Jeff

@KevRGordon @Todd_Sohn @StrategasRP Crazy stat!

“3rd week in a row showing this, but wow” @Todd_Sohn @StrategasRP

@SamanthaLaDuc @JulietteJDI Agree, Juliette is one of the best!

By far, my favorite macro analyst out there. 🎩

@RachelDashCS Thanks for all you share, Rachel. Good stuff!

Every day I wake up and thank the Lord for this blessing of being able to do what I love every single day. This job never ever feels like work. I just want to thank all of you for all the support you have given me doing what I do. Very grateful for all of you, you all make this even more of a dream! 🙌

@jam_croissant @AdithiaKusno Awesome data, thank you!

POP-ulism 🎈

@TechCharts Right you are, and the direction will have big impacts on other markets.

101 on the upside, 96.5 on the downside. $DXY whichever breaks, I will position accordingly.

@DKellerCMT Maybe a breakout and retest of the Dec high?

Bearish momentum divergences like $AVGO usually resolve in one of two ways... 📈 New upswing on stronger momentum negates the divergence 📉 Price rotates lower as weaker momentum weighs on investor optimism Which will we see for $AVGO?.....

@DKellerCMT Yep, strange times. Great observations.

About 8.5% of $SPX members made a new 52-week low yesterday. 👀 "A healthy bull market features an expansion in new 52-week highs."

@RBAdvisors Interesting times.

Bubble are inflationary because they grossly misallocate capital. So while #DataCenter construction is going wild (+34% y/y) #NFIB #SmallBusiness #Capex plans are at recessionary levels.

@DariusDale42 Gonna frame this one and put it on the wall. Well said, Darius.

MARKETS: A secular bear market is highly likely to follow the peak of the AI capex bubble. Key drivers: 1. A historical pattern of capital misallocation (e.g., building too aggressively to meet pollyannish ROIC expectations and accelerating depreciation schedules) amid waves of post-IPO-lock-up selling; 2. The deteriorating geopolitical world order demands US reindustrialization and global remilitarization, which implies the $28 trillion US net international investment deficit will likely narrow over time from a starting point of foreign investors currently owning 31% of the US stock market; and 3. The deteriorating domestic political order dramatically increases the probability of nationwide wealth taxes, states nullifying federal pro-jobs legislation (e.g., TX & FL), states nullifying federal pro-AI legislation (e.g., CA & NY), and/or outright secession amid rising anxiety regarding employment. Both sides learned the hardest way imaginable in the Civil War that, “The enemy gets a vote.” Do NOT try to time it. Leave such sorcery for cocksure newsletter writers and their gullible victims. You don’t have to sell the exact tops of market cycles to protect your nest egg—insofar as you don’t have to buy the exact bottoms of market cycles to grow it. You’ll be far better off respecting the wisdom of the crowd and responding to capital flow dynamics than trying to pick tops and bottoms. NO INVESTOR IN HISTORY has demonstrated consistent success with the foolish “strategy” that picking tops and bottoms represents. Don’t confuse luck with skill. Don’t confuse an n of 1 with a repeatable process. And, most importantly, stop trying to pick tops and bottoms if you want to retire on time and comfortably. 💜

@crescatkevin Crazy chart, Kevin!

Free cash flow race to the bottom.

@EconguyRosie Too obvious the market was being goosed.

The Fed is saying it has no intention of cutting rates. But it’s not about any inflation concern. It’s because the central bank has already been easing through the back door with its renewed balance sheet expansion – increasing at a 10% annual rate over the past four weeks! This liquidity bulge has added rocket fuel to the end-of-war market euphoria. Never mind Donald Trump – Jay Powell still has your back!

@MarionRKerr Congratulations, Marion!

FESTIVAL PREMIERE!🎥🎬 A couple years ago, I went to Mississippi to shoot a movie & now that movie, COME WITH ME, is having its premiere at the Beverly Hills Film Festival on Sat, 4/18 @ 6:35 pm at the Chinese 6 in Hollywood! beverlyhillsfilmfestival.com/film/come-with… Love to see you guys there!

@RBAdvisors Congrats!

Richard Bernstein Advisors is now officially a part of Janus Henderson Investors. Our independent, research-driven process remains intact, now supported by Janus Henderson’s broader resources. Find out more here: ir.janushenderson.com/News--Events/n… #BrighterFutureTogether

@SamanthaLaDuc Wow, crazy!

I wasn't bearish housing industry until THIS news. $FNMA $BTCUSD #CryptoBackedMortgages

@RayDalio Can you mentor me?

I am at a stage in life where my main objective is to pass along to others the principles I have learned over the last 60 years that have helped me and that I think can help others. I believe that some of the most important investment principles I can pass along are about what an “All Weather Portfolio” is and how to build such a portfolio. I think these principles are especially valuable during risky times like now. As always, I welcome your questions and thoughts. x.com/RayDalio/statu…

@RayDalio Very grateful for this, Ray.

I have been an economists for a very long time. I have always been a little surprised by how some people will talk about recession as a necessary reset or a “cleans.” There is this “let them eat cake” kind of mentality that emerges that somehow a recession is like a fast for a day and healthy. Recessions are painful, especially when accompanied by inflation. I became an economist as a fluke - it was the only class open when I registered & it sounded interesting. I loved the math and the intuitive study of collective human behavior. It gave me an understanding for the train wreck of an economy I experienced growing up in the modest suburbs of Detroit as a kid. My best friend’s dad died of cancer when I we were in high school. She stopped bringing lunch to school - there was no money for food. Her family dug up their backyard to plant a garden & put food on the table. Her yard was bigger than the postage stamp of my own, but the ground was toxic. Many of her siblings died of cancer very young. I still remember the smell of baked bread - it was the only bread they could afford. My mom, who was on her own tight budget, gave me money to buy her lunch each day. Stagflation and recession were brutal. The scarring effects of all those years ago linger. Families broke down & vicious cycles of poverty emerged in towns that became known as the Rust Belt for their rusting factories. Recessions are ugly, unpredictable and leave a scar. Those accompanied by inflation are worse. The economy is not a single body that can be fit from a “cleans,” as I have so often heard in my career. It is a complex system that has increasingly seen inequality worsen in the wake of recessions. Income inequality hit a low as measured by the Gini coefficient in 1979 in the US. We have been seeing a rise in inequality ever since, with more sidelined for long periods after recessions, with perhaps the brief surge in hiring we saw in the wake of the pandemic. That is over. We are already flirting with a payroll recession, which is showing up as losses in payroll employment. I would like to believe that rate cuts could cure what ails us, but I fear what we are enduring is systemic. Lower interest rates cannot spur hiring with firms dealing with so much uncertainty. That means the Fed should focus more on inflation. I hate to think of what a recession to derail the inflation we are enduring would look like, although I think about it a lot. It is not pretty. The economy is about people’s lives and livelihoods. It is what you deal with when you walk in your front door if you have one to walk through. It is worrying about feeding and sheltering your kids. It is about all the choices we make every day. It is a living organism that does not do better when pain is broader. I will never say a recession is good. Recessions are hard. We may have to suffer one to derail inflation - I hope not but worry that may end up being the case. That is a horrible place to be. Food for thought. I have seen talking heads talk about a recession with a cavalier attitude. I find that hard to witness. The tails risks of recessions are large. They hurt people. Break bread not ties. Empathy is a gift to few share. Time to fill our cups with it.

@TaviCosta Agree Tavi.

This chart couldn’t be more relevant for what’s unfolding right now. Agricultural commodities are starting to move, but the real move hasn’t happened yet. As energy prices settle at higher levels — much like metals already have — I expect agricultural commodities to begin accelerating as well. Commodity markets rotate, and agriculture is likely next in line. @tavicosta/p-190050664" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tavicosta/p-1…

@LizThomasStrat Give it time, Liz. 🤪

💥🛢️ Most negative oil supply shock on record, yet stocks are in just a 4% drawdown. Big departure from the market freakouts we’ve seen in recent years.