WaterDownEV
8.5K posts

WaterDownEV
@VanDaTank
sharp square or square sharp 🧐
Australia Se unió Şubat 2020
808 Siguiendo915 Seguidores

Baseball season starts tomorrow, and if you are looking for MLB projections that are second to none, you need to check out The BAT X from @DerekCarty and @EV_Analytics
Check out my pod from last week where Derek talks all about what goes into building his sophisticated model
🍎tinyurl.com/57ssyxh9
🎙️tinyurl.com/yc3bkpdz
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🚨 March Madness Bracket Challenge 🚨
Introducing the +EV Ohio March Madness Bracket Challenge. I figured we could make the NCAA Tournament a little more fun this year so I’m putting $100 on the line for whoever finishes in first place.
It’s free to enter using the link below. To be eligible for the prize you must be following and comment below the team you have winning it all. Also make sure your bracket name is your X username so I know who is who.
Most people would require a repost for something like this but I’d rather keep it inside our community. Looking forward to seeing if some of you are as sharp as advertised. Best of luck with your picks and enjoy the tournament!
I normally never do sponsorships but if you have something that fits and want to add to the prize pool then feel free to message me.
🔗 fantasy.espn.com/tc/sharer?chal…
You shouldn’t need it if using the link but the password is Ohio.
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So were clear - ALL "RULES" IN SPORTS BETTING HAVE REASONS AND EXAMPLES WHERE THEY SHOULD BE BROKEN.
Parlays are generally bad ➡️ but there are very much +EV parlays to be placed
Juiced alt lines are prob overpriced bets where you should play the standard line ➡️ I played SGA 20+ tonight -1600, first time I've done it this season.
Betting an hour before the game starts should generally be avoided, but there are definitely reasons to do it occasionally.
Michael Fiddle@FiddlesPicks
My #1 biggest piece of advice for betting is if the game starts within an hour DONT BET ON IT. Tweets like this generally just get responses and comments from people who disagree. Save your time. This is an opinion I have.
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@FiddlesPicks If you your bet gets clv, and the team you bet on plays much worse than the market implied they would then you got it in bad regardless of the CLV you got. There are other (often better) ways than CLV to evaluate if a bet was "good" or not.
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Here is how we instantly dispute anyone saying CLV doesnt matter
Last night I bet Miami Heat +142 (7:35PM ET at DraftKings)
Now I can choose to bet Houston Rockets ML -130 available in market (and even better on exchanges. there is a -127 on PolyMarket with over 100k liquidity).
I can instantly net a ~2.5% ROI on every dollar bet (including the Rockets bet, not just the Heat side) in an arbitrage.
I CAN MAKE MONEY BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTS SIMPLY BECAUSE I ACQUIRED CLV ON THE FIRST BET PLACED.
THE ONLY REASON THE ARB EXISTS, IS BECAUSE OF CLV
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Jacob Bridgeman wins The Genesis Invitational, his first PGA TOUR victory in 66th career start at the age 26 years, 2 months, 16 days.
Becomes 13th first-time winner in tournament history and first since 2015 (James Hahn).
Wins in his tournament debut, becoming the first player since 1975 (Pat Fitzsimons) to win in his first start at the event.
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@DegenFrog28 @PipsNBA @PicksOffice it's still wrong/misleading. going from -ev to -ev doesn't make them winners
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@PipsNBA @PicksOffice Vegas makes 4-6 times more profit off lays than they do straights (assuming equal wager amounts). He's just trying to warn people the dangers of betting lays with no EV edge. Might've been wrong wording but you got your panties in bunch over nothing
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Surprise, "picks office" account with 50k followers just said something incredibly stupid and wrong.
There is no chance an actual winning bettor could think this.
Betting straights and no parlays would make the average losing bettor lose less, yes, but they would still lose.
Picks Office@PicksOffice
99% of sports bettors would be profitable if they just stopped betting parlays. But they wont. And books know it.
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@DataBasedBets @repdinatitus @RepHorsford @RepMaxMiller @RepMcGovern Fuck whoever’s in charge. It’s actually crazy how those old pieces of shit are allowed to run our country
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The House Rules Committee has adjourned without voting on the common sense amendments by @repdinatitus @RepHorsford @RepMaxMiller to ensure no tax on phantom income
It appears @RepMcGovern was right. Today he called out the process: “this is not the way this place should be run”
DataBasedBets@DataBasedBets
Funny moment from @RepMcGovern (D-MA, Ranking Member of the House Rules Committee) on restoring 100% deductibility of gambling losses (up to the extent of winnings) “Your bipartisan amendment sounds like a no brainer, which probably means it won’t be made in order, I hope I’m wrong on that… it just seems to be common sense”
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@nolivergambles Im putting 1185 on both sides of a spread at -110 and taking that guaranteed 1k if this was me
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