Universal Basic Land

362 posts

Universal Basic Land

Universal Basic Land

@debugtweets

Fully Automated Luxury Aquaponic Earth Distributism. DIY. Localism. Georgism. Market anarchism. Universal Basic Land.

가입일 Temmuz 2010
2.1K 팔로잉176 팔로워
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
Workers who have the domain knowledge can automate their own work. And they should do it before someone else does.
alphaXiv@askalphaxiv

"Agents' Last Exam" With how AI keeps acing benchmarks, yet that hasn't turned into real economic value, the authors of this paper say the benchmarks are the problem, since none measure sustained work on real professional jobs. So they built ALE: 1,000+ long, real tasks across 55 fields, taken from work 250+ experts actually did, and graded automatically instead of by humans. Today's best agents barely pass with under 3% on the hardest tier. They also find the model matters ~3x more than the harness, and most failures come from lacking domain knowledge, not bad execution.

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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@thePartyPartyUS @aykutuz They will do whatever will drive up cost the most in the long term, because that's what insurance companies want. You would think it would be the opposite, but this is a side effect of regulations that cap premiums to a multiple of cost.
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Aykut Uz
Aykut Uz@aykutuz·
The very existence of “Overtreatment bc of more data “farce is a manifestation of the cognitive insufficiency in medicine. What’s available by tech exceeded capabilities of mds who are expected to process them. Their time is ending for the cognitive part of medicine; for good.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@BrainDrainApoc @DaveShapi I don't think that knowing it's going to change is a good reason to delay. It might be a little bit more like a race in which everyone else has already started running and you're still standing at the starting line.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@BrainDrainApoc @DaveShapi It seems like a useful analogy to consider. It seems a bit like learning math. It builds on itself. For me, programming has little to do with computers or technology. I fooled around with computers for over 5 years before I understood this.
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David Shapiro (L/0)
David Shapiro (L/0)@DaveShapi·
All you people scrambling to develop AI skills realize that the shelf life for those skills will be measured in months, right? Best case scenario is a couple years. Rushing to get into AI right now would be like rushing to get into auto manufacturing in 1983. Or coal before that. Entry level hiring is already dropping like a stone, which means unless you already have valuable experience, you're not climbing that ladder. If you want a long term strategy, get out of tech. Healthcare is adding 10x the numbers of the tech sector, and will take much, much longer to automate due to the highly variable nature of healthcare and the fact that it has statutory protection. In other words, if you remember the late 90s and early 2000s when everyone was screaming "get into tech, we have talent shortage!" that's what healthcare is doing now. All the people token-maxxing and making money with it are already successful founders, exited founders, or have a ton of experience in the industry. I'm not saying that "no one is gonna make anymore" I'm just saying that for the median human, going for RN or PA (registered nurse or physicians assistant) is a far more viable path. Elder care is the largest growing subset of healthcare, btw.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@BrainDrainApoc @DaveShapi I mean I was programming for 5 years. I was writing programs. But they were simple ones. I have a computer and I was programming but the part I didn't understand didn't involve computers at all.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@ThatSpringerNH @travis4nh Good point! Plus some subjects require actually doing stuff, with actual things. Science, music, PE, and I ideally every other subject would include some of this.
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K@ThatSpringerNH·
@travis4nh Teachers can't be replaced by LLMs. Because their actual jobs are to be babysitters.
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travis4nh
travis4nh@travis4nh·
the average doctor is not only much dumber than you realize; they are much more arrogant than you realize. They, like schoolteachers, deserve to be replaced with LLMs, for the benefit of humanity.
Prince Vogelfrei 🐦‍⬛@PrinceVogel

Over the course of this discourse over midjourney I've asked in good faith doctors to explain something about their opinion only to repeatedly be told 1) you don't practice medicine lol 2) no I won't give you a real answer Few classes deserve to lose their authority more

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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@cheeseheadexpat That is true. That's more true than something I wrote earlier today. I have thought that not doing meditation and reflection and being humble can make people dumb. It takes humility to learn. We need trauma therapy and spiritual development.
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Cheesehead Expat
Cheesehead Expat@cheeseheadexpat·
Propaganda works on dumb people and smart people. Because propaganda pushes emotional buttons.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@perrymetzger @krishnanrohit The ACA caps profits by fixing the ratio of premiums to cost. This creates a perverse incentive for insurers to increase costs bc it's the only way to grow. It's not a conspiracy but simply the Nash equilibrium. Perhaps insurers compel doctors to make bad decisions.
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rohit
rohit@krishnanrohit·
I absolutely refuse to believe more information is bad. You can use information badly but I fundamentally disagree that ignorance is a protective shield we should wear with pride.
Jeremy S. Pollock@bmorecardiology

Same issue w full body MRI.. indiscriminate screening of healthy people causes harm Making the scan quicker and cheaper… likely will increase the scale of the harm. @CanesDavid @afshineemrani @grok explain harms in screening a population w low pretest probability for disease

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Michael Veroukis
Michael Veroukis@MichaelVeroukis·
@beffjezos Exactly. Communism guaranteed everyone a job. UBI guarantees everyone an income. In communism, people are still required, with UBI, people are 100% a cost, a liability, a burden. It's way worse than communism.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@BenPhillip44103 @beffjezos Success is well predicted by a combination of stable circumstances, security, and IQ. Iq is strongly linked to genetics. It's an aptitude, not a guarantee of anything. But if you can't remember things, for example, you're probably going to have a hard time.
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Ben Phillips
Ben Phillips@BenPhillip44103·
@beffjezos IQ is based off of a human's (no such thing) ability to parrot incorrect information accurately. Actual (real, not made up) Intelligence is based off of ones ability to create novelties. Neither one is anywhere in the same universe as the other.
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Adam Pippert
Adam Pippert@AdamPippert·
@beffjezos UBI != UBC, and we should lean hard into the capital part of this. Risk needs to be involved. The fake risk mitigation is the part that derails communism. No risk or reward means no incentive to improve.
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Santa Claude
Santa Claude@santaclaude90·
@beffjezos Why does everyone hate on this idea when Dario says it, but crickets when Musk says it?
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@beffjezos Distributism is like the opposite of Communism. When you don't do distributism, you have to do many "communist lite" statist things to stop people from violent revolution.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@marcsh @PrinceVogel Yes, STEM has arrogance too. But as an engineer without a PE license, I've been asking myself why I trust my fellow salaried engineers more than doctors, and I think the main reason is that few engineers sell our time by the hour. We focus on a task for months or years.
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Prince Vogelfrei 🐦‍⬛
Prince Vogelfrei 🐦‍⬛@PrinceVogel·
Over the course of this discourse over midjourney I've asked in good faith doctors to explain something about their opinion only to repeatedly be told 1) you don't practice medicine lol 2) no I won't give you a real answer Few classes deserve to lose their authority more
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@tonyannett I agree if you mean right libertarianism. I switched from that to left libertarianism when I stopped being a low information voter.
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Tony Annett
Tony Annett@tonyannett·
Libertarianism is not just immoral; it’s also boring and outdated.
Gad Saad@GadSaad

The problem with the welfare state and its confiscatory taxation system is that there are ZERO repercussions if politicians steal your money "legally" and squander it accordingly. Any system that decouples the natural link between causes and effects will lead to disaster. This is why what starts off as a small temporary levying of taxes more than 100 years ago becomes the tax code that we see today. Politicians do not view an individual's hard-earned money as theirs to keep. Rather they view your money as something that they allow you to keep a small portion of. Accordingly, you should be "thankful" that the government allows you to keep any of your money. This "proves" that they are kind and empathetic. It is a complete moral inversion of personal agency, liberty, and freedom. No system should take so much taxes from you that it forces you to work 10 extra years to make up for what was taken from you.

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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@1cavemank @perrymetzger The EE and econ in me are saying these ultrasound based machines could, if they work, be so much cheaper than MRI and so much safer than CT, that there could be a large enough supply of them to meet the demand quickly and cheaply.
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K@1cavemank·
@perrymetzger And to all of them "getting another cheap and easy scan in a couple weeks to see if it's changed" is a wild idea. Because right now appointments take weeks to setup and get results back, so that's not an option.
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Perry E. Metzger
Perry E. Metzger@perrymetzger·
It’s just remarkable watching doctors explaining that if anyone does additional tests, they will be forced, as though by an inescapable physical process, to take bad actions based on the additional data from the tests. They correctly say that the literature shows outcomes for patients who get these tests are worse, but then they draw completely the wrong conclusion, claiming that the problem is the tests and not that physicians were incorrectly trained on how to analyze the tests and make decisions based upon them. None of them seem to have heard of conditional probability estimates, the literature on making decisions under incomplete information, etc. One of them earlier asked me what I would do if I saw some unknown mass in a scan, and after I answered “I would start by consulting the statistics to figure out prior probabilities and attempt to do a conditional probability estimate based on them, he insisted I was not answering his question.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@perrymetzger Perhaps that is a Freudian slip, that maybe they *will* be compelled to take wasteful actions. After all, insurance companies now maximize cost in the long term, due to regulations fixing the ratio of premiums to cost. The only way to grow the company is to increase the costs.
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Universal Basic Land
Universal Basic Land@debugtweets·
@LeRoyDesCimes Getting them to spew out a number is not the same as getting them to properly calculate conditional probabilities. The doctors who wanted to learn that enrolled in a master of public health program and sat beside me.
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Louise 🔸
Louise 🔸@LeRoyDesCimes·
Btw you can get probabilities out of medical personnel, you just need to fling absurd numbers at them "What are the chances I'm better by next week?" "Oh it's not that easy to say..." "Like 95% I'm all cured?" "Not 95! Maybe 40%"
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탐색

@thePartyPartyUS @aykutuz @BrainDrainApoc @DaveShapi @ThatSpringerNH @travis4nh @cheeseheadexpat @perrymetzger