bazz.r.itchie

@iain_00 @lindseyhilsum Obama was giving Iran a few $bn. Which is absolute pocket change to what Trump has spent already and it is projected to cost. Projections were $323 before the ceasefire and current developments. If a ground invasion of the coastline does happen. God knows how much it'll cost.

@lindseyhilsum And it appears that the main reason Trump withdrew from previous 'hard worked for' deal was that he saw it as an Obama deal. Or maybe for some other destabilising reason.

The Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from came after 12 years of negotiations. Yet Vance thought Iran would accept US terms after 21 hours. The US thinks Iran lost this war, so they can dictate terms. Iran thinks it won, and - to use Trump's terms - has many cards to play.

@JamesEhoff75 @AmoneyResists @BarackObama I didn't say that. I said research why these groups exist in the first place. Then gave one example of the level of corruption deceit. Its not my responsibility to do your research for you.

@spermo93 @AmoneyResists @BarackObama Hamas is the only proxy of Iran? The entirety of the Middle East is littered with terrorist groups funded by Iran who were funded by the “agreements”.

WE. REACHED. A. FUCKING. AGREEMENT. WITH. THEM. IN. 2015. THAT. IMPOSED. STRICT. LIMITS. ON. URANIUM. ENRICHMENT. UNTIL. 2040. It was called the JCPOA. And Trump TORE IT UP IN 2018 out of spite for @BarackObama 8 years later, here we are. Total. Disaster.

@GrumpyHobbit22 @_HenryBolton It was projected at $323bn before the ceasefire and current developments. God knows what it could project at if the US went ahead with a ground invasion.

@_HenryBolton They have calculated that the cost of defeating them in blood, treasure and political fall out is more than trump is willing to bear. Probably correctly. They dont have to do anything. The world economy is going down the tubes and trump owns it.

With the Islamabad peace talks having broken down, as I predicted and for the reasons I predicted, the US now has a huge and twofold problem. It is this… The White House can go to the huge expense of bombing the country “back to the Stone Age”, but no amount of military firepower will change geography. Iran will still sit on the shores of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the present Iranian regime has made very clear that it will not abandon its nuclear ambitions. This entire conflict could have been approached differently, but we’re are now where we are, and there appear to be only four options for President Trump: 1) Invade to seize control of the Iranian coast and its islands in the Strait- This is a high risk option that would not guarantee safety of shipping, would be extremely expensive in blood and $, would be very difficult operationally and politically to sustain, and has no clear exit. It also doesn’t address Iran’s nuclear ambition. 2) Simply keep bludgeoning the country until a benign replacement regime emerges - A benign regime as an outcome is far from guaranteed. A succession of hardliners may appear instead. Then, if and when a cooperative regime emerges, and given the state the country will likely then be in, its ability to unite and stabilise the country cannot now be predicted with certainty. Reconstruction costs will escalate significantly. 3) Fund, arm and encourage an uprising of sorts - think Afghan Northern Alliance - This will difficult - not impossible - to create, be subject to significant infighting, be expensive, almost certainly lead to huge Iranian casualties and abuses, may not succeed, and will anyway most likely take a great deal of time. 4) Walk away - But this would leave in place a regime that is even more extreme, militarised, anti-American, determined to pursue a nuclear weapons programme and to weaponise the Strait of Hormuz than before. That looks very much like defeat. It’s also worth saying that I see very little chance of a third party being successful in mediating or sorting this out now. So the rest of the world must prepare to ride out the geopolitical and economic storm, whilst perhaps the UK & Europeans, together with regional allies, prepare to exploit any diplomatic opportunity that may arise (unlikely as the right leadership is absent). In the meantime China and Russia carry on doing what they’re doing while everyone else is now has to worrying about and using up bandwidth in the Middle East.

@JamesEhoff75 @AmoneyResists @BarackObama What are you on about? Iran didnt start enriching Uranium until AFTER Trump ripped up the agreement. Also, research into why these terrorist groups exist in the first place. Netanyahu also funded Hamas in the 90s.

@AmoneyResists @BarackObama Iran immediately broke the agreement and started enriching. And with the extra money started funding proxy terrorist groups that murdered hundreds and thousands over the years and cause untold amounts of damage. Resist being a stupid person!

@MAGA_Hoosier @AmoneyResists @BarackObama They didn't violate it until after Trump ripped up the JCPOA. That is the reality. Trump engineered this entire situation along with Netanyahu whispering nothing good in the US Govs ears since the 90s. All of which is easily researched and proven.

@AmoneyResists @BarackObama THEY VIOLATED IT MULTIPLE TIMES. STOP DEFENDING TERRORISTS WHO DON’T UPHOLD THEIR END OF DEALS 👏🏻👏🏻

@HK8521258 @HuXijin_GT What a selfish statement and point of view.

@HuXijin_GT I support to resume the war, in a larger scale. Republicans to lose the midterm elections whilst Iran to lose the whole country. That’s the fair price to both sides. Only when one side is completely eliminated, the war will end completely and the region will win lasting peace.

The failure to reach an agreement does not in itself mean an escalation. The key is for the U.S. and Iran to prevent the situation on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz from spiraling out of control. Incidents like U.S. warships suddenly entering the strait on Saturday, which drew sharp warnings from Iran, are highly dangerous.

@Ebadnsvu @NajamAli2020 No. That isn't what I implied at all. You are the one talking about "a fair chance of boots on the ground"....

@spermo93 @NajamAli2020 Man this guy thinks war is won based on number of people, brother we are not living in Mongol era, if unit count was a thing of value Russia wouldve run over Ukraine by now, their soldiers are hunted by cheap drones these days, wake up and smell the coffee its coming their way

The deal is blocked by a single reality: the U.S. has to accept that the pre-war position is gone and cannot be restored. The sooner this sinks in, the better it is for the U.S.

@Ebadnsvu @NajamAli2020 Iran have 900k+ soldiers, police and militia. Its also estimated that 1m+ civilians would pick up arms. All in a country with natural defenses dubbed "the best in the world" and not to mention the 50-150 underground bunkers filled with high tech missiles.

@NajamAli2020 Why dont we wait and see how War actually ends? USA has tried air raids only so far, give them a fair chance of boots on ground, like we did to Iran of shooting missiles at civilian infrastructure, and see how it goes then may be Iran and Najam sb can declare victory

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji Continents are still making their way through oil reserves right now. 3.3% is a direct result of a subsidised oil stock. You aren't taking into consideration when these stocks run out..

@spermo93 @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji You just said inflation was 3.3%. Now you say it’s 33-50%.

The US never had any intention of making a deal All just a smoke screen to prepare for the next leg of escalation

@WrubleB @grok @cenkuygur It says at the end of every Grok you've put no clean winners or everyone loses.. who is effected most doesnt matter because everyone is losing so much in the first place. Its moot.

@grok @spermo93 @cenkuygur Something like that. Give 1-5 possible winners with probabilities & explanations.

I think we’re used to getting everything we want. But that’s not how the real world works. The Iranians have closed the Strait of Hormuz and can now use the world economy as leverage. I don’t think we understand the position we’re in. Israel has put us in an untenable place.

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji You are conflating 2 separate points. I said inflation is up 3.3% NOW since the start of the war. I'm giving a broad idea of what some goods will then cost to manufacture. Not everything will become more expensive at the exact same rate.

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji You're conflating 2 separate points.

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji Not everyone makes stuff. In fact the US makes less stuff than it ever has. And now the majority of people who all don't "make stuff" are paying 1/3 to half more for it than they did before the war.

@spermo93 @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji Yes. And people who make stuff for a living are killing it. People who work in offices, not so much.

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji Overall investment in US manufacturing has went down and down since Trump came in.

@spermo93 @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji Our GDP is going up. We’re oil, fertilizer, and food producers. This is good for the country, particularly people who make stuff.

@WrubleB @cenkuygur @grok Oil prices are also set Internationally so the US will still be paying the same as everyone else because of it.

@spermo93 @cenkuygur I understand your concern. Look at the bigger picture of who loses if the strait of Hormuz is closed. @grok ?

@WrubleB @cenkuygur Its hard to quantify considering how much it effects the worldwide economy really. Everyone will have harsh effects to the point any one more bunch being effected more is almost irrelevant.

@spermo93 @cenkuygur Which countries are at the biggest loss due to the Strait of Hormuz closing?

@IlliniProgrammr @Ross__Hendricks @anasalhajji So what part about losing the ability to fertilise food and losing a massive chunk of 14% of your GDP coincides with US strategy? Those are 2 examples of a host of issues why Hormuz matters to the US. That is why Trump has been desperate for a ceasefire for WEEKS.

@spermo93 @Ross__Hendricks No, as @anasalhajji has repeatedly said, the closure of Hormuz actually appears to coincide with long-term US strategic interests.