Max Powderz
2.9K posts
NEW: Pentagon Reveals Attacks in Latin America Are Just the Beginning
With “Operation Total Extermination” and Trump’s threats against Cuba, expect more U.S. military strikes in the region.
theintercept.com/2026/03/23/tru…
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@InsiderGeo And getting to that place will take time. Kinda obvious that if both sides remain rigid no deal ever happens. The question is how long will it take to find the middle ground and how much damage was incurred to get there.
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TAKE: There’s a lot of talk about “peace talks”, but the real question is simpler: what can each side actually accept? Not in theory, but in reality. That’s where deals are made and it’s also where most of them fall apart. 🧵(1/8)
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@StealthQE4 Market is betting trump just folds and oil starts to flow even if that means iran controls hormuz. The question is whether trump can tolerate the humiliation of a loss or can spin it as a win. Remember covid? Watched it coming for a month and market was fine until shutdown in us.
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If I was a gambling man I bet these two get it done to end the war.
The market is certainly thinking so.
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
Trump says Vance and Rubio are participating in talks with Iran to end war
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Max Powderz retweeted
This has been stated policy for a very long time.
Alex Ward@alexbward
Trump on Iran: “they've agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon, they've agreed to that”
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@dampedspring @BrianVCaffrey Kinda doubt spx only down 5% from ath lasts much longer if hormuz remains closed. The incentive will come.
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I don't see incentives for either side to reach agreement. SPX down 5% from ATH, gold back at year end levels, BTC stable, bonds a little soft, oil up a bit sure. But where the U.S. incentive and certainly where's the Israel incentive. Iran needs and existential deal not a suicide deal
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The U.S. position hasn't changed. The trick isn't figuring out the U.S. and Israeli position it's whether a durable deal that completely emasculates Iran will be agreed to by Iran.
Andy Constan@dampedspring
Asked Claude for this (heavily guided the framework myself and used Claude for format). Seems about right. Basically something like JCPOA is possible and the new issues are impossible to bridge the gap.
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Max Powderz retweeted
NEW: Trump approval rating on economy reaches all-time low of 29%, lowest of either of his terms and lower than Joe Biden’s lowest rating. -Reuters
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@LindsayOnAir @abc4utah Ice is probably thinking, dont give the prisoners water? Why didnt we think of that?
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Max Powderz retweeted
👀 Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%.
Lower than Biden’s lowest rating.
Far lower than Trump’s first-term lowest.
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Max Powderz retweeted
If these are indeed the core points, they only underscore a deeper problem: Washington still doesn’t understand Iran or where it is heading.
Trump now faces three choices: accept Iran’s terms, walk away from negotiations, or settle for an empty framework that allows him to declare the war over without resolving anything.
These are terms Iran would not have accepted before the war, and certainly not after it. A regime that feels it has withstood pressure and is far less likely to compromise.
With a growing sense of victory and an increasingly radicalized system dominated by the IRGC, the prospects for a meaningful agreement are minimal.
If anything, this approach all but guarantees failure. Iran does not seek an endless war but it will not settle for a post-war strategic reality that leaves it exposed.
From Tehran’s perspective, any acceptable outcome must include guarantees against future attacks, compensation for the war, no restrictions on its missile and nuclear programs, and continued control over the Hormuz strains.
Anything short of that is unlikely to be accepted.
No go.
#ira
Sina Toossi@SinaToossi
Israel’s Channel 12 has now leaked what it claims is a U.S. “15-point document” to end the war with Iran. The reported mechanism is a one-month ceasefire, during which there will be negotiations over these terms. That alone is likely a non-starter for Tehran. Iran has been clear it does not want another temporary pause that allows the U.S. and Israel to rearm, rebuild, and return to the fight—as has already happened before. It is seeking a permanent settlement that allows it come out of economic isolation. Then there are the terms themselves. Much of this reads like a familiar maximalist wishlist: no enrichment on Iranian soil, dismantling core nuclear infrastructure, abandoning regional alliance network. In other words, demands that Iran has consistently rejected—before the war, and likely even more so now given the leverage it believes it has gained. At the same time, there is a notable U.S. offer: the reported offer of full sanctions relief, including removal of snapback threats. That suggests Washington may be signaling openness to a broader strategic tradeoff. So there may be the outline of something workable here. But as an opening bid, much of this still looks fundamentally misaligned with what Iran would accept—and therefore unlikely to get serious traction in Tehran without significant revision.
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Max Powderz retweeted
This means the world.🥹
Historic 9th slalom globe +
9/10 season slalom wins +
Olympic slalom gold +
17th globe 📈…
…pinch me
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Max Powderz retweeted
So Trump admin is [rightly] panicking about the Strait of Hormuz so they’re going to try to get Iran to agree to a 1-month ceasefire to negotiate during which I’m sure Trump wants the Strait open
Iran’s main leverage is the closed Strait and was attacked during last negotiations
GIF
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NEW: US 15-point document reportedly demands:
• No uranium enrichment on Iranian soil
• Decommissioning of Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow facilities
• End to Iranian funding of regional proxies
• Establishment of a free maritime zone in the Strait of Hormuz
via @phildstewart
Levent Kemal@leventkemaI
NEW: U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, NYT says. U.S. seeking month-long ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran - Israel’s Channel 12 citing three sources.
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@StealthQE4 "US sent a plan" - that's totally unacceptable to Iran. 😀 Is hormuz open?
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@biancoresearch Such a bullshit headline. Channel 12? No mention of hormuz. Did Iran agree to ceasefire? Nobody knows! Kushner and Witkoff? Please. Pretty much nothing on the 15 point plan is acceptable to Iran. Market pump.
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After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story.
No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.)
Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are afraid Trump will TACO.
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Times of Israel explanation:
Channel 12 says, Jerusalem is concerned that Trump and his team want to push quickly for “a framework agreement, an agreement in principle” with Iran, rather than insisting on these demands as a condition for halting the war.
According to three sources familiar with the details, the president’s top aides, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have shaped a process involving “the declaration of a monthlong ceasefire period, during which the sides would negotiate a 15-point agreement,” much like previous Trump administration-brokered agreements with Hamas in Gaza and with Lebanon.
החדשות - N12@N12News
מה דרש טראמפ מאיראן: זו התוכנית של נשיא ארה"ב לסיום המלחמה | המסמך שכבר הועבר למשטר האייתוללות n12.pro/4sGBLbh | @yaronavraham
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Max Powderz retweeted
Trump says the Iranians "agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon," framing it as a kind of breakthrough.
That's long been their official policy, even as they enrich to near-weapons grade levels.
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Citing a "Western Source" Israel's Channel 12 reports the 15 conditions for a potential monthlong ceasefire with Iran:
1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency and oversight inside Iran.
7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
8. Iran must cease the funding, direction and arming of its regional proxies.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.
In return, Iran would benefit as follows:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.
timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…
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Max Powderz retweeted
"No leaders left. The leaders are all gone. Nobody knows who to talk to, but we're actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly."
Hard to find a single sentence uttered by this man where the beginning and the end agree with each other.
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Max Powderz retweeted
Every headline now is something like:
China powers office building with spoonful of baker's yeast; America's new AI surgeon general says hot dogs count as vegetables
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Left unspecified in these hypotheses are the contours of any deal. Axios reported on U.S. demands and we have Trump’s comments today on what he claims Iran has agreed to. My guess is that, even under Hypothesis B, there would still be a significant gap between U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions. I don’t see Iran as being willing to give up its nuclear program, share control over the Strait of Hormuz, or do “low key” missiles. A more narrow arrangement in which Iran gives up its HEU for a non-aggression pledge seems equally unlikely. Iran knows that material is one of the few cards it has to play and isn’t going to trade it away for vague U.S. commitments.
The alternative is that Trump massively caves on all of this to end the war. Again, unlikely.
All this to say, I’m skeptical we’re about to have negotiations that end the war. 4/4
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WTF is happening between the U.S. and Iran? A few hypotheses.
A. Trump is greatly exaggerating the status of talks/odds of success to calm the markets, make people think the war is working, and buy himself time/decision space (including moving more forces into the theater). Also has the benefit of causing confusion in the Iranian system and later allowing Trump to say the Iranians said they were ready for a deal but weren’t.
This hypothesis would be consistent with the argument that Iran now sees advantage to dragging out the war to impose further costs and reestablish deterrence. And the related theory that Iran would see its negotiating hand as stronger as a result (ie, it wouldn’t agree to the terms that Trump claims Iran had agreed to). 1/
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If you’re writing the laws, you shouldn’t be playing the market. This is basic stuff. I have a bill that finally bans members of Congress from trading stocks. No loopholes. No exceptions.
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