EventBased

Kharg island will be targeted, Hormuz will be closed. Oil will go crazy, the world doesn’t suspect it yet.

Operation Rolling Thunder. From 1965 to 1968, the United States conducted a sustained bombing campaign against North Vietnam. The goal was to break the will of the North Vietnamese government and people. To make the cost of continuing the war too high to bear. They dropped 864,000 tons of bombs. The will was not broken. So they escalated. Operation Linebacker. Operation Linebacker II, the Christmas Bombings of 1972: twelve days of around-the-clock bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, described by some U.S. generals as trying to "bomb them back to the Stone Age." Hospitals were hit. Residential areas were hit. Bạch Mai Hospital, the largest hospital in North Vietnam, was hit repeatedly. After the Christmas Bombings, the North Vietnamese negotiating position at the Paris Peace talks did not weaken. It strengthened. They bombed us into refusing to surrender. Every bomb that fell on a hospital, every family killed in their home, every village erased from the map created ten more people who would die before they accepted foreign domination. This is what American strategists, with all their degrees and all their think tanks and all their war games, failed to understand about the people they were trying to break. You cannot bomb dignity out of people who have decided they would rather die than give it up.

@gbrew24 Genuinely why would anyone ever put boots on the ground in Kharg? It’s nowhere near the strait, and capturing export infra solves nothing. The whole thing is ridiculous…

The island of Qeshm, which lies along the north end of the Strait of Hormuz, has a population of 150-180k. The city of Bandar Abbas on the coast has 500,000 people. Kharg Island has approximately 8,000.

The Marine force being sent to potentially occupy parts of Iran, a country of 90 million people, is approximately the same size as the force used to invade the island of Grenada in 1983.

@econ_713 @RMcdonnold Genuine question: How? And with Whom do you negotiate?

@RMcdonnold 🎯

(Jay-Z voice): “best rapper alive”

So all of Western Europe is in range. That is quite the shot over the bow.

@zerohedge @Swingbarrel They are almost assuredly net long. They had to sell the front and buy back 120% of the sales further back the futures curve. April rolled off, so some shorts expired as well.

*OIL LOANED TO 8 COMPANIES, INCLUDING SHELL, MARATHON, TRAFIGURA Trafi now short oil.

People need to stop talking about ground troops landing on Kharg. That is just totally retarded as a stand alone invasion. Only accomplishes stopping exports and then what, the Iranians are going to keep pumping crude there???

Okay anyone saying that taking Kharg island has anything to do with being able to open the strait does not get it. The reason Kharg matters is because if you remove their opportunity cost of closing the strait, it’ll be closed for the long haul.

@CRUDEOIL231 @TeddyGambino Was literally just thinking the same thing watching K6 WTI drift back down to $92. Really does feel like a gift this buying opportunity. Backer vol in particular feels way too low.

The more oil prices stay capped and financial markets hold up, the less incentive there is to end the war. Everyone is betting on TACO, but that very expectation is exactly what’s pushing it further away. Meanwhile, in the real world, the Strait remains closed and supply is just bleeding out. Given the projected drawdowns in both waterborne and onshore inventories, late March and mid-April are likely going to be the next major inflection point. At the end of the day, a quick restoration of flows is the only real fix. But the more we tell ourselves "it's fine, nothing’s happening" today, the higher the odds that this absolute dumpster fire of a reality just drags on. It’s a total paradox. The clock is ticking, and eventually, the physics of the market will catch up with reality. I honestly believe you guys need to get this. The outcome is pretty much baked in at this point based on how the timeline is playing out. Today’s rhetoric is just killing any incentive for a better tomorrow. In just a matter of days, we’re going to be staring down an unfixable situation—long after everything is already broken. #oott #iran

@JoshYoung @Nostre_damus Agreed, at what point do all the south asian laborers decide they want the piece too.

@Nostre_damus I do wonder about the risk of insurrection

native Emiratis are only 12% of the entire population If the UAE is going to declare war on Iran, are they going to draft tourists into the military?

@HayekAndKeynes Wishful thinking. Iran’s not ready to cry uncle.

More deescalation

La localisation du porte-avions français Charles de Gaulle rendue possible grâce à l'imprudence d'un marin utilisant l'application de running Strava, rapporte Le Monde. En faisant son footing sur le pont, il révélait la présence du navire.

lol these headlines have got to be smoking people. Both those that have it on the right way and all the algos selling into the headlines.

And there we go.

@firstenercast Probably less so in my estimation. Lot of the low hanging marginal demand destruction got weeded out in 2022. Now only those with less elastic demand remain.

2022 -- russian gas rerouted 2026 -- qatari gas shut-in 2026 is arguably worse, but price response more muted is the global gas market truly more resilient?

@Holy_Helicity Pan capital has to be rolling in it.

V/F doing a thing, -$1.83 last trade. 👀 #natgas

Idk that that economist article really warrants the BZ/CL spread moving out this much. #oott

Crude right now: #OOTT

This is getting pretty close to worst case scenario for everyone involved. Iran is heavily incentivized to weaponize their HEU.

@calvinfroedge Basket them brother

The reason why I can't say balls deep energy is because the landscape is so volatile. Who is going to have headline risk? Field disruptions. Rig suspensions. Shut-Ins. Windfall taxes. Export bans. And of course ceasefire. Really dangerous environment for investment.

Let’s hope it never comes to this. If FPV drones start hitting U.S. soldiers like the footage we see from the Ukraine war, memes won’t be funny anymore. War is not a joke. Period.