0xyfed

My full SpaceX IPO watchlist 🚀 Direct proxies (actual SpaceX equity) $GOOGL $BPTRX $DXYZ $XOVR $SATS Halo plays 🛰️ $ASTS $VOYG $RKLB $SATL $LUNR Supply chain ⚙️ $STM $PL ETFs 📊 $UFO $ARKX $ROKT ⚠️ Structural caution: $DXYZ $XOVR — NAV premium and liquidity mismatch risk into the S-1 flip in May Full breakdown with tiers, deep dives, and risk stack 👇 0xyfed.substack.com/p/the-apex-par…

🚨 Are lower-priced AI models really cheaper? Beware of the "Price Reversal" phenomenon in Reasoning Language Models (RLMs)! 💸 We evaluated frontier RLMs and found sth shocking: a model with lower API pricing can actually cost more! 🧵👇

@JohnCardosa @RealSimpleAriel oh man look at $AXTI now -24%

@RealSimpleAriel 3rd time is the charm

March 2026 recap! Market kept up its choppy ways until finally losing the 200sma. That provided opportunities but not without some headaches along the way. Please feel free to retweet this to your trader friends! Lets dive in. 🧵

@RealMattMoney It might. But 'eventually' is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Azure AI is growing fast but capex is growing faster(!) at some point margins have to prove out. I'm not bearish MSFT, just saying $10T requires a decade of near-perfect execution.

@0xyfed And it won’t?

Last week I bought 200 shares of $msft @ $360 That $72,000 purchase will eventually be worth over $300,000. Microsoft will eventually be a $1500 stock, worth over $10 trillion dollars.

@cantonmeow Been slammin the table on it x.com/0xyfed/status/…

#Ethereum is an incredible opportunity right now.

$ETH yearly returns since launch (2015-2026 YTD) 8 bull years. 4 bear years. Best: +9,383% (2017) Worst: -82% (2018) 2025-2026 is only the second back-to-back negative stretch in ETH history. The first one (2018-2019) was followed by +464% and +405%. History doesn't guarantee anything. But the pattern is hard to ignore. $ETH #Ethereum

@SpaceInvestor_D Friedberg's long arc is right but the near-term front-run is simpler - Starship HAS to work first. Without sub-$200/kg launch costs the Moon economy doesn't happen at any timeline. That makes the SpaceX IPO window the actual entry point for everything downstream.

While everyone is sharing the Chamath clip, Friedberg’s opening point is the real gem. "The Moon could end up being the next Industrial frontier for humanity. We could run continuous mining and manufacturing processes on the Moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth." One day, there may be more reentries than launches.

"Open the fuckin Strait" I whisper to my wife as I snuggle up beside her

Agreed on the sell-the-news dynamic - that's the S-1 flip risk in May, not the IPO day itself. The public filing is when xAI burn and Starship capex become visible for the first time. That's the real re-rating event. On $RKLB specifically - structurally sound but the $1B ATM and $268M of CEO selling create ceiling pressure into the narrative window. Waiting for a clean entry above the 50-day around $72-75 before adding. IMO $SATL is the cleaner near-term setup - confirmed SpaceX MLA, Navy contracts, no ATM overhang.

$RKLB is back inside the falling wedge now after a strong week last week. More and more info about the SpaceX IPO is being released, driving all space stocks higher, aiming for a June/July 2026 IPO date, with a target valuation of $1.75tn. I, personally, think this SpaceX IPO will be a ‘sell the news’ style event, and it won’t be a stock I buy on IPO day. But until we get to that point, I think $RKLB $ASTS $SATL and other space stocks will continue pushing higher, likely hitting new All Time Highs over the next few months. Will you hold $RKLB through the SpaceX IPO and over the next few years?

I saw quite a lot of these "Chamath nails it" posts over the weekend. The Aramco to SpaceX framing is right. But the more interesting question is what the equivalent of "buying Saudi oil stocks before Aramco IPO'd" looks like in this cycle. THAT's the actual trade.

Axios: U.S., Iran, and mediators discuss 45‑day ceasefire

@StonkChris buying commons for long term is fine, but if you are a swing trader you would like to see a strong upside and break over weekly 200MA

Imagine being bearish on $MSFT here. Price has already pulled back nearly -40% straight into a major HTF horizontal support zone. Weekly RSI is now more oversold than the 2022 bear market lows and the April 2025 tariff flush. At some point, you have to ask yourself: are you analyzing the chart…or just chasing the narrative? Hard to find a better value setup anywhere in the market than this name right now.

@OptionsMir Agreed. We got potentially 3 hot IPOs this year (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) and lots of sympathy plays

Last week our main $SPY swing trade went 300%. $LITE: 2 trades that went 10x and 1 that went 6x. After this beautiful 3 day break, I don’t know about you guys, but I’m ready to do it again 🔥

Good setups. $UFO is the cleanest ETF play for catching the whole sector without picking names - RKLB as second largest holding. Two names worth adding to the watchlist: $SATL and $VOYG. Both have confirmed SpaceX operational relationships and real catalysts before the S-1 flips public in May. Fundamentals match the technical base you're seeing.

Space exploration theme This has to be the best looking overall sector in the market With a ton of tailwinds + the upcoming SpaceX IPO These massive bases can start resolving higher A few charts you should keep your eye on for the coming weeks: $UFO $BKSY $LUNR $RKLB

WTI crude surges to $115

The OSI acquisition is underappreciated. Owning the optics in-house changes the margin profile on every defense contract going forward, and that is not in the consensus model yet. The bear case you identified is the right one. AFP machine scaling for Neutron stage one is the execution risk that determines whether the $1.85B backlog converts at the margins the bull case assumes. Long-term this is the strongest $RKLB thesis I’ve seen. Near-term the $1B ATM and $268M of CEO selling create ceiling pressure into the SpaceX narrative window. Structurally sound, tactically worth waiting for a cleaner entry.

rocket lab is no longer just a rocket company 🤯 i loves $rklb for their 21 successful launches in 2025, but the real alpha is hiding in their space systems segment. they won a massive $816 million contract from the space development agency (sda) to build 18 spacecraft for the tranche 3 tracking layer. why did they win against legacy defense primes? because they bought the entire payload chain. they acquired geost to get into payloads, and then they literally just acquired optical support inc (osi) in early 2026. optics are the most expensive, longest-lead items in missile tracking, and while legacy defense companies outsource them, rocket lab now owns the manufacturing in-house. their backlog is now a record $1.85 billion. i might be overly optimistic because i love vertical integration, and my thesis could break if their new automated fiber placement (afp) machine fails to scale neutron's stage one tank production fast enough. hardware is a nightmare to scale. but they aren't just selling the delivery truck anymore; they are selling the multi-million dollar cargo inside it. do you understand the margin difference between launching a rocket and owning a monopolistic optical supply chain? #rklb #spaceeconomy #defense #investing #deeptech #stockmarket #alpha #techtrends

@SoveyX What makes this even more remarkable: it took SpaceX roughly 5 years and $10B+ to build this. $ASTS is attempting to plug directly into 3.2 billion existing phones using just 45-60 satellites. 10,000 satellites to prove the model. 45 to challenge it.

SpaceX now has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, which is honestly an absurd engineering achievement. And no, they are not just up there freelancing and hoping for the best. They stay separated because they are placed in organized orbital lanes, constantly tracked, and able to maneuver when needed. Starlink also uses automated collision-avoidance systems, which is how a constellation this large can operate without turning low Earth orbit into a scrapyard. It’s already the closest thing in the world to a true work-anywhere network and they are just getting started.

@StockSavvyShay $VOYG is positioning inside the $185B Golden Dome program. SpaceX is the launch infrastructure. Rocket Lab is the build layer. Voyager is trying to own the defense architecture above both. Doesn’t need SpaceX to work, but the IPO accelerates everything underneath it.

Chamath says the space economy will not end with launch but entire businesses will be built on top of the backbone SpaceX is creating. That is why $RKLB matters as a builder of the infrastructure layer of space while $ASTS is targeting the connectivity layer.

@RKLBMan $75B is very doable in the IPO window if Neutron executes and the SpaceX halo holds. $100B requires Neutron flying regularly and no S-1 reality shock in May.

Do we think $RKLB could get to $75B? $100B? Macro could really tamper all of this...