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PredMarkets
54 posts
PredMarkets
@PredMarketsCom
The home of 5 minute crypto prediction markets on @avax
가입일 Mart 2026
83 팔로잉45 팔로워
@Autonomous_Chad Come test out PredMarkets for 5 minute crypto markets. Cheaper, better incentives, and more decentralized
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UPDATE : Polymarket changed it's fee fromula over night ⚠️
Now it's not bonders that are screwed but risk takers
Especially in the Economics category where fees reach *94%* (ninety-four) for 0.1c buys
formula went from :
fee = C × p x feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent
to :
fee = C × feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent
And clearly polymarket didn't think of plotting the fee curves before going live because this is absolutely insane.
This is because the exponent for Weather and Economics is 0.5 instead of 1 for other markets, so the curve behaves very differently at the extremes.
This is more than likely and oversight and will be reverse soon, but damn that was an insane thing to let through even by mistake
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad
New Polymarkets fees are a HUGE nerf to bonding 📉 the fee rate drop off as you approach 99c, but not as fast as your profit margin Before the fees ✅ You buy $100 worth of bonds at 99c on an Economics market 100 / 0.99 = 101.01 shares profit for $100 invested = $1.01 After the fees ❌ You buy $100 worth of bonds at 99c on an Economics market Fee rate on Economics category at 99c = 0.3% profit for $100 invested = $1.01 - $0.3030 = $0.7070 That means fees alone cut your bonding profit by 30% !!! Fees are the highest on Economics markets but others are hurt hard too. Crypto: Effective rate at 99c= 0.07% bond profit loss = 7.0% Politics / Finance / Tech: Effective rate at 99c = 0.04% bond profit loss = 4.0% Weather: Effective rate at 99c = ~$0.25% bond profit loss = 25.0% !!! These are huge nerfs for a strategy that already relies on small margins. Traders will have to take more risks. Expect to see some old time whales decline, only the best will survive
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The fee model has been reworked, making the chart I shared outdated. The new fees are now closer to Kalshi
I'll share a detailed overview and stats once the fees are finalized. Currently, the $94.82 fee on a $100 market buy at 0.1ct in Economics markets is hard to take seriously
25usdc@25usdc
Polymarket soon charges fees Understanding how they work is key to trading profitably Fees apply only to takers, while makers earn 20%+ rebates. Geopolitics and global event markets remain fee-free Here is a comparison across categories, including Kalshi (different fee curve)
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@martynov014 Try out our markets! Less fees and better trading terminal
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i made +$98 profit in a few minutes
> bought at 51c
> sold at 57-66c
Valentin@martynov014
15 minute market + fireplace = printing money every day today i earn $170 in a few minutes, but how? - bought 1,393 shares at 52c - sold 423 shares at 59c - sold 693 shares at 58c - sold 277 shares at 73c tomorrow i have open order 1000 shares at 51c p.s. today was risky predict, because market graph is unstable, but we won it
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CONTROVERSIAL OPINION : The new Polymarket fees are actually amazing and a giga brain move
94% fee is not that high all things considered and it still lets the buy the change to do a very respectable 5x (who needs more money really ??)
Beside Polymarket needs to pay for it's cost somehow, this only natural
Here is why they are good🔽
... no just kidding they are complete trash lmao !
BUT i do enjoy seeing sportsball and Econooomics cattle suffer under them while we, Geopolitical Chads pay 0% (zero percent) fees.
So in this way they are amazing
It's only natural that sportspall and crypto untouchables sponsors the gambling habits of high caste geopolitical trader.
We get to study an interesting subject AND pay 0 fees, because life is unfair like that
"the Chuds will inherit the earth" - Matthew 5:5
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@Big_Cokes1 We got people. No worries. We will set up a discord today.
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@PredMarketsCom Yes, let’s do that or a telegram, can set that up…
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Today Polymarket increased their fees and not by a small margin. Some users are paying 10x what they used to.
PredMarkets is currently offering lower fees and greater incentives for providing liquidity. Not only that, it's more decentralized.
Try PredMarkets right now! What are you waiting for?
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@Nik_Poly @mustafap0ly Come to PredMarkets. We care about our users.
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What the hell did Polymarket just do?
Fees are now up to 7% for certain prices. Senior intern @mustafap0ly seems to be confirming that the change is intended.
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@PredMarketsCom Yhyh
Btw, coming up with a community soon? Where users can give feedback and interact with each other.
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@0xinternetchild Currently, we're offering short crypto markets.
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@PredMarketsCom it's good to see competitions. do you do Ukraine war territorial markets ?
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@securezer0 They're the same thing. High fees and owned by hedge funds
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@securezer0 Yeah just come trade with us. Much better user journey.
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$3,343 Lifetime PNL - $2,014 3 Month Est. Fees
This fee equation will fundamentally change how predictors interact with Polymarket
It cant be the case that no one at Polymarket modeled users backdated trade history against the new fee rate
Wallet profitability is about to fall to < 1%
*estimate fees as trade API is restricted to 3100 trades & market categories are not accurately defined anywhere.
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@PredMarketsCom Oh, 5 minutes sounds great and free money for a good analyst :)
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@0x_Discover Imagine how much you could make on a platform with much lower fees and better liquidity incentives
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Told Claude I had $1,000 and one week.
No plan. No safety net. Just one question:
“Where does this money actually work?”
I expected the usual answers — index funds, savings accounts, maybe stocks.
Instead, Claude said something completely different:
Find bots that buy event contracts priced under 3 cents.
Deploy small amounts across hundreds of outcomes.
Let probability do the rest.
Copytrade → t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
Then it added:
“Someone is already doing this. Look up planktonXD.”
So I did.
planktonXD — $95,502 in profit.
Started with just over $1,000.
Bio: having fun.
No hype. Just execution.
One trade:
$15 on “zero earthquakes worldwide”
→ payout: $1,330
→ ROI: 8,742%
Total activity:
77,000+ bets
$5–$25 each
Most go to zero.
But the ones that hit?
They don’t just win — they explode.
Claude broke it down simply:
Bet on 100 events at 1 cent.
99 lose.
1 hits → you break even.
2 hit → you profit.
3 hit → it scales fast.
It’s not about being right often.
It’s about being positioned when rare events misprice.
planktonXD didn’t win by predicting better.
They won by playing a game where the payoff curve is asymmetric.
I asked Claude:
“Should I copy this?”
It replied:
“I can’t give financial advice. But inefficiencies exist when markets consistently misprice low-probability outcomes.”
That night, I tested it.
Put in $100.
Spread across 9 events under 1 cent.
Went to sleep.
Woke up — one hit.
$100 → $580.
That’s when it clicked:
I wasn’t asking for trades.
I was asking where small capital has the highest leverage.
And the answer wasn’t obvious — until I saw someone already doing it at scale.
77,000+ bets later, the bot is still running.
The bio still says: having fun.
I asked Claude one last thing:
“What would you call this strategy?”
It said:
“Buying lottery tickets… where the math is on your side.”
Discover@0x_Discover
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@Patrick_DefiGuy While you're waiting for X to work, place some 5 minute predictions!
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@datadashboards Try us instead. No crazy formulas. Cheaper fees, better incentives, better trading terminal.
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Seems like they silently changed the formula in the docs.
Went from:
fee = C × p × feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent
to:
fee = C × feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent
dash@datadashboards
Polymarket has earned around $600K in fees today! They seem to be charging up to 10% fees on some trades right now which is far above the docs they put out last week. Volumes dropped from $324M to $270M (-17%) yesterday (the first day with fees). Today has been $195M so far.
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@datadashboards Come try a better product with less fees and better incentives for market makers! Try PredMarkets right now
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Polymarket has earned around $600K in fees today!
They seem to be charging up to 10% fees on some trades right now which is far above the docs they put out last week.
Volumes dropped from $324M to $270M (-17%) yesterday (the first day with fees). Today has been $195M so far.
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@Frosen yeah it's time to give PredMarkets a shot. Our fees are astronimically cheaper
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@hanakoxbt You should build one for PredMarkets too! Could make more as there are less fees
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my Claude built a Liquidity Sniper terminal that eats market overreactions
+$3,082 while I was asleep. thin books, fat profits
251 snipes across 500 markets in under two hours
every one triggered by low liquidity and a price that overshot too far
the logic: when liquidity is low, prices overshoot. when prices overshoot, they revert. the bot sits and waits for exactly that moment.
Hurricane FL - everyone panic-sold when the forecast dropped. book went thin. bot entered at $0.35. reverted to $0.42 in 11 minutes. +$287.
Trump OH - breaking news spike. price shot up on emotion. bot caught the overreaction. entry $0.59. reverted. +$194.
Senate bill - market moved on a rumor. zero liquidity on the ask side. bot sniped at $8.45. reverted 112%. +$371.
avg revert time: 17 minutes. bot enters, waits, exits. nothing else.
the spike feed doesn't stop:
mech Miami flood +15.5% - SNIPE
info Dogecoin +7.9% - SKIP
mech eth>5k Q2 +5.8% - SNIPE
SKIP means liquidity is fine. SNIPE means the book is thin and the price is wrong.
> markets scanned: 500
> scan rate: 30sec
> win rate: 88.8%
> active snipes: 251
P&L curve - no dips. just stairs going up.
bot doesn't predict events. it reads liquidity. when it's thin - it strikes.
copytrade: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116
the market overreacts. this bot is already there waiting.
Hanako@hanakoxbt
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