Maciej Gorgol

@just_whatever @leonidvolkov @TheStudyofWar @bmilakovsky Good to see you too! Thanks for the links👌

@MaciejGorgol @leonidvolkov Hi Maciej, nice to see you on Twitter. Hmmm, I would suggest Meduza in English: meduza.io/en MediaZona in English too: en.zona.media Here on Twitter ISW @thestudyofwar threads have good analysis (though mostly war centric). Also Brian Milakowsky @bmilakovsky

Proof 101 that Kamil Galeev is a liar and a manipulator. He makes this point in the tweet below (screenshot for the blocked), claiming @leonidvolkov speaks on behalf of all Russia and embraces “homogenous space” when in reality Volkov says the opposite: he wants more diversity

@dylanleclair Check out @macroflaneur macroflaneur.substack.com/p/the-coordina…

Who’s the most underrated macro mind on twitter? I want to follow them.

@ohkf_hk Asia’s World Cargo City

Hong Kong International Airport (#HKIA) has won ‘#Airport of the Year 2022’ at the World Air Cargo Awards hosted by #AirCargoWeek!

@CoinSnacks @twobitidiot @coinmetrics On top of this we now have both supply and demand changing long term trend and putting upward pressure on the price twitter.com/MaciejGorgol/s…

In @twobitidiot's Crypto Thesis For 2022 he mentioned that the MVRV ratio from @coinmetrics is great indicator of when to buy and sell: "Whenever MVRV hits 3 tends to be a good time to take gains. (Sell a kidney or a newborn to buy when MVRV falls below 1)" We are now at .942

@SamoBurja In ten years cows will be grazing at the Grand-Place de Bruxelles

Reduction of European living standards was an expected outcome of this war unfortunately.

@TheRealPlanC Yes, and when the uptrend is under way the >1 year hodlers release supply slowly, while demand rushes in because of increased media coverage and fomo. This sustains the bull market I.e. the start of the bull market is supply driven, but it later becomes demand driven

@TheRealPlanC The uptrend should begin before the metric is maxed out You imply that when >1 year hodlers start selling the price goes up. But the causality is opposite: # of hodlers grows and supply dries up until it causes #bitcoin price to go up enough to induce marginal hodlers to sell

@RokoMijic Guess they didn’t get so big by not wanting more land

The Russians are the one country in the world that really doesn't have even the slightest rationally self-interested reason to want to expand its territory. As for human capital, peace and economic growth will help most with that, not war.

Some 🅉 supporters think that #Russia is going to militarily capture the whole of Novorossiya. According to @metaculus, that's almost certainly not going to happen by June.

@michaelxpettis Opposite might be true - John Cowperthwaite, author of Hong Kong post-war free market boom, fought and delayed production of gdp statistics to prevent interest groups making spending demands

"A World Bank paper found that producing and releasing regular, credible, statistics, can have a bigger positive impact on economic growth than opening trade or investing in education." link.medium.com/r3PWzc0Urnb

@ole_b_peters “Evitable: Science of avoiding ruin and growing over time”

As some of you know, I’m working on a book on ergodicity. Economics will be a theme but it’s a lot broader than just that. Problem: my publisher wants a title by tomorrow. Help! If you were browsing a bookstore, which book would you pick up?

@balajis twitter.com/maciejgorgol/s…

@balajis Number of joules of output consumed, rather than produced. Civilisation that produces 10x joules but wastes 95% on solving coordination problems / bad Nash equilibria is far less impressive than 1x on productive output

Money isn’t a good measure of civilizational progress because dollars aren’t comparable across space and time. The number of joules produced per human over their lifetime might be better; a personal Kardashev scale? In industrialized societies, we’re all joule multibillionaires.

9/ As production technology improves the production economy shrinks as part of the global economy, and resources shift to the coordination economy

8/ If incentives of all agents were aligned the economic output would be maximised. No need of law, police, companies, etc. - just production and consumption. Since the incentives are not aligned, the coordination economy must consume resources