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I decided to take a position in $MRVL last Monday. I started the position at $88.66. Here is my investment thesis With AI models now having trillions of parameters, the limiting factor in compute performance is no longer the GPU itself, but the network required to synchronize the massive clusters. Marvell addresses exactly this Compute-to-Connectivity Shift challenge. The Copper Wall At 800G and 1.6T speed, traditional passive copper cables suffer from insertion loss and skin effects, limiting their effective reach to just 2–3 meters. Optical DSP Dominance To achieve the vast distances of modern AI factories, electrical signals must be converted into light. Marvell is estimated to hold a 70% market share in the 800G optical DSP market. Moreover, their 3nm 'Ara' DSP reduces power-per-bit by over 20% compared to previous generations, ensuring a leading position in the ongoing 1.6T upgrade cycle. Scale-Up Architecture Marvell is leading the charge in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Photonic Fabric technologies with their $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI and $540 million acquisition of XConn Technologies. This enables optical connections inside the chip package, overcoming the memory wall and reducing power consumption enormously. Financial Outperformance & The Custom Silicon Inflection Point Marvell’s high M&A activity and R&D investments are reaping significant rewards in terms of operating leverage. Record Revenue Acceleration Marvell announced a record Q4 FY2026 revenue of $2.219 billion, a year-over-year increase of 22%. The data center segment now represents 74% of total revenue. Custom Silicon Explosion Marvell’s custom silicon revenues grew from virtually zero just a few years ago to an annualized run rate of $1.5 billion. Through the co-design of its proprietary AI accelerators such as AWS Trainium and Microsoft Maia, Marvell locks in multi-generational and extremely sticky revenue streams with enormous switching costs. Explosive Cash Generation Through the use of its capital-light fabless model, Marvell has generated an enormous $1.57 billion in trailing free cash flow. For the past five years, free cash flow has compounded at an astonishing 38.4%. Valuation Realism Marvell’s Forward P/E of approximately 24.4x represents a strategic discount to its primary custom silicon industry competitor, $AVGO, which holds a Forward P/E of approximately 31x. Through the use of Reverse Discounted Cash Flow analysis, Marvell’s current $68 billion market capitalization indicates that the company’s free cash flow will compound annually at precisely 24.5% over the next 10 years. Considering the company’s guidance of nearing $11 billion in revenue for FY2027 and $15 billion for FY2028, as well as its historical free cash flow growth rate of 38.4%, the company’s free cash flow hurdle rate of 24.5% appears extremely achievable. Conclusion $MRVL represents one of the most fundamentally strong and strategically critical companies in the global AI ecosystem. Marvell’s dominance in the optical data transmission space and its rapidly expanding custom ASIC duopoly effectively insulate the company against competitive replacement. As the second wave of the AI hardware supercycle has commenced, they represent one of the top-tier infrastructure compounders. Note: this is my own financial journey, not financial advice. Do your own research.

GLM-5.1 just scored 45.3 on the coding benchmark. Claude Opus 4.6 scored 47.9. The gap is 2.6 points. The valuation gap is not 2.6 points.😂 Zhipu AI (HKG: 2513) is up 31% and the market is just now noticing that Chinese labs are shipping models at performance parity with frontier Western labs at a fraction of the valuation. This is the Chinese AI arbitrage thesis playing out in real time. DID YOU LISTEN NEPHEW? 😂😂😂

Breaking down TSMC's glass core substrate slide On June 11, at JPCA Show 2026 in Japan, TSMC gave a roughly 40-slide presentation titled "Advanced Packaging Technology Essential to the Evolution of AI" (AIの進化に不可欠な先端パッケージング技術). One slide from the deck, titled "Glass Substrate Development for CoWoS," has since leaked online and widespread attention. Here's a closer read of that slide (see attached image). I'll skip the technical background that is already widely available. One thing to flag: the "COP" on the slide does not stand for Chip-on-Package. It means Coplanarity. ▌ Key conclusions: 1. TSMC has officially announced a partnership with Ibiden and Innolux to develop a glass core substrate. The structure is a three-layer design, a glass core sandwiched between two ABF build-up layers. This is the "oS" in CoPoS. 2. The market underestimates how important the glass core substrate is. It's a must-have capability for TSMC. In other words, within CoPoS the "oS" matters more than the "CoP", which is also why, when it was tested, it was paired with the existing CoW rather than with CoP. 3. The glass core substrate costs several times more per unit than existing ABF substrates. The glass processed by Innolux is very expensive per unit and is the single most critical material. Besides Nvidia, two US-based customers have also expressed strong interest. ▌ Industry checks tied to this slide: 1. The glass core substrate shown on the slide is cut from a full-size 250×250mm one. The ABF build-up layers mainly use Ajinomoto's GL107, mixed with ABF-GCP, and were tested at 24–28 layers, which is the mainstream ABF spec for AI chips in 2027–2028. 2. The CoW used in TSMC's experiment is a test vehicle. It is sufficient to validate the most challenging mechanical-structure issues that arise when working with composite materials. Good results mean TSMC, Ibiden, and Innolux have together broken through the critical technical bottleneck. 3. Ibiden currently handles cutting the 250×250mm glass core substrate. When the 510×515mm format is used for pre-mass-production simulation in 2H27, if Ibiden still wants to reduce production complexity to protect its ultra-high gross margins, it may hand the cutting over to Innolux, which is more familiar with the properties of glass. ▌ The leaked slide shows the validation results of pairing CoW with the "oS" in CoPoS, i.e., the glass core substrate (labeled "glass-SBT" on the slide). This addresses the "Substrate mechanical and electrical Dilemma" raised on the previous slide, and it strongly underscores how important the "oS" is within CoPoS. 1. Within CoPoS, what CoP solves is production efficiency / cutting economics, which ties to cost and price. What the oS solves is warpage and durability, which determines whether the chip can be made at all, and whether it can work. 2. CoP and oS complement each other well when integrated, but looking out over the next few years their technical roles still differ. CoP is a very-nice-to-have optimization, and going without it simply means a more expensive chip. But the oS is a must-have. Without it, even being able to make a usable chip is in doubt. 3. Comparing their roles isn't about elevating oS at the expense of CoP. It comes down to the practical question of which technical piece customers are willing to pay for. Details below. ▌ The real gold here is the power integrity (PI) improvement shown on the slide. This matters a great deal to customers, and it means that once glass core substrate production stabilizes, TSMC's profitability and competitive edge should rise in tandem. 1. How it works: the glass core substrate is thin → the vertical conduction path through TGV (through-glass vias) is short → conduction-path resistance (R) and loop inductance (L) both drop → PI improves. 2. Why it matters to customers: better PI → more stable power delivery → frees up power headroom → room to integrate more transistors, or to push clock speeds higher → more AI compute. 3. For customers, production efficiency is TSMC's basic responsibility, so they won't pay extra for it. But gains in AI compute translate directly into the customer's own competitiveness and profit, so customers are willing to pay for that. This is why Nvidia is so positive on the glass core substrate. 4. For TSMC, the glass core substrate raises yield and lowers cost while also boosting both the compute and the selling price of AI chips. It's both a cost-cutting tool and a pricing lever, a plus for profitability and competitiveness alike. 5. Substrate cost currently accounts for a low single-digit percentage of an AI chip's BOM, while losses from packaging yield run roughly 5–10× the substrate cost. So even if the glass core substrate ends up costing several times more than today's, its share of the BOM stays low, and it can cut the losses from packaging yield. The high unit price is therefore not expected to dampen customers' willingness to adopt it. ▌ In the Q&A after the presentation, an audience member asked about TGV details for the glass core substrate. TSMC declined to answer on the spot, because TGV is the key technology behind the glass core substrate, and the core know-how currently sits with TSMC and Innolux. By contrast, when another attendee asked about integrating IVR, eDTC, and LSI, TSMC answered at length. ▌ According to industry checks, if all goes well, TSMC is aiming to start mass production of the glass core substrate in 4Q28–1Q29, to match the cadence of Nvidia's AI chip iterations. As a side note: the Ibiden earnings presentation slide that many people have been circulating lists the glass core substrate timeline as CY30. My read is this: Ibiden, which has always been conservative and cautious in public, has now formally put the glass core substrate on its roadmap, which further confirms the long-term trend for this technology. That said, some other details on Ibiden's slide don't fully line up with what's known in the market. For example, its reticle timeline is off from TSMC's public claims by about a generation, and the Rubin Ultra substrate size is clearly larger than the 90×90 it marked for CY26–27. It's a reminder to always cross-check across multiple sources when forecasting the future.

Heard today that $GOOG is evaluating procuring DRAM from Chinese vendors. Maybe for devices? Would be significant if for cloud.

I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.