@MeanwhileScotia @MattyBall93 full February dataset is not yet available but core measures including PTV are in the latest Scoop tracker here (format is Stata .dta file)
github.com/ScottishElectiโฆ
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Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ
401 posts
Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ
@ScotVoting
An ESRC-funded academic study of voting in Scotland Team @ailsa_henderson @RobJohns75 @cjcarman @jaclarner @frasmcm @eichhorn_jan
Scotland ๊ฐ์
์ผ Ekim 2016
398 ํ๋ก์1.5K ํ๋ก์
@ScotVoting @MattyBall93 Is this data available - propensity to vote for... by vote intent - or will it be soon?
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This Holyrood voting intention has the Greens on 11% of the constituency vote - which will be impossible given they will only stand in a handful of seats.
SNP constituency vote therefore likely being underestimated by at least a 2-3% I think.
Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ@ScotVoting
๐จ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ FINAL SCOOP POLL BEFORE MAY IS OUT Crosstabs here: scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/uplโฆ Trends since 2021 with our final numbers ๐๐ป More on our Public Opinion Dashboard: scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
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@ammacj @mcmotors23 @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia appreciate it ๐๐ณ๏ธ
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@ScotVoting @mcmotors23 @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia Yes, in my post I gave a footnote in that, and said projections were from DevolvedElections.
Your work is excellent, by the way.
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Holyrood poll YouGov / @ScotVoting Feb 11-18๐
Const/List %:
34/28 SNP
18/19 Reform
14/14 Lab
11/16 Green
10/10 Tory
10/10 LD
2/2 Other
0/1 Alba
Seats (via DevolvedElections)
*57 SNP
23 Reform
15 Lab
*16 Green
9 Tory
9 LD
* Greens in only 12 consts so SNP likely higher.
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@mcmotors23 @ammacj @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia the Scottish Greens mathematically cannot get 11% since they're running in so few constituencies now, but that was announced right before we signed off on the questionnaire
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@mcmotors23 @ammacj @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia hiya, we're an independent academic project
the seat projections are not our own, they're extrapolations from our data
we offered Scottish Green constituency vote option to all respondents since this is the way we've run vote intention in every survey since 2021
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@MikePicken57 @TamTomney66078 @LeftieStats @indy_swim @scottishgreens @UKLabour @AnasSarwar it's reported now ;)
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@TamTomney66078 @LeftieStats @indy_swim Yesterday's largely unreported YouGov poll for Scottish Election Study had @scottishgreens 16% for List vote, compared to 14% for @UKLabour. @AnasSarwar strategy of calling for Starmer to go after describing Mandelson as "my friend" is clearly not going to work, his days numbered
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โผ๏ธ BREAKING: Greens WIN Gorton and Denton by-election in a landslide victory
๐ข Grn: 41% (+27)
โก๏ธ Ref: 29% (+15)
๐ด Lab: 25% (-25)
๐ต Con: 2% (-6)
๐ Lib: 2% (-2)
Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024)
โผ๏ธFirst-ever Green win in an MP by-election
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๐จ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ FINAL SCOOP POLL BEFORE MAY IS OUT
Crosstabs here: scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/uplโฆ
Trends since 2021 with our final numbers ๐๐ป
More on our Public Opinion Dashboard: scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
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Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ ๋ฆฌํธ์ํจ
NEW -
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/43isU58
- @Jaclarner, Robert Johns, @Ailsa_Henderson, @frasmcm & @cjcarman
#OpenAccess
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New blog on indyref mandate ๐ณ๏ธ
By our PI @ailsa_henderson, this blog investigates attitudes to #indyref2 timing and whether there is a middle ground on the "mandate" question ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ฌ๐ง
Particularly relevant given @ScotGovFM has set out @theSNP's stall
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/09/03/is-โฆ
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Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ ๋ฆฌํธ์ํจ
Thank you Climate Action Secretary @GillianMSP for speaking to 40+ SCCS members ahead of the new Climate Change Plan, and speakers @talatyaqoob, Anki Deo @hopenothate, @frasmcm @ScotVoting for sharing insights ahead of the 2026 election. Lots to think about as we plan campaigns!
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Finally, while the salience of indy continues to fall, constitutional views remain closely divided and seemingly won't budge ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟโ๏ธ๐ฌ๐ง
Views are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @UKLabour govt. in London ๐
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๐ฆBig Scoop tracker update ๐
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ง๐ฝโ๐คโ๐ง๐ป
Summary ๐งต
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
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As Trump jets over to Scotland, take a look at @cjcarman's excellent blog on Scottish attitudes the mercurial US President ๐๐ป
Scottish Election Study ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ณ๏ธ@ScotVoting
๐บ๐ธ New blog! ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ @cjcarman takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit. How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below! scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/truโฆ
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๐บ๐ธ New blog! ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
@cjcarman takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit.
How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below!
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/truโฆ
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Essay Prize 2025 ๐
๐ง๐ปโ๐ Undergraduate and school pupil competitions
๐ Deadline 6th July
Fantastic judging panel of @simeonkerr, @YouGov's Abigail Axe-Browne and @AlanConvery!
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/06/09/essโฆ
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