Scottish Election Study 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🗳️

🚨 SES Annual Lecture 2026 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Prof. Richard Wyn Jones 🥀 The Decline and Fall of Welsh Labour 🕗 6PM, 23rd of May 📍 Usha Kasera Lecture Theatre, University of Edinburgh Sign up edin.ac/4mHfPKZ

In this week's blog, @cjcarman discusses our data on Scottish voter awareness and concern surrounding the digital information environment 📱🗞️ Are Scots worried about fake news? Find out below on our well-trusted blog ⤵️ scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/30/fak…

@frasmcm Highlights 🔦 - Folk are quite pessimistic about the state of the country - The SNP's core support base is losing faith - But the party's continued dominance of that camp is boosting their chances - Independence attitudes remain strongly polarised by age cohort

New blog 📰🗳️ What's the mood of the country going into the election? Which issues do voters have in mind? Why are the SNP still favourites to win? And what about independence? @frasmcm's new long read reviews trends in public opinion since 2021 🍦 scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/16/fit…

Four weeks to go! 🗳️ We'll be publishing analysis on our blog every Thurs + Tues, looking at data beyond the immediate horse-race 🏇📊 First up, @cjcarman on what Scots think about changes to voting rights in recent years! scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/exp…

@MeanwhileScotia @MattyBall93 full February dataset is not yet available but core measures including PTV are in the latest Scoop tracker here (format is Stata .dta file) github.com/ScottishElecti…

@ScotVoting @MattyBall93 Is this data available - propensity to vote for... by vote intent - or will it be soon?

This Holyrood voting intention has the Greens on 11% of the constituency vote - which will be impossible given they will only stand in a handful of seats. SNP constituency vote therefore likely being underestimated by at least a 2-3% I think.

@ammacj @mcmotors23 @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia appreciate it 😇🗳️

@ScotVoting @mcmotors23 @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia Yes, in my post I gave a footnote in that, and said projections were from DevolvedElections. Your work is excellent, by the way.

Holyrood poll YouGov / @ScotVoting Feb 11-18👇 Const/List %: 34/28 SNP 18/19 Reform 14/14 Lab 11/16 Green 10/10 Tory 10/10 LD 2/2 Other 0/1 Alba Seats (via DevolvedElections) *57 SNP 23 Reform 15 Lab *16 Green 9 Tory 9 LD * Greens in only 12 consts so SNP likely higher.

@mcmotors23 @ammacj @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia the Scottish Greens mathematically cannot get 11% since they're running in so few constituencies now, but that was announced right before we signed off on the questionnaire

@mcmotors23 @ammacj @JamesKelly @BritainElects @ElectionMapsUK @LeftieStats @bellacaledonia hiya, we're an independent academic project the seat projections are not our own, they're extrapolations from our data we offered Scottish Green constituency vote option to all respondents since this is the way we've run vote intention in every survey since 2021

@MikePicken57 @TamTomney66078 @LeftieStats @indy_swim @scottishgreens @UKLabour @AnasSarwar it's reported now ;)

@TamTomney66078 @LeftieStats @indy_swim Yesterday's largely unreported YouGov poll for Scottish Election Study had @scottishgreens 16% for List vote, compared to 14% for @UKLabour. @AnasSarwar strategy of calling for Starmer to go after describing Mandelson as "my friend" is clearly not going to work, his days numbered

‼️ BREAKING: Greens WIN Gorton and Denton by-election in a landslide victory 🟢 Grn: 41% (+27) ➡️ Ref: 29% (+15) 🔴 Lab: 25% (-25) 🔵 Con: 2% (-6) 🟠 Lib: 2% (-2) Green GAIN from Labour (+/- vs GE2024) ‼️First-ever Green win in an MP by-election

🚨🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 FINAL SCOOP POLL BEFORE MAY IS OUT Crosstabs here: scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… Trends since 2021 with our final numbers 👇🏻 More on our Public Opinion Dashboard: scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/

NEW - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/43isU58 - @Jaclarner, Robert Johns, @Ailsa_Henderson, @frasmcm & @cjcarman #OpenAccess

New blog on indyref mandate 🗳️ By our PI @ailsa_henderson, this blog investigates attitudes to #indyref2 timing and whether there is a middle ground on the "mandate" question 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇧 Particularly relevant given @ScotGovFM has set out @theSNP's stall scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/09/03/is-…

Thank you Climate Action Secretary @GillianMSP for speaking to 40+ SCCS members ahead of the new Climate Change Plan, and speakers @talatyaqoob, Anki Deo @hopenothate, @frasmcm @ScotVoting for sharing insights ahead of the 2026 election. Lots to think about as we plan campaigns!

Might be of interest @RachelAmery @mrdavidbol @LeaskyHT @BallotBoxScot @conor_matchett @holyroodmandy @justinbowie1997 @alexmassie @HolyroodSources @PonsonbyMassie @adamtomforrest @akmaciver @OfficialSYP @SPICe_Research @SPRExchange @ScotFutures @gillcruicky @BlairJenkinsYes

Finally, while the salience of indy continues to fall, constitutional views remain closely divided and seemingly won't budge 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿⚖️🇬🇧 Views are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @UKLabour govt. in London 👀

🍦Big Scoop tracker update 📊 We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find. And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🧑🏽‍🤝‍🧑🏻 Summary 🧵 scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/