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My friend is smarter than me. She worked with me at Morgan Stanley then did private equity before GSB before doing corporate jobs in Tech. She’s now chief of staff for an AI startup that recently got over $100mm of funding.
Her new boss is the COO who is a NYC finance guy. He hilariously cares about formatting. Don’t worry junior bankers, AI won’t take your job. Too much bad muscle memory in middle and senior mgmt focused on turning over decks to “add value.”
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@devahaz Next Pod episode @Jason will back paddle saying he actually always voted Democrat over 20 years and @chamath and @DavidSacks will deny they ever visited Mar-a-Lago
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A lot of indirect pricing is Capacity driven which is extremely understated because of US grid being decentralized (to a certain extent). Pure commodity cost and basis cost are drivers but the capacity costs lead pricing directionally and make it inversely correlated at time. Capacity structure varies by each ISO/RTO, effectively by what region of US you live in. Basically not a uniform across the country. PJM & NY ISO market more sophisticated in capacity structure while ERCOT (Texas) is not. Pricing stability wise it can go either way. Ever going debate about which structure is better. But as a commodity analyst, you got to pay attention to capacity markets.
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I now understand how electricity is priced better than 99% of people after watching this video
2 minutes well spent, watch this ex-Citadel simply explain the power market
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@MohapatraHemant @Airbound_Aero Looks great. What happens to boxes that need to stay upright/vertical noticing that the drone has hybrid flight mode (switches from vertical take off to horizontal/fwd flight mode).
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Today we are proud to bring our portfolio company @airbound_aero out of stealth and announce it to the world at large. We met Naman Pushp, the founder, when he was just 17yrs old but by then he had already dropped out of CMU and spent a year building a VTOL prototype that blew our minds during demos. Over the last 1.5yrs, Airbound has obsessed to build the world's most advanced and aerodynamic Blended Wing Body Tailsitter drones for consumer-grade deliveries. To do this, we've had to design, fabricate, mfg, and heat-treat an entirely new kind of carbon fibre chassis that is almost as light as an A4-sheet of paper, and has the world’s best strength-to-weight ratio - a 22g airbound drone panel can withstand a 70kg human.
At Airbound, we are not just building the best drones in the world. We are building the world’s most efficient aircraft to change the last-mile delivery experience. It’s a long road — no pun intended — but we are really excited by how far Airbound has come in just a year. As we finally come out of stealth, it gives us great pleasure to also welcome our co-investors @gradcapital, @dshglobal, together with founders and operators at @PixxelSpace and @boomsupersonic, and grants from @peterthiel backed @1517fund, & Mercatus-Emergent Venture.
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@sagharborcap Guess he did well for what he built. Ton of Finance bros and Tech nerds would and should be thankful to the guy. Khan Academy will be one for the history books.
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The saddest thing about all the AI stuff is that it’s rendered the Khan Academy guy’s life’s work totally obsolete
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@TMinchiata @AdamRFisher @BenjaminBadejo Right on most topics?? My brother, opinions presented post fact are almost always correct. Guess you haven’t followed Mr. Sacks long enough.
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@AdamRFisher @BenjaminBadejo I guess. Does that mean everybody who ever expressed an incorrect opinion is a charlatan? Kind of an absolutist take. People get it wrong sometimes. Hes right on most topics he engages with. He’s not a shill. So i disagree.
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I’ve met people like this throughout my life. They have an uncanny ability to sound informed and thoughtful, despite being ignorant and shallow. The skills of a charlatan. They start by providing investment or medical advice, then move into politics. We’re surrounded by them.
The Bulwark@BulwarkOnline
White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks: "Israel is getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before in their history. And we're only two weeks into this. If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed… And then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic"
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This is a smart strategy. Thanks to President Trump, the U.S. is energy independent. The countries that actually depend on Gulf oil should apply pressure to reopen the strait.
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Of course @DavidSacks talks about Trump like some bumbling, malleable vessel than can easily be manipulated into war. These cowards never blame Trump for anything he's always the victim of whatever is happening.
Tom Wright@thomaswright08
Jaw dropping comments on the Iran war by the Trump administration’s AI czar David Sacks earlier today on the All In podcast. Warns a faction is trying to get Trump to escalate in Iran, says it could render the Gulf uninhabitable and Israeli nuclear use. Calls for a negotiated settlement. Some quotes below. Link in next post. “we should try to find the off-ramp.” “This is a good time to declare victory and get out,” “You are seeing, however, a faction of people, I'd say largely but not exclusively in the Republican Party, who want to escalate the war.” “So if the Iranians get hit, if their oil and gas infrastructure gets hit, they've already said they're going to engage in tit-for-tat retaliation against the Gulf States. And we saw there was recently, the Iranians blew up this giant oil depot in Oman.” “Furthermore, there's an even worse, I think, scenario from there, which is the region is very dependent on desalination plants. I think something like 70% of Riyadh gets their water from desalination.” “I think it's something like 100 million people on the Arabian Peninsula that get their water from desal. I mean, it's basically a desert, right? And those desal plants are soft targets.” “If you see that type of destruction continue, you could literally render the Gulf almost uninhabitable.” “If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed” “Then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic.” “if escalation doesn't lead anywhere good, then you have to think about, well, how do you de-escalate? De-escalation, I think, involves reaching some sort of ceasefire agreement or some sort of negotiated settlement with Iran.”
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Great take. Common misunderstanding on how pervasive credit is in the system, no matter what (call it private credit, direct lending, syndicated). Stress in credit compounds problem not just for PE but for borrowers itself. Curious as to how much of leverage PE funds are carrying at fund level, subscription lines/NAV loans etc? This feedback loop can and will amplify stress. Illusion of senior secured and priority positions will disappear soon. PIK usage, BDC redemptions, increased LME (at least till last year) are canary in the coal mine testing the market.
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Think this is largely driven by two factors
> how private credit has positioned itself
> misunderstanding of the asset class
Private equity has been a long standing area within finance. There have been multiple books written about private equity deals and the space in general
People generally understand it as an illiquid investment vehicle where large institutional investors are able to contribute capital as an LP
The same is not true for private credit
While it has been around for some time, private credit really started hitting the headlines in 2022 when SOFR and rates went from 0 to 5% within the span of a few quarters
While private equity cash flows look like a massive year 1 outflow and then a pay back in 5 years, the same is not true in private credit
Private credit loans pay interest and amortization each year. The cash flows look more like a year 1 outflow, followed by annual interest inflows, and then a bullet maturity payback inflow in year 4 or 5
This allowed some firms to position private credit as liquid or semi-liquid, in the form of BDCs
This works when things are going well, redemptions are low and most of your companies are paying cash interest regularly
However, the music stops when redemptions start clearing above the cash flow in interest that you collect
While your loans might be fine, you have a timing mismatch problem where your payback period on a loan no longer aligns with redemptions
This is what is happening right now
People also generally freak out whenever they hear stress in “credit”
Call it memory or reflex, but credit related headlines tend to be almost automatically ring off alarms about the 2008 GFC in a lot of people’s minds
The reality is that compared to the CDOs during ‘08, private credit carries much more modest leverage
People should understand that most of private credit, which is direct lending, sits above a mountain of equity from the private equity firms
These are mostly first lien secured positions. Any impairment in the credit would only happen once all the equity has been wiped out
If you are worried about private credit impairment, you first have to believe that all of that equity will be a zero first
High Yield Harry@HighyieldHarry
I'm still scratching my head a bit at how the fintwit narrative is Private Credit is all going to zero but somehow Private Equity problems aren't getting mentioned at all.
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@elonmusk @SenSchumer Why does it have Transgender and women sports? This act is not a pure voter ID reform. If it was, it would be easy to pass. Restrict this ACT to pure play voter ID reform, strip it off the ancillary fluff and you’ll have the win. It’s as simple as that. Now go fight for that.
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Indeed, @SenSchumer, you are lying.
Zeek Arkham 🇺🇸@ZeekArkham
Dear Chuck Schumer, Hi. Black dude here. I can trace my family ancestry to slavery. I even know where they were slaves. My mom experienced Jim Crow. I think I’ve watched every episode of “Eyes On the Prize” when I was younger. With that said… Can you directly explain to me how the SAVE Act is “Jim Crow 2.0?” Literally every black person I know has ID. Literally every black person I know has a car or at least a ride. Literally every black person I know knows how to vote (well… except the ones with felonies… but they don’t count). With your advanced white liberal thinking, you must know more than me. Apparently, as I experience daily on this app, white liberals are experts on being black; even more so than actual black folks. Perhaps you could explain it like I’m five. I’d look it up on the internet, but Kathy Hochul has already told me I don’t know what a computer is and Joe Biden said I can’t navigate it, anyway. Looking forward to your answer. No hugs. Zeek
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> Balding SPAC king, now telling retail investors to fuck off forever after losing billions on his scams
> "Stay far away from every investment I make. Forever. I only want institutions, family offices, SWFs."
> After pumping SPACs to the moon in 2021, leaving retail bagholders with epic losses: SPCE down 95%, OPEN 98%, CLOV 90%, SOFI 45%, others in the dumpster
> Says he made people money by giving them capital losses, truly bizarre mindset
> Portfolio still bleeding, admits massive hits, pivots to private plays, but keeps preaching from the All-In podcast throne
> Skinny neck that looks like it would snap like a twig if he sneezed too hard
> "I'm in a much better place now" — yeah, personally, after divorce and killing the snake pit at Social Capital (blames co-founders for politics)
> From "democratizing access" hype to "retail should stay far away" gatekeeping classic move after torching retail bags
> Receding hairline, smug shit-eating grin, always one hot take away from a fresh grift
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
@nick_vladkis @troyhouse Then you generated capital losses. Did you use those yet??
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Whether you love it or hate it, the numbers don’t lie. If you don’t watch @theallinpod on the weekend, you will come to work on Monday missing what everyone is talking about.
I don’t make the rules.
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"One small step for Fury, one giant leap for Anduril.”
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Blue cities are out of control, promising more, spending more, delivering less and pushing off fiscal problems to some future day.
Democrats in city halls should stop governing as if the goal is to announce new entitlements, and instead make government work.
My take:
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BREAKING: Jessica Tarlov nukes Fox co-hosts' lies with receipts on Trump’s tariff defeat and how he’s doubled down on hurting Americans anyway.
Receipts don’t lie.
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@TheTennisLetter Carlos looks a bit rattled. Khachanov going toe to toe on his shots. Amazing.
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@micah_erfan @DanielDiMartino Additionally Property assessments have already gone up. Double whammy. Artificial capping of rent will be worse for the market and possibly, lead to a bubble.
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@micah_erfan @DanielDiMartino Typing gibberish and expecting to get away with it. Property tax hike = Rent increase. Whether it’s 1 to 1 increase or portion of it. Net net rent increases.
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67% of NYC residents don't own any property in the city.
The notion that this is a tax hike primarily on normal working New Yorkers is an absolute joke.
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital
>Sell morons on taxing the billionaires >Immediately raise property taxes on every middle-class family in New York
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