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Prem Soni
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Prem Soni
@ValueWithPrem
Helping Indians build & protect generational wealth Advising Young Founders | Capital Strategy | Asset Protection | Jeweller | NISM certified Research Analyst
Joined Nisan 2020
1.5K Following29.4K Followers
@peeyushx 👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
QME
Middle East tensions are exploding. Trade routes are blocked. Panic is everywhere.
By every metric in the old financial rulebook, Gold should be skyrocketing to the moon right now. Instead, it’s stalling. Why?
If you hold any physical gold or ETFs, you need to read this immediately👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
English
The most credible explanation of this that I have seen is that Gulf purchases are drying up.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Gold prices extend losses to -5% on the day and silver falls over -10% as rate cuts are priced out due to rising inflation and soaring energy prices. Gold is now down nearly -$1,000/oz from its record high.
English
Gold is just telling you a liquidity crisis has arrived.
Documenting Saylor@saylordocs
Can anyone please explain me in simple words what the hell is going on with Gold???
English
Is the UAE selling their 74+ tonnes of gold holdings for USDollars?
…to defend their dirham currency = pegged to the US Dollar. The capital flight must be quite large out of Dubai on top of all the financial strains taking place.
English
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold and trade there is probably stuck.
Link: trademap.org/Country_SelPro…
English
Gold & Silver Falling Reason.🩸
1. Crude oil prices Up
2. Fed Interest rate Unchanged, Means signal for higher for longer
3. Profit Booking, Already Given huge return recently
4. Strength U.S Dollar
English
⚠️Why are gold and silver prices really falling?
Gold is down -14% and silver -28% over the last 3 weeks, despite the Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, and surging market volatility, conditions that would traditionally send precious metals higher.
Silver is falling harder because ~50% of its demand comes from industrial use, making it far more sensitive to a global economic slowdown triggered by the oil shock.
The reason is that gold is not driven by fear FOR NOW, it is driven by reserve flows from surplus countries.
After the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022, countries with large trade surpluses began shifting excess savings into gold instead of US Treasuries, making reserve accumulation the primary driver of gold prices.
The problem is that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is crushing export revenues for Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
With revenues collapsing, fears are rising that these countries may need to sell reserves, including gold, to cover government spending rather than accumulating more.
The shock is also rippling through Asia, as China, the world's largest oil importer, faces slowing growth that compresses its surpluses and reserve accumulation.
Put simply, the countries that were buying gold or own it in reserves would have to stop buying for some time or even be forced to sell at some point.
Meanwhile, silver is falling even harder because ~50% of its demand comes from industrial use, making it far more sensitive to a global economic slowdown triggered by the oil shock.
The structural case for gold is not broken, but gold for now moves with global trade, not global market fears.
English
@petrolandeco Sebebi burda adam tane tane açıklamış
x.com/i/status/20346…
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
Türkçe
Körfez ülkelerinin acil nakte ihtiyacı varsa Altın fiyatları ne olur konusunda bir çalışma..
Türkçe
Retail flows into Gold and Silver were record in Jan and Feb.
This is the reason why they are crashing now.
English
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher.
The Rich know Gold is now a Vault.
The Fire Extinguisher Illusion.
For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance.
If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon.
This was the old system. The logic was flawless.
But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed.
The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts.
The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted.
They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze.
So, they turned to Gold.
But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants.
As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed.
Then, a massive fire breaks out.
A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in.
The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!"
But they are watching the wrong variable.
What is happening to the wealthy merchants?
The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed.
Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults.
Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash.
The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire.
The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working.
They don't realize the fundamental shift:
Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants.
When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up.
When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying.
Conclusion
• The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand.
• The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues).
• The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up.
It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market.
RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook.
Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation.
Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
You will NEVER see GOLD at these levels again in your lifetime.
English
@DudeWhoInvests @BharatKVyanjan Reason behind today’s move in gold👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
English
Makes LITERALLY ZERO sense. GOLD the hedge for geopolitical instability is crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. Can’t make this up.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Spot gold extends its selloff to -$400/oz on the day, now trading at $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd.
English
Reason for today’s move in gold👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
English
Inflation is like the cost of groceries going up in the town it matters but it doesn't dictate the price of the Masterpiece.
What moves the price right now is whether those big factory owners (surplus countries) have excess cash to keep buying. Sovereign flow is overpowering the inflation narrative.
English
@ValueWithPrem If this is the case the inflation might try to catch gold right? Or that also changing in coming days?
English
@saylordocs Reason behind this move👇🏻
Prem Soni@ValueWithPrem
The Middle class thinks Gold is a Fire Extinguisher. The Rich know Gold is now a Vault. The Fire Extinguisher Illusion. For decades, the financial world operated on a very simple rule: Gold is your emergency insurance. If a fire breaks out in the town a war, a market crash, a sudden panic everyone rushes to the hardware store to buy a fire extinguisher. Demand skyrockets, and the price of fire extinguishers (Gold) goes to the moon. This was the old system. The logic was flawless. But a few years ago, the rules of the town completely changed. The Town Mayor (the US Government) got into a bitter dispute with a wealthy merchant (Russia) and permanently froze his bank accounts. The other wealthy merchants in town the massive oil barons (the Middle East) and the giant factory owners (China) watched this happen in absolute horror. They realized that keeping their billions in surplus profits inside the Mayor's Bank (US Treasuries) was a massive risk. With one phone call, their wealth could be deleted. They needed a new place to park their massive profits. An asset the Mayor couldn't freeze. So, they turned to Gold. But they weren't buying Gold to put out fires. They were buying Gold to build massive, heavy, un cancellable Vaults. Gold transitioned from being an emergency tool for the panicked masses, into the ultimate, neutral savings account for the world's richest merchants. As long as the merchants were exporting goods and making record profits, they took all their extra cash and bought more Gold to build bigger Vaults. The price of Gold steadily climbed. Then, a massive fire breaks out. A blockade shuts down the town's main river (the Strait of Hormuz). Trade stops. Energy prices spike. Panic sets in. The middle class sees the fire and immediately thinks: "Emergency! Time to buy fire extinguishers! Gold is going to skyrocket!" But they are watching the wrong variable. What is happening to the wealthy merchants? The river is blocked. Their oil ships are stuck. Their factory supply chains are crippled. Suddenly, they aren't making record profits anymore. Their cash flow has collapsed. Because they have no extra cash coming in, they immediately stop building new Gold Vaults. Even worse, to keep their businesses afloat and pay their bills during the massive fire, some of these merchants actually have to break off pieces of their existing Gold Vaults and sell them for cash. The price of Gold drops or stalls right in the middle of a massive, terrifying fire. The middle class is left completely confused, holding their paper tickets, wondering why their "safe haven" isn't working. They don't realize the fundamental shift: Gold no longer reacts to the fear of the fire. It reacts to the cash flow of the merchants. When global trade is booming and the merchants are rich, Gold goes up. When trade is blocked and the merchants are squeezed, Gold goes down even if the blockade is terrifying. Conclusion • The Fire Extinguisher (Old Model): Gold driven by panic, volatility, and safe-haven demand. • The Vault (New Model): Gold driven by Central Bank reserve accumulation and trade surpluses (export revenues). • The Blockade (The Reality Check): A geopolitical shock that should cause panic-buying instead causes a collapse in the exact export revenues that have been holding the gold market up. It perfectly flips the old script and explains why a "bullish" geopolitical event is suddenly causing a bearish reaction in the metals market. RT If this changed how you view the markets, to help others break free from the old rulebook. Follow me @ValueWithPrem for more breakdowns on macro shifts and wealth creation. Does this change your thesis on holding physical gold? Why or why not?
English
Can anyone please explain me in simple words what the hell is going on with Gold???
English