CJB

@lupafin @nfergus You can believe whatever you want, doesn’t mean your “belief” is true. Dropping nuclear weapons on Israel could kill huge numbers of Palestinians and have widespread impact across Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt. 60% is not bomb level, that’s 90%+

@cbone287 @nfergus So why do you think they needed 60% enriched uranium??? Of course they wanted a bomb and if they got it, they would launch immediately at Israel. I don’t have any doubts about it.

Let me walk you through the events of the war so far: 1. The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement. 2. The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared. 3. Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution. 4. The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2. 5. In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept. 6. In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.) 7. Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it. 8. Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.

@DMichaelTripi Man, that America First sure hits different these days…

NEW: Trump administration is considering financial bailout for the United Arab Emirates over economic losses sustained from US war with Iran. -WSJ

@glennbeck TACO!!!

Time is NOT on Iran's side. Trump is using this peace deal to remind Iran that if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened fully, they will be sitting on more oil than they can produce. Their stockpiles will be capped, they'll be forced to stop production, and if they can’t move their oil, it could ruin them. Trump knew exactly how to choke Iran the moment the peace talks started. This is huge.

@Atlas29Shrugged @nfergus And strangle much of Asia too

@nfergus Iran's entire economy depends on the flow of oil. The blockade prevents that. Eventually, they will need to shut down the wells and potentially damage oil fields. The US can be patient and continue to block their ports and slowly strangle them without boots on the ground.

@lupafin @nfergus Jesus, you’re still selling this non-sense? If the Iranians would have wanted the bomb, they would have had one - not just HEU

@nfergus The regime change would be a bonus. A giant bonus. They tried to eliminate Iran’s capacity of getting a nuclear bomb in the short term and reduce it’s ballistic missiles the most they could. These missions were accomplished.

@ggreenwald Meanwhile, Bill Cristol has somehow become a sane adult. 2026 is weird

Going back 20 years, I often wrote about this transparent manipulation from Israel loyalists, illustrated by Alan Dershowitz's 7th announcement today that he's leaving the Democratic Party over Israel. Bill Kristol and other neocon media would frequently publish articles urging American Jews to switch to the GOP due to claims that Dems didn't defend Israel enough; some would falsely claim it was already happening. Their premise was obvious: Jewish voters cast votes based not on America but on what's best for this foreign country, the classic "dual loyalty" claim. But if an Israel critic expressed this same exact view -- that many Jewish American cast votes based on what's best for Israel -- these same people would call them an anti-Semite. So today, Dershowitz says again he's leaving the Dem Party over Israel. Precisely: Dershowitz votes in Ameican elections based on what's best for Israel.👇

@RedWhiteBlueJew @RedWavePress @eefrat2 Um…you do know Emmanuel was never AG right?

@RedWavePress @eefrat2 The AG who refused to enforce the law and decided that being besty with Barry was more important than doing his job

Rahm Emanuel: “No more U.S. military aid—financial assistance from the taxpayers for Israel. You’re a country like all other allies of ours, Japan, South Korea, the Brits, the Germans. You’re going to pay full price; you can buy what you want, but you have to abide by the laws that should be it.” “No more U.S. taxpayer support... I was in the room when President Obama’s largest assistance was under President Obama. We did the funding for the Iron Dome. But here, the days of taxpayer subsidizing Israel are over.” “No more financial aid.”

I told @raghavanreports that Iran is today led by a leadership, particularly in IRGC, who didn’t believe that Khamenei’s restraint, and the restraints of the previous generation of IRGC leaders that Israel eliminated, actually protected Iran. They think Khamenei was wrong, and that his stance invited the current aggression that they are facing. They’re more willing to take risks. They’re willing to do things that, previously, wouldn’t have been done, and basically saying, “You escalate, we escalate, or we escalate even more....They are more dangerous, but at the same time we’re seeing they’re not averse to talking. And maybe even more willing to talk than Khamenei who had a strategy of no talking and no war. The new leadership is basically saying, we’re not afraid of war, but we’re also not afraid of talking.

@fairflattaxnow @the_jefferymead @AnnCoulter Shia don’t do suicide bombings dude. Read a fucking book or two

@cbone287 @the_jefferymead @AnnCoulter Sure a terrorist nation did not want a nuke. I mean strapping bombs to the themselves to kill all the infidels is so much more effective than nuking someone.

Yay. The Strait that was open before we began bombing Iran open, is open again. Everybody pretend this is a huge victory for Trump so he'll end this catastrophe.

@robertjalberts @alexwickham Oh Robbie, did your feel bads get hurt? Poor little bitch

@robertjalberts @alexwickham Do you understand the function of the word “but”…or did you drop out before 2nd grade?

Exclusive: Iran Has Limited the Impact of US Strikes, Intelligence Says Pre-war planning meant Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments — which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails. Tehran has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximising the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said. Plans put in place by Iran to replace senior military leaders in the event they were killed meant the country was able to minimize disruption to its command and control structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said. It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armoury, the people added. These provide a much more nuanced picture of the outcomes of the US-Israeli operation than that portrayed by Trump and US administration officials. The effectiveness of Iran’s earlier military planning also raises the prospect that it could use the current ceasefire to make preparations for any resumption of hostilities. Story with @EllenAMilligan @AlbertoNardelli >>> bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@GeraldoRivera lol was it a bargain at $1.7B Geraldo?

Facilitated by the Pakistani government, it looks like the Iran War is ending. Don’t celebrate until it happens. If the deal is Iran gives up the nukes and we give them $20 billion, that is a bargain and a victory for Donald Trump & U.S.

@dkent2000 @elonmusk Math?

@elonmusk How does the government increase their revenue to write the checks when the AI and corresponding productivity is privately owned? What does the math look like?

Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation.

@elonmusk Remember how you were going find to $2 trillion in savings? Yeah…we’re never listening to you on federal finances again. Go back to building robots with your face on them

@Cernovich Who is “us” at this point? The Massie wing? The Tucker wing? The Fox News Wing?

The pro-war people can claim they were right and the panicans were wrong again. The anti-war can claim their pushback helped bring the war to the end. Great. Everyone was right. Now let’s try to not lose the midterms.

@CodyNorthwood @Cernovich lol so we end up with a deal that looks a lot like the previous one (maybe slightly worse) and you want to celebrate?

@Cernovich Everyone was not right... The anti-war bitches were wholly wrong... They threw away their credibility for what? Being America First by rooting for Iran didn't work out so great...

@MehekCooke Bahaha another retard that pays for a blue check so people think they’re opinion is worth a shit

Every foreign policy genius who spent a decade collecting paychecks to tell us Iran was untouchable just watched a real estate developer from Queens reopen the waterway that moves a third of the world's oil. The credential class should be embarrassed into silence.

@fairflattaxnow @the_jefferymead @AnnCoulter Jesus you’re retarded. We were sold this shit 23 years ago and your learned absolutely zero. If Iran wanted a bomb, they would have had a bomb

@the_jefferymead @AnnCoulter We stopped a terrorist country who was getting close to nukes, WHO WOULD HAVE USED THE BOMBS

@AlaliQasem Yeah… “someone”… whose name almost certainly rhymes with dump…

$760M short on oil. Placed 20 minutes before the Hormuz announcement. This is the 3rd time. March 23: $500M short — 15 minutes before Trump delayed Iran strikes. Oil dropped 15%. April 7: $950M short — hours before the US-Iran ceasefire. April 17: $760M short — 20 minutes before Hormuz declared open. The CFTC is investigating. The ‘peace trade’ was sold to retail. Someone else got out first. Who knew?

@SohrabAhmari To say nothing of almost certainly entrenching the Islamic Republic for another 30 years. Had Khameini died of natural causes, the regime likely would have collapsed on itself - now the world gets something more committed to Islamic revolution without velayat-e faqih to temper

All told, this was an extremely messy and costly way to retrench away from the Middle East and to recognize Iran as a regional linchpin (“Strait of Iran”). Obama tried to do the same thing in a more orderly way and without causing US bases, radar, etc. to be decimated.