Shifting Sands Report

609 posts

Shifting Sands Report

Shifting Sands Report

@SandsReport

Geopolitics | Trade | Energy | Macroeconomics | Historical echoes in a changing world order

가입일 Mart 2025
256 팔로잉30 팔로워
Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@MarioNawfal I’d bet my money on the side that has consistently been telling the truth and won the war according to every metric.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. just pushed back on Iran's Hormuz claim CENTCOM told Al Jazeera Arabic straight up: Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. And they're not just saying it for show. U.S. forces are keeping a close eye on things to make sure ships can keep moving through like normal. It comes right after Iran's Revolutionary Guard had said the strait was shut, blaming it on Israel's attacks down in southern Lebanon. So now you've got two militaries telling totally different stories about the same patch of water, and both of them can't be right. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniyal
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷 This is the IRGC Navy broadcasting on radio the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "Due to the crimes of Israel in Lebanon and the violation of the U.S. commitment regarding the ceasefire." Source: DD Geopolitics on Telegram / Writer: Oliver

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Perhaps. But it's not Iran or the US who decide that the strait is open--it's shipping and insurance companies. Since Wednesday the number of vessels moving through (esp. on the southern route, which JMIC has recommended) has increased. Will the Iranian announcement be enough to deter them? Or will Iran need to resort to force and directly violate the MOU's terms?
Jason Brodsky@JasonMBrodsky

"A senior U.S. defense official said the U.S. military is still not seeing any Iranian military movements on the ground that reflect a potential "closing' of the strait." It doesn't matter. Just the announcement itself is sufficient to deter use of the Strait of Hormuz. axios.com/2026/06/20/ira…

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Shifting Sands Report 리트윗함
Sulaiman Ahmed
Sulaiman Ahmed@ShaykhSulaiman·
BREAKING: IRAN HAS CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CITING US VIOLATION OF MOU & ISRAEL’S CONTINUED BOMBING OF LEBANON: Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters Central Command: “Due to the United States' explicit breach of its promises and its violation of the agreement regarding the non-implementation of the first clause of the war termination understanding, and in response to the continuous and ongoing violations of the ceasefire by the entity in southern Lebanon, which resulted in the brutal killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from this oppressed country, as well as due to the failure of the occupation forces to withdraw from the lands of southern Lebanon, we announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic and maritime navigation. We affirm that this is the first step in responding to the enemy's breach of its commitments, and if the aggressions continue, additional steps will be planned and implemented to force the enemy to abide by and fulfill its pledges.”
Sulaiman Ahmed tweet mediaSulaiman Ahmed tweet media
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@MalcolmNance @SecWar Sad thing is that after starting the war, the long term damage became fated. This surrender will just lead to a slow bleed. US leaves the ME➡️erosion of petro$+loss of global primacy➡️ GCC capital stops flowing to US➡️ AI bubble burst+further erosion of reserve currency status.
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Malcolm Nance
Malcolm Nance@MalcolmNance·
The lesson some Trump supporters fail to learn … you cannot bomb your way to peace if bombing was your only goal. Trump lost this war & ended it bc the world economy was going to collapse. His incompetent @SecWar never planned to keep the Strait of Hormuz open & protect global trade. He had no strategy except kill & pray Iran would collapse. Iran now controls 20% of the world’s energy flow. Trump had to fold. That’s the reason we lost.
Matt Tardio@angertab

A message to President Trump from a veteran and one of his voters. Listen until the end, share if you agree.

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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@aeberman12 @Glenn_Diesen The reasoning for the scenario of buying time could be: can the US afford to lose global primacy in such an humiliating manner, during the worst time imaginable. Meaning the emergence of a multipolar world order, erosion of the US’s reserve currency status, rise of China etc.
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Art Berman
Art Berman@aeberman12·
The "buying time" thesis sounds clever @Glenn_Diesen But buying time for what? Wars don't usually stop so both sides can rest & fight again What if it is exactly what it looks like? What a concept!
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Iran deal may be a surrender in disguise, built to buy time before the next war... Glenn Diesen isn't convinced the memorandum of understanding ever gets implemented in full. His suspicion is that Washington is mostly buying time. His reasoning is pointed. Since Trump has openly admitted to a serious fuel shortage, Glenn reads the agreement as essentially a surrender, designed to ease pressure on oil prices and let the US replenish its strategic reserves. From there, he expects Washington could stretch the process out before circling back to military conflict, especially since he sees little real appetite in the US for actually coexisting with Iran. @Glenn_Diesen

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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@aeberman12 Exactly, the winners of war are usually the side that’s most able/willing to tolerate pain. Adding to that Iran’s masterclass at asymmetrical warfare and making it a war of attrition. As well as Trump constantly showing his hand, flailing and flip flopping.
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Art Berman
Art Berman@aeberman12·
Trump now warns that military action against Iran could disrupt Hormuz That was true in March It was true in April It was true in May What's different now? Iran stayed the course. The US blinked The technical term for that is defeat
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

TRUMP WARNS STRIKES ON IRAN COULD THREATEN OIL FLOWS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRUMP: ATTACKING IRAN RISKS DISRUPTING GLOBAL OIL SHIPMENTS TRUMP HIGHLIGHTS STRAIT OF HORMUZ RISK IN DISCUSSION OF IRAN MILITARY ACTION TRUMP: SHIPOWNERS DON’T WANT MISSILES FLYING OVER $1 BILLION VESSELS

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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@cperk611 @clashreport Those metrics of victory doesn’t matter when your enemy emerges as the regional hegemon, kicks the US out of the region, controls over 20% of the worlds energy, makes you pay 400+ billion USD, destroys US credibility, US loses global primacy, Iran emerges as the 4th global power.
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cperk611
cperk611@cperk611·
@SandsReport @clashreport No airforce, no navy, no nuclear, most of their leaders are dead, we're not fighting Israel's wars anymore, and we're not getting in a war that never ends
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Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
Trump on Iran: If I were hitting them right now, if we're not going to put boots on the ground, and you don't want boots on the ground, right? If we're not going to put boots on the ground, probably the same people go deep into the caves. They're called granite caves. They're very powerful. They go deep, and then when we stop, they'll come up, and they'll probably be the same leaders. We would right now have the Strait of Hormuz totally closed. It would have mines all over it, and it would have missiles flying over billion-dollar ships. Those ships would never sail. We wouldn't have oil for months. Source: Axios
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Harrison H. Smith ✞
Harrison H. Smith ✞@HarrisonHSmith·
What has changed? Trump just admitted that Iran will not be defeated through bombing alone, and that they can shut the Strait of Hormuz at will. But that’s been true the entire time, so why is he only now acknowledging it?
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@Jackerofmeat @BrettErickson28 Sand people? Iran isn’t Saudi Arabia. Go watch a youtube vid… btw if the US did that, Iran would burn the whole region including oil&gas + US bases. Guaranteeing a world depression, collapse of the petrodollar and erosion of the US reserve currency status.
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Kyle
Kyle@Jackerofmeat·
@BrettErickson28 Destroy everything and go home. Let the sand people figure it out. Power, oil, gas, every factory, everything. 6 carriers, 75% of the airforce and just level the place. Thats how they can over play their hand.
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Brett Erickson
Brett Erickson@BrettErickson28·
It’s curious to me to see people claiming Iran is now “overplaying their hand”… What’s the downside? Returning to the dueling blockade benefits Iran. More bombing is worthless. Operation Freedom 2 was downright dangerous and foolish. Unless the U.S. is planning to put boots on the ground, which we have made abundantly clear there is zero political will for whatsoever… How CAN Iran overplay their hand?
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@BrettErickson28 Trump has to be the worst war strategist ever. Showing his hand at every turn, it’s literally jawdropping. Recently he made it abundantly clear that the world is running out of oil, heading to a depression, US is unwilling to continue fighting etc. He’s just handing Iran the wins
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Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen@Glenn_Diesen·
Zelensky threatens to widen the war by attacking Belarus.
Glenn Diesen tweet media
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Lord Bebo
Lord Bebo@MyLordBebo·
🇺🇸 Yup, Trump just posted... whatever this is
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
Pre-war status in the strait of Hormuz? Forget about it…
GIF
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Iran has declared that ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, setting the stage for future tolling arrangements by saying it could introduce “insurance fees," per Bloomberg. Details include: 1. All vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz will have to secure a mandatory insurance policy 2. This policy is currently free for the next 60 days but could involve charges in the future 3. Iran also said ships must follow its prescribed route and that alternatives are prohibited The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term. It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.

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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@WeTheBrandon You were right Weichert. It’s likely a new forever war. Iran won’t let the US Symbolically seperate from their proxy Israel. So unless Israel retreats from Lebanon altogether, the MOU is dead on arrival, Israel’s retreat would be a catastrofic defeat in the region’s eyes.
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
@WarMonitor3 It’s another proof of Trump being a pathological liar. Because why lie about something that on the face of it has no validity or credibility. Why would a head of state beg for a photo? He constantly talks shit just to fill the empty air…
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WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧@WarMonitor3·
Italian PM Meloni has accused Trump of making up a story that she begged him for a photo in the G7 and said she was astounded by the comments to Italian media.
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
Breaking: The global humiliation’s already pressuring Trump to show his hand today. Trump’s indirectly admitting his intention could be to play out the 60 days to push down energy prices and recuperate while Tehran gets nothing that’s promised in the MOU.
Shifting Sands Report tweet media
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Shifting Sands Report
Shifting Sands Report@SandsReport·
In my opinion, if Israel doesn’t retreat from their established "security zone" in Lebanon. There will only be a fraction of traffic going back into the gulf. Due to the uncertainty of clashes in Lebanon leading to closure of Hormuz. Not a big reaction from oil traders though…
Sulaiman Ahmed@ShaykhSulaiman

BREAKING: IRAN CLOSES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ “Since Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, the complete lifting of the naval blockade, and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these conditions are met. All ships are requested, for the sake of their security and safety, not to approach the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel that defies this directive will be targeted.”

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탐색

@MarioNawfal @gbrew24 @MalcolmNance @SecWar @aeberman12 @Glenn_Diesen @cperk611 @clashreport