Peter.T

I'm officially right curve. Test your CryptoIQ by @TheBlock__ @TheBlockCampus #CryptoIQ, Y4KSHR6W

@VALORANTLeaksEN @AriVLRNT so odin is still not nerfed and they r completely killing yoru r they fking stupid?

Patch 12.05 // Yoru Changes // #VALORANT Gatecrash Duration beacon is active reduced 30s >> 15s Blindside Charges reduced from 2 >> 1 🔗: @AriVLRNT

We’re excited to announce that Susquehanna Crypto has made a strategic investment in Dorado! The myth was true - there’s gold in El Dorado. Discover the lost city and claim real wins from day one. Stay tuned for more updates.

I'm registered for the @infinex sale - $99.99M FDV, 3-6 Jan 2026

@bc1qDave 科大学长(学弟)写的真牛逼 最近对mm感兴趣读了你三篇学到还蛮多的

【进击的 MM 3：统计优势与信号设计】 前两集提到了订单流和库存报价， 听起来做市商好像只能被动调整，但是他们有没有主动出击的手段呢？ 答案是有的，今天介绍统计优势和信号设计，也是做市商追求的”micro alpha” 1， 做市商的 alpha? Micro alpha 是在极短时间尺度（~100ms 到 ~10s）上，对下一次价格变动方向 / 中间价漂移 / 成交不对称性的“条件概率偏移“，需要注意的是，mm 眼里的 alpha不是趋势预测或者猜涨跌幅，只需要概率偏移，这和我们常说的 alpha 是两个东西。接下来用人话解释： 做市商统计优势可以理解为，在一个极短时间窗口内，盘口状态是否“倾向于”让价格向某个方向先动一步。 如果 mm 通过一些指标成功算出来下一毫秒的价格走向概率，那么他们就可以 1：在更可能上涨前更愿意买。2：在更可能下跌前更快撤买单。3：在危险时刻减少暴露。 预测下一步价格方向的金融学基础是：由于订单流，挂单量，盘口撤单比等因素（待会会讲），市场在一个短瞬间内不是“随机漫步”的布朗运动，而是有方向的。上面这句话就是“条件概率”这个数学概念的金融学翻译。 有了这些 alpha，做市商就可以方向性对价格做操作，狗庄终于赚到了价位的钱而不只是 spread 这种服务费了。 2， 经典信号介绍 2.1 Order Book Imbalance：OBI OBI 是看当前价位附近，哪一边“站着的人更多”，是一个 标准化的 volume 差分统计量。 这个公式其实不难，就是个加和的比例逻辑。看买单多还是卖单多。OBI 趋近于 1，说明几乎都是出价买单，下面很厚。趋近于-1 则是上面厚。趋近于 0 说明买卖比较对称。 需要注意的是，OBI 是“静态快照”，很经典的指标但单独没什么效果，要和 撤单比，订单簿斜率这些一起用。 2.2 Order Flow Imbalance（OFI） OFI 看的是最近一小段时间内，谁在主动进攻。OFI 是价格变化的一阶驱动项，因为价格是被 taker单推动的，不是被挂单推动的。 有点净买卖量的感觉，在 Kyle (1985) 框架中，ΔP≈λ⋅OFI，λ是 tick 深度，所以 OBI 就是推动价格的因子。 2.3 Queue Dynamics（队列演化） 现在大多数交易所是连续竞价规则，按照最优价和 fcfs 原则，所以提交的单子会排队等吃。队列是挂单情况，挂单情况决定盘口状态，异常盘口状态（还有补单撤单情况）暗示方向性价格变化，也就是 micro alpha。 queue要注意两种情况： 1， Iceburg:隐藏单 例子，表面只挂10 手。但每次被打完，立刻再补 10 手。实际真实意图可能是1000 手。我在第一集中介绍的恶心狗庄拉低成本价的方法其实就是手搓 iceburg。实战中，有些玩家想掩盖真实单量，也会搞 iceburg。 2， Spoof（虚假挂单） 在某一侧挂很大的单，目的是制造“压力假象”，在价格接近前迅速撤掉。Spoof 会污染 OBI 和 Slope 等等，让 queue 虚假增厚，增加移动风险。同时有些大 spoof 会吓唬市场，可能会操纵价格，伦敦交易所好像 2015 年抓过一个操纵外汇的老哥，他就是 spoof。但是在币圈，我们也可以手搓 spoof 恶心狗庄，可是一旦真被成交的话你的暴露就很大了 2.4 盘口撤单比（Cancel Ratio） 撤单比是是一个 流动性“消失率”估计量： Cancel↑⇒Slope↓⇒λ↑⇒ΔP 更敏感。它是领先于OFI 的不稳定性信号。 CR->1: 几乎纯撤单。CR->0: 几乎纯补单。这一集的数学公式都很简单，看图说话就可以解读了。CR↑⟹被动方认为未来风险上升，同时 CR 也不会单独用，都是和 OFI 这些东西一起使用的。 上面这些可能也就是老掉牙的几个盘口游戏，做市进化的速度还是很快的，况且股票上链后 js 这些 mm 可能都要涉及链上做市了。但是这些指标还是很有用并且 inspring. 3， 做市商的绝对领域：速度 我们在电影里经常听到某家基金网速更快，所以更屌。包括很多做市商会把机房搬到离交易所服务器更近的地方，这到底是为什么呢？本文最后聊一聊物理设备的优势，和币圈交易所特色的“成交优势”。 Latency Arbitrage 并不是预测未来价格，而是在别人“还没反应过来之前”，以更优惠的价格成交买卖单。 在理论模型中：价格是连续的，信息是同步的。但是在现实中：市场是事件驱动，信息是异步到达。信息为什么会异步到达？因为你接受交易所的价格信号，和向交易所发订单指令都需要时间，这是物理世界的限制。即使在完全合规的市场中：不同交易所，不同数据源，不同撮合引擎，不同地理位置都会导致延迟。所以拥有更先进设备的 mm 就有主动权。 这个考验的是做市商自身实力，和其他玩家关系不大，所以我认为是他们的绝对领域。 最简单地举个例子，比如你要卖出一笔，这时你按照市场上最优卖价报价，理论上可以成交，但是我同时也要卖出，由于我看到价格和报价速度都比你快，于是我先把单子吃了，你存货无法出手，导致头寸中性持续无法恢复。现实情况会复杂很多。 有趣的一点是，由于现在还没有监管法，币圈几乎所有交易所，可以直接给指定账户优先成交权。意思是给某些指定账户插队的权利。在一些小所中尤其常见，说明币圈成为“自己人”的重要性不亚于科研。能不能安全成交是 Alpha 理论跨向实战的重要一关 本集我尝试从 mm 视角写了篇内容，实际上的操作肯定更为复杂，比如 dynamic queue 这一个东西，实战中都有很多细节要注意。欢迎老师们点评。 😆后记：其实这篇文章有两个遗憾，“做市中的领域展开”这个 title，我本来想用来讲动态对冲和期权，因为我认为这是做市里概念难度最高的板块，对得起领域展开这个大招。但是我昨天弄了一天，文章都写了一半了，实在不知道怎么系统性的说这个事，遂换成讲micro alpha 第二个遗憾是 就在昨晚，12.25，我之前的蓝 v赞助商把我蓝标取了，我自己没买 premium+，本来文章都写好了，蓝 v 过期没法发出来，只能早上重新写帖子。。 @agintender 老师有篇文章提到了很多专业对冲概念，鼓励大家去看看 x.com/agintender/sta… ，这个板块我们或许用零碎一点的方式分享出来。 感谢支持进击的 MM 系列，还会再更，关注我学习更多理财小知识～

important: at epoch 208305, octra network was upgraded to mainnet alpha full testnet history since genesis block is preserved and all testnet assets are now preserved as mainnet assets see updated @octrascan for more information in the upcoming days

@jackvi810 @yieldchad Regarding 2, maybe thats why down only projects also aren’t rare in the market? Most crypto projects are uninvestable in first place

I agree that $ENA is trading at a high P/E, but there are two things you need to take into account: 1. Your revenue numbers may be off, you should double-check them on DeFiLlama. 2. High P/E isn’t rare in this market. If you use P/E as a hard filter, over 50% of crypto projects would be uninvestable. More importantly: How many protocols this cycle are actually showing real growth, beyond a handful like Hyperliquid, Ethena, Morpho, Spark, etc.?

Let’s do some math. USDE market cap - $6.5B ENA FDV - $3.7B 10 year treasury yield - 4.2% sUSDE staking APR - 3.9% ENA makes a spread of 30bps. Let’s assume ZERO OPERATING COSTS. 30bps * 6.5B = 19.5M in earnings for ENA, which now trades at 190x P/E ENA is probably hemorrhaging cash and the token is massively overvalued. You won’t believe what happens next 👀📉

hot take: this seems retarded but is good for the project long term Literally stolen so much free mindshare the past couple days

As I mentioned before, I really like Fogo's tech. But I have to admit if you participate in the ICO at $1b you probably hate money...

We’re bringing on John MacDonald as a technical advisor to GTE. John has held many top positions in tech, including as the CTO of Citadel Securities EU. He brings decades of experience building high-frequency, low-latency trading systems across at the highest level, and is helping us make sure that GTE is the most performant decentralized exchange and blockchain in the world. lfGTE

@0xGeeGee N1, Aztec, Octra Feels like Fluent ngmi

What other L1s are we waiting the TGE for in the next few months? MegaETH Fluent Fogo What else

Another Sonar sale @octra Octra is a project that I have been following for a while and I have always found it extremely exciting To my understanding, except from Zama, they are the minority within the space to building their own FHE scheme (Hypergraph FHE). They are also built entirely with a proprietary stack, and unlike traditional FHE, they are able to push the peak TPS to 10k+ More importantly, the team @octralex has also been able to deliver At $200m FDV I believe the ICO valuation is pretty fair and tokenomics wise imo is also very evenly distributed Would highly recommend you to check it out

[ ZOOMER ] OCTRA, AN FHE-BASED PRIVACY BLOCKCHAIN ANNOUNCES SONAR ICO, SET AT A $200M VALUATION: THE BLOCK

@Remitarded @Euphoria_fi So many Euphoria copycats recently lol But they won't be able to beat the first and the best :)

Kudos to @Euphoria_fi for kicking off a new trend I'm sure a lot of people had trouble understanding options, copycats are a great sign

@katexbt @monad TLDR: Bad Market Sentiment, Testnet Farmer Fud, Poor tokenomics Waiting for price discovery

Whats going on with @monad TL;DR me

No one cares about decentralization until it truly matters Usability is important but we should never compromise decentralization for high-performance imo Decentralization is always one of the core ethos of crypto to avoid cases like this @paradex

@shiraishihayao @Walter_Su11ivan @NaveenCypto if you want riskless dont come onchain

@Walter_Su11ivan @NaveenCypto dude BUIDL is effectively RISKLESS

Tough times for Ethena - TVL dropping - Yields dropping to 5.1% - Terminal Project gone. - Converge chain gone. $ENA

@calchulus Dignity

the most important thing in crypto starts with D what do you think it is? (wrong oanswers only?)

So @Lighter_xyz is now becoming a SuperApp From perps to forex. And now equity integrating equities perps and spot Super bullish on lighter gLighter🕯️

@fiyalkin @Lighter_xyz Don't forget lighter is also making $325m annualized revenue! lighter will def cook

lighter just hit 100k on x here’s what we’ve got so far🔽 > tvl: $1,206,578,361 > oi: $1,800,950,658 > daily vol: $8,897,536,553 > users: 564,769 > pairs: 113 > point price: 82$ otc @lighter_xyz will cook - did i miss anything?

@kepochnik I think >1B is literally free money, and >4B is pretty high r:r they will def launch this year imo

Lighter’s big moment could be just weeks away Polymarket odds for their airdrop hover around? Secured $68M from major investors and tier-1 capitals TVL is above $1.15B, and month volume close to $280B CEO hints a token launch during the holiday season, though not exactly Dec 31 Meme airdrop is planned before the TGE All key events: mainnet release, airdrop, TGE, need to happen within 36 days There’s roughly a 30% chance of a January delay Final timeline depends on how fast the mainnet launches and future announcements.