BuildAndBet

Wild Prediction: While Anthropic is paving the path and leading the charge in enterprise AI, the long term winner will be $MSFT. They already own distribution and it's only a matter of time until they leverage OAI to build competing enterprise services. Distribution always wins.

Hi @PaperGainsInc , can you share why do you prefer selling ITM calls for hedging instead of collars?

@RealMattMoney Matt in one of the streams you had shared your allocation strategy but I’ve forgotten 😄. Can you please share again? I believe you don’t have a specific allocation % for any one stock right?

5 figure dollar positions are cool… 5 figure share positions change your life. Keep accumulating.

@P_Remarks I just can’t shake of the feeling that a CapEx slowdown is coming.

@stocktalkweekly Does this market feel like late cycle expansion to you at all?

Clear-cut warning shared below on March 3rd. The repeated moving average rejections have now led us down to $646 (from $680), which is a -5% drop. We're now selling into the 50-week SMA, which served as a bottom for the July-Oct 2023 correction, however in the April flash-crash of last year, we fell all the way to the 100-week SMA, which today sits at $606, and would constitute an additional 6-7% drop from here.

@HolySmokas TSLZ

I just sold 100% of one of these positions. Guess which

@Venu_7_ Buying any long positions here?

this is the phase where long term investors are born in this market

@Futurenvesting If that capital is used for buyback then it would be clear the company has no good strategy to grow the company.

Hear me out... $SOFI raised $1.6b at the end of 2025 at a share price of $27.50. The stock has dropped 42.3% since the last raise! Is it time to issue a stock buyback with the capital you raised? $SOFI issued ~58m shares. $SOFI has the opportunity to buy back ~100.5m shares using the $1.6b they just raised. SoFi would end up with the same amount of cash as before the raise, but with ~42.5 million fewer shares outstanding. This effectively undoes the dilution and provides an additional bonus reduction in share count, making each remaining share represent a larger percentage of the company. Anthony Noto would only do this if they believe they couldn't use the capital more effectively. That said, dilution has been a drag on the sentiment of this company, and this might be a creative way to get excitement back into the stock and raise EPS.

@KobeissiLetter Important question is - are you buying or selling?

BREAKING: Institutional investors sold -$11.0 billion of US equities last week, the largest weekly sale in 5 weeks. This comes after 3 consecutive weekly purchases totaling +$12.6 billion. At the same time, hedge funds bought +$1.8 billion worth of US equities, following 4 straight weeks of sales. Meanwhile, retail investors sold -$80 million, posting just their 3rd weekly sale over the last 10. In total, US equities recorded -$9.3 billion in outflows last week, up from -$1.0 billion the prior week, bringing the 16-week total to -$25.5 billion. This was primarily driven by single stocks, which saw -$8.3 billion in outflows, the 4th-largest since 2008, while ETFs posted -$1.1 billion in withdrawals, the most in 6 months. Institutional investors are moving to the sidelines.

@AmandaAskell or just allow wfh?

Tech companies pay millions of dollars for their employees and then stick them in open-plan offices that make it nearly impossible to get work done. Best strategy for poaching employees is probably to just offer them an office with a door.

@omisuniversal @1shankarsharma @riteshmjn Can you link to Shankar's facts please? I'm interested in learning more about his reasoning.

@1shankarsharma @riteshmjn @riteshmjn kindly provide a proper fact based reply or rest your case, Sharmaji has always had a fact based analytical approach.

He is absolutely right.

@eric_seufert It is all converging towards a point where agents will be central.

Meta partners with Stripe for in-ad shopping If Instant Checkout didn’t represent agentic commerce, using that term to describe Meta’s new ‘purchase-from-an-ad’ experience is simply absurd. An agent plays no role in this transaction: a user sees an ad and clicks a button to make a purchase. This workflow merely resurrects the social commerce model Meta had previously abandoned, with no agent involved whatsoever. The fact that this interaction format is being classified as agentic commerce underscores how diluted, distorted, and devoid of analytical rigor that phrase has become. mobiledevmemo.com/meta-partners-…

@LD4Runner @KrisPatel99 @Kross_Roads You’re selling ATM calls?

@KrisPatel99 @Kross_Roads I sold my MSFT months ago, still holding 200+ NVDA and making min $500 a week selling cc’s. It’s hard to sell when your dropping your cost basis $2.50 a week.

$MSFT and $NVDA are both incredibly attractive here, but I'd pick Nvidia easily. Three reasons: 1⃣ Nvidia is at the epicenter of the AI wave, which looks to continue for a while (likely surpassing most estimates). Microsoft is positioned decently and not going away, but I'd rather stick with the prime beneficiary rather than worry about software's moat. Further, with Microsoft and most of the hyperscalers, there are significant CapEx concerns. These concerns mostly benefit Nvidia. Unless you believe China invades Taiwan, or AI is a passing fad, it's just a cleaner bet. 2⃣ While forward P/E looks similar over the next 12 months, when we look 2 years out, it's clear $NVDA is more attractive. 3⃣ FCF trumps all, and the P/FCF of Nvidia is lower. And on a forward basis, substantially lower than $MSFT. Both are, over the long term, great opportunities, but Nvidia's returns will likely dwarf that of Microsoft.

@Kross_Roads @amitisinvesting $MSFT is the right choice here IMO. The -21% discount creates a great margin of safety that $NVDA's -5% doesn't. NVDA also has a lot of sensitivity to China demand and any of the hyperscalers not blinking on CapEx, relative to MSFT. NVDA has a higher upside but also higher risk

Because AI is real and Nvidia is at the epicenter. Microsoft is a steal here too, but unless you believe in China invading Taiwan or AI being a passing fad, it's hard to pick them over Nvidia. P/E in 12 months looks similar. In 24 months? Nvidia crushes MSFT. And forward P/FCF? It's not even close.

Would you rather buy $MSFT or $NVDA at these levels for a one year holding period? $MSFT — $370, -21% YTD, $2.7T MC, 22x FWD PE $NVDA — $179, -5% YTD, $4.3T MC, 21x FWD PE

@eglyman @tryramp At what rate is the AI spend going up in proportion to the revenue growth?

Since 2023, the top quartile of AI spenders on @tryramp have more than doubled their revenue. Bottom quartile? Flat A roofing company in Texas. A window installer in Utah. A construction firm in Florida that grew 65% The gap is accelerating and most companies don't feel it yet

@jukan05 It started falling before Turboquant announcement though?

The fact that memory stocks are crashing because of Google’s Turboquant is a pretty good indicator of how many clueless people this market is filled with. It’s like saying Aramco should crash because Toyota came out with a next-generation hybrid engine.

@firstadopter People in early 2000s probably - "Internet companies still use a lot of Newspapers"

OpenAI and Anthropic still use a lot of SaaS software!

@1shankarsharma @sandeep_PT At this point any "deal" can be claimed as victory no?

@sandeep_PT Indeed. So America cannot Retreat as a loser from the war. So what option does it have?

Look, based on almost every assessment, the ground invasion will result in 1000s of American deaths. So why do it? Maybe that's exactly why? Soldiers die. Body bags on TV. Public anger. Calls of " Nuke 'em". Under the cover of public anger, they then do exactly that....

@KrisPatel99 Have you bought already or waiting?

The amount of fear being pumped right now is hilarious... Keep at it boyzzz Im looking for discounts =).