Talophex
4.4K posts
Talophex
@Talophex
Surgeon General of prediction market Twitter. Too liberal for the Deep South, too conservative for the PNW.
Seattle, WA 가입일 Eylül 2011
392 팔로잉885 팔로워
I am not sure the people in the prediction markets bubble realize how unhinged and disconnected they are from the rest of us. With a few exceptions.
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@Polymarket When did they get upgraded from fifth-world? Not totally sure they deserved it.
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JUST IN: Trump calls Somalia a "fourth-world" nation.
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@Slamma5284 @LoganARobison Most businesses these days have gotten rid of any way to contact them apart from spending hours on the phone with an AI that can’t possibly solve the issue, losing these disputes is the logical consequence of that choice
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I’ve won disputes with customers, but they are such a hassle.
E-commerce - 99 out of 100 times a chargeback claim is filed, the customer never contacts us about any issue prior to filing their claim against us.
There should be a law where the customer is required to contact business prior to filing a chargeback.
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A customer disputed our credit card charge 1 month after leaving a 5-star review.. and won
I uploaded the 5-star review and a transcript of the phone call where she was happy and booked again. The bank still sided with the customer
How is this possible?
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Nevada sues Kalshi in state court. Kalshi removes case to federal court. Judge remands case back to state court. Kalshi requests and receives stay, so federal judge recalls case from state court. Now Kalshi appeals to Ninth Circuit remanding of case back to state court.
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the implication that an insider would willingly detonate a nuclear device to win 100k is one of the most retarded things i have ever read
David Sirota@davidsirota
Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions.
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@HasturYLK @DustinGouker Jesus won’t return but a nuclear weapon might go off, but I really hope you already knew that
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@DustinGouker What's the difference between these markets and one on Jesus returning?
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Polymarket took down a market about nuclear weapon detonations yesterday.
Everything's going great in the prediction markets industry right now, thanks for asking. nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/polymarket-t…
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Wait someone thought “we don’t pay out death markets” was a longstanding and consistent policy? I’m pretty sure there are more examples of this I could dig up later.
Nick Devor@nickdevor_
This is true — Kalshi’s “Who will be at Trump’s inauguration?” market had Jimmy Carter as a strike. Odds that Carter would attend the inauguration dropped when he died and the strike resolved to NO.
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@Rod240719 @WombRaider64 @RealEmirHan I always felt like the REAL wow moment was finding out it wasn’t the 1800s, although it definitely could have had a better reveal
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The Village (2004) is just the definition of disappointment.
Imagine a movie that builds up its monster reveal and mythos beautifully, full of tension, only to find out there was no monster and it’s fabrication by elders to keep young people from leaving
Emir Han@RealEmirHan
Name the worst movie you’ve ever watched.
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@polskaexplorer @GaltGiovani @HarrisonKrank You have no idea what you’re talking about, they sell so many Mercedes in Alabama that the head coach of the football team famously owned his own dealership. Yes the tax structure of the state favors manufacturing, also many of those engineers are local and making great money
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@Talophex @GaltGiovani @HarrisonKrank That plant is there because pay is lower in Alabama. Those Mercedes are getting shipped all over the world; they aren't there for the Alabama residents, lol.
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Half of Canadians live south of this line but all Canadians live in a country poorer than Alabama.
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@GaltGiovani @HarrisonKrank Please tell me you know we have 2 million dollar homes in Alabama… there’s also literally a Mercedes plant just outside Birmingham, if that’s some kind of flex you Canadians are even poorer than we thought.
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@HarrisonKrank I live in a fully paid for 2 million dollar home and my neighborhood is full of luxury german cars. I'm not feeling jealous of fucking Alabama
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@BryceLottos Yeah someone else pointed that out, silly me for assuming the *checks notes* Wall Street Journal didn’t look as part of their background research for this article
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He wont even ballpark for the wall street journal how much he makes from this but he does admit he lives in a one bedroom in Philly? Non-zero chance he’s in the red overall.
Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS
“You get very numb to these kinds of numbers,” said the 25-year-old prediction markets trader who bet big on the Super Bowl, and lost $100,000 He left college early, now makes markets for Kalshi from his one-bedroom apt in Philly Love this story by @KevinTDugan @WSJmarkets wsj.com/business/media…
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@Pete_Monahan_JD @DustinGouker @GaetenD If the search function on this hell-hole worked I could dig up ten different times something went off the rails with Kalshi and Tarek was either ignorant of the situation (it’s your company bro) or confidently wrong until corrected by other employees, this is an ongoing problem
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@DustinGouker @GaetenD I kinda like Tarek, so to some extent I blame others for not preparing him, but maybe that's being too nice. Like, where is his general counsel? He/she should have prepared him. I know the prior GC was a moron, but come on...
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Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour went on CNBC and had to spend half the interview talking about potential insider trading on the Bad Bunny halftime show, I am crying man. 😭
cnbc.com/video/2026/02/…
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@mikeMaher @DustinGouker No, not like that at all, trading was functional as far as I could tell the whole game, did I miss something?
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@Talophex @DustinGouker Kind of like a new AI website got so much traffic it crashed even though not many people actually signed up for it?
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This math isn't mathing.
-Kalshi founder says they far surpassed a projection of 10x their peak traffic on Super Bowl Sunday.
-Trading volume on Sunday was not even double the biggest day in Kalshi history.
Unless that many people weren't able to deposit/trade?
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@mikeMaher @DustinGouker Go look at a graph of bet size and volume for sports on a typical day for Kalshi or Polymarket, now pull out Excel and build a new curve of what would have to happen for them to have greater than 10x the traffic but only 1.5x the trade volume, that is just not what happened here
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@DustinGouker @mikeMaher Yeah the argument “maybe the Super Bowl doesn’t attract as many high dollar amount gamblers as sports on other days of the year” is so obviously false it’s hardly even worth responding to
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@mikeMaher I don’t see how you can possibly get more than 10x traffic and get 1.5x more volume
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@Talophex entire article was weird. hes claiming 'lotta people were betting on seahawks so i bet on the patriots' if youre market making, arent you already getting patriots?
like is he even actually mming? seems like hes just betting on kalshi as a user lmao
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@monkey_reg Huh interesting, I didn’t even check, I figured if he was being mysterious about it he had it turned off
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