS was acquired by CBOE. MIAX is a good candidate for acquisition by larger players.
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@stocktalkweekly Excellent insight. Howard Mark from Oaktree’s whole career is built on this philosophy.
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One of the greatest tools to afford yourself patience in markets is *low cost basis*
Buy at the right prices & you will be able hold thru volatility.
You'll also be able to stay exposed, so that you are less burdened by the stress of timing your re-entries on market recovery.
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@aleabitoreddit @PhotonCap @InvestWithFelix Why do you want somebody else to buy Sivers? Why take 2X when it has more upside potential?
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@InvestWithFelix Yep $POET is a massive beneficary. It’s more well known with Celestial.
Even analysts miss though Poet’s light source for ELS comes from $SIVE.
But huge for their whole ecosystem that Nvidia is validating it
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Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL.
This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap.
But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE)
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What are the 3 best photonic stocks?
I own $AAOI, and a small position in $SIVE.
I’m also considering starting a position in $SOI / $SLOIF (Soitec).
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@realroseceline Good analysis. Lot of folks don’t look under the hood. NOW is reasonable on the metrics but still SAAS isn’t popular right now.
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$TEAM looks like a cash machine at first glance.
~$1.3b operating cash flow
~$50m capex (tiny capex, only 4% of operating cash flow)
But then you see ~$1.5b in stock based comp and that’s the real spend.
In fact, they spend $165m more on SBC than they bring in from operating cash flow.
They’re paying employees with stock instead of cash, which makes cash flow look strong while diluting shareholders.
So yeah, capex is very low but the real reinvestment is SBC ($1.5b) and R&D ($3b).
If you treat SBC like a real cost, this business is a lot less “cash rich” than it looks.
🌹
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@aleabitoreddit Lucid is already flirting with 52 week low, not much upside left to shorting it.
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Maybe it’s time to start looking into the Doomsday ETF I made, as a hedge with $NVDA and $LCID?
Just in: “The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran”
It’s not confirmed yet… but seems likely now.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The Serenity Doomsday ETF: 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20%| $LCID Short 10% | $SQQQ 10% $UVIX 10% | $NVDA Puts Rationale: $FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart. $GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits. $SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled. $LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid. $UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up. $NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest. I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up. Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.
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Back when this account had under 10K followers, I published what I still consider one of my most important pieces:
How Silicon Photonics reveals SpaceX's real strategy. Not rockets, but light.
• Why 1550nm C-band is the backbone of Starlink's laser network
• How SpaceX job postings confirmed orbital data centers
• The supply chain winners behind a $1.25T space-AI empire
I'm starting to move select articles to paid. This one stays free for ~48 more hours.
Don't sleep on it.
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@BlackPantherCap All good picks. Right now the market is choppy. When the market turns, all these will run. We were nicely set up for a bull run until Iran happened. Now, everything including the midterm is at jeopardy.
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Everyone in your feed right now is telling you the market is going to zero.
I’ve seen this movie before. It was 2020. It was 2022. It played in 2023, 2024, and now here we are again in 2026 watching the same script.
Let me show you what actually happens when people listen to that noise.
JP Morgan tracked a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 from January 2003 to December 2022.
Twenty years. Through the dot-com bust aftermath, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, rate hikes, inflation, two recessions.
If you stayed fully invested: $64,844.
If you missed the 10 best days: $29,708.
Ten days. Out of 4,900+ trading days. And you’ve already given back more than half your gains.
Miss 20 best days: $17,826.
Miss 30: $11,701.
Miss 40: $8,048.
Miss 50: $5,746.
Miss 60: $4,205.
You started with $10,000. You’re now worth $4,205.
You didn’t just underperform. You LOST money in a twenty-year bull market.
Here’s the part that makes this worse.
7 of the 10 best days happened during bear markets.
In 2020, the second-best day in the entire dataset happened immediately after the second-worst day.
The people who panic-sold on the worst day missed the recovery the next morning.
They saw the crash. They didn’t see the bounce. They locked in the loss and called it smart risk management.
This is exactly what is happening in the current market.
The doom posts are everywhere. Tariff fears, recession calls, Fed uncertainty, geopolitical instability. I’m not dismissing any of it. These are real risks.
But real risks have existed in every single market cycle in recorded history, and the market has recovered from every single one of them.
My portfolio right now holds $RKLB, $IREN, $AAOI, $NBIS, $CIFR, $KRKNF, $OSS, $AMPX, and $ONDS.
All of them are down from their recent highs. All of them are building real businesses with real contracts.
None of the fundamental theses have changed.
$RKLB is winning government launch contracts.
$IREN is scaling AI data center infrastructure.
$AAOI is supplying the transceivers that run the hyperscaler buildout.
$NBIS is placing AI compute at the edge.
$AMPX is delivering battery technology with a military endorsement behind it.
The prices are lower. The businesses are not.
If I sell now to avoid the pain, I need to make two correct decisions: when to get out and when to get back in.
History shows that almost nobody gets both right.
Most people sell near the bottom and buy back in after the recovery has already happened.
They crystallize the loss and miss the gains.
I’m not selling.
The best days are unpredictable. That’s not a motivational poster, it’s a mathematical fact backed by 20 years of S&P 500 data.
The market doesn’t announce when it bottoms. It doesn’t send a notification when the best day of the decade is about to open. It just moves.
The only reliable edge the average investor has is time in the market. Not timing the market. Not reading the macro tea leaves better than a hedge fund with 400 analysts.
Time. Staying in. Letting compounding do what it does.
Zoom out. Your thesis hasn’t changed. The businesses haven’t changed. The trends driving the next decade of growth haven’t changed.
The doom posts will age poorly. They always do.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. This is my personal opinion, strategy and belief. You should under no circumstances replicate it without conducting a professional advisor.
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@Kaizen_Investor It’s better to be in cash right now, but if you’re comfortable riding out the turbulence not a bad idea.
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I'm currently at 20% cash, my highest cash position ever. It's not because I sold, but mainly because I haven't added extra cash in a while.
Starting from next week, I will start to use this cash again. I'm still considering which positions I will strengthen.
I probably won't buy the $IREN dip.
$IREN is currently 6% of my portfolio and I'm down 20% on the position. I'm still bullish long-term but I don't feel that this is the moment to buy the dip.
I feel that the market is still de-risking. Pre-revenue stocks like $OKLO have dropped 71% from the highs.
In industries like datacenters or space, the safer stocks are currently outperforming the market. For space, the positive free cash flow of $PL is giving them the edge. In the datacenter environment, $NBIS is clearly outperforming.
IREN's business model makes that they are the high risk - high reward play in the datacenter industry. To put it simply, they buy the $NVDA GPUs and lend them. So, IREN is not only providing the power, they are providing the hardware as well. Other business models, only provide power.
This makes that $IREN needs more cash than other companies do in the space. The $6b ATM is a logical consequence.
I don't agree that the $6b ATM is just "noise". I also don't agree that this is the end. I know that they only issued the option to activate the $6b ATM, but I don't see why you would issue the option without confirming it.
They won't activate this yet though. They just bought the newest Nvidia GPUs without the ATM. These GPUs will be used to attract a new hyperscaler deal. This new deal will bring more cash but, it will be paid in multiple steps.
So, I believe the activation will only happen after $IREN announces a new deal and need more cash to buy more GPU's to attract another deal. The first new deal should push the stock higher and make the ATM less impactful than it would be today.
An ATM is never completely noise though. Noise does not impact the balance sheet, an ATM does. In a market where the key theme is de-risking, a company where the Sword of Damocles is hanging over their head, is probably not the best choice now.
Might add some more when the broader market shift changes, but happy with my position at the moment.
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor
The ATM trend continues: Following $IREN's massive $6B ATM offering filing, $AAOI has followed suit, filing for its own $250M ATM. Do you know what an ATM actually is, and why it should concern you as a shareholder? Let me explain An At-The-Market (ATM) offering is a mechanism a publicly traded company uses to raise cash by creating new shares of stock and selling them directly into the open market at the current trading price. Imagine a company that owns a glass safe. In the safe is exactly $10. The company has 10 shares at the moment, all trading at $1. If you own 1 share, you have the right to 10% of what is in the vault (so, $1). It is an open market, so everyone can see what is in the safe. The company now wants to do an ATM of $5, which means they will be looking for 5 new shareholders to put $1 extra in the safe. If 5 new shareholders put an extra $5 in the safe, the safe will be worth $15 and there are now 15 shares. Still all worth $1. You now own 6.67% of a $15 company instead of 10% of a $10 company. So, if the math balances perfectly, why does the stock price almost always drop? 1. True, for the first part of the explanation we can stay with our virtual safe company. Why would a person pay $1 to get a $1 share in return? There might be a risk that the safe gets stolen. He wants a return. So to convince new investors, you will probably have to sell the new shares at $0.95. This has an immediate negative impact on the existing shareholders. The more shareholders you need to find, the lower the convincing price will become. When the price drops, existing shareholders might want to sell as well. This can become a negative spiral. 2. Another immediate impact is that the EPS will drop. Let's say that after the money is 1 year in the safe, it will return $0.1. So in the beginning the $10 will return $1 each year. Every investor will get $0.1 and the EPS will be 0.1. Now there is $15 in the safe, but the last $5 will not return money for another year. The $1 realized profit will now have to be divided over 15 shares. The EPS will automatically drop to 0.067. 3. For the final negative part, we need to leave the safe example. In a real company, the value is different for every investor. The share price is a constant battle between supply and demand. With an ATM, the supply obviously increases while the demand might not. The demand could increase as well, as investors might think that the board might do great things with the new money. But when the ATM is big, the pressure of the constant new supply might be overwhelming. Conclusion So, the share price certainly does not have to come down with a small ATM. If investors trust the company to achieve high returns with the fresh money, the ATM might be a great decision. But the 3 consequences explained here will put constant pressure on that stock price. Convincing new shareholders, a lower EPS and a constant new supply of shares might be costly for existing shareholders.
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@StockMKTNewz It’s a choppy market right now. During bull markets, these high beta names might fare better.
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