Adam D. Wyden

@OtterMarket Congrats Harris. Fantastic win!

Been awhile since we found some Of the deep value we built ADW Capital around… should be interesting. finance.yahoo.com/news/adw-capit… $CODI

@FundasyInvestor Which are growing 50?

The whole “payments only go down” thing is going to be really interesting when all these Payment Processors with 15-20% internal compounding machines… start going up All of them having been repurchasing stock in the 5-15% annual repurchase range and have been growing… Some are growing 50%+ and repurchasing simultaneously the most at 15%… that one is my favorite but the 12% growers, 10% repurchases also do well from here. That’s $AAPL 2012-2015 ratios when Buffett was buying

@orrdavid Agree completely. Round tripping appreciated large positions is a real thing.

The best way to improve your long term track record is removing downside. Go through your record and study your largest 5 drawdowns and truly understand what happened. Then make an improvement. Way too many people focus on making large scores when this should be their focus.

@paulshare @Vienna13Capital @RicksCEO @orchardwealth69 @BradleyChhay What about the eps accretion from paying off debt or the effect on ev/ ebitda?

@Adam_Wyden @Vienna13Capital @RicksCEO @orchardwealth69 @BradleyChhay I hear the CEO say $65offer, wants $75MM-$85MM, less the debt, $40MM net and could buy back 12% of company net. Math makes sense with 12% net of RE debt.

in addition to the asset view perspective mentioned below, $RICK is also trading below the "no growth" valuation from an earnings power perspective: i.e. current fcf level capitalized is higher then mcap. so any growth in fcf (ever) comes for free at current levels

@paulshare @Vienna13Capital @RicksCEO @orchardwealth69 @BradleyChhay EV improves by whole amount. Net Debt goes down by total amount of sale… so all should accrue to equity.

@Adam_Wyden @Vienna13Capital @RicksCEO @orchardwealth69 @BradleyChhay Less the Land Debt of $35MM which would have to be repaid if sold.

@sidecarcap $par

When management makes a move that hurts short-term results but boosts long-term value, the market often overreacts. The stock tanks. And intrinsic value rises. It’s the best of both worlds.

@oraclealexx @RicksCEO @ValueHunter7 @BTaylorUSA @orchardwealth69 M&A works great if the clubs comp positively and can be improved (improve mix). If Co. can drive higher margins thru operational efficiencies (lower headcount) and positive SSS AND we get M&A we could get a repeat of 2022. Ironically people also want to sell when their SSS are +

@RicksCEO @ValueHunter7 @Adam_Wyden @BTaylorUSA @orchardwealth69 Definitely nice to see the acquisitions. Sadly, I’m not sure the market ever rewards club acquisitions. Seems BMB good news correlated with multiple expansion historically, which is strange. At least you were able to use some equity at higher stock prices a few years ago.

$rick is trading less than value of RE/ PP&E (412.6m gross). Given the big locations in big cities my guess is the market value of this could be > 600 mm. RCI has total debt of ~200mm leaving net RE of 400mm. curr. mkt cap is 308 mm. @RicksCEO @BTaylorUSA @orchardwealth69

@WBPetersen @RicksCEO @BTaylorUSA @orchardwealth69 SSS in the clubs have been flattish.. They are closing BMB units which has been driving the lion share of negative revenues. Huge RE value in BMB too. New clubs purchased / open/ central city should start ramping soon too. Lines should cross on rev by end of year IMO. $rick

@RicksCEO Market doesn’t care about tariffs anymore. BBB signed. How much stock are we buying tomorrow ? What clubs are we buying? $rick

@oraclealexx @qlixontop @RicksCEO I think $rick has been public since 1995 or smthg. The opty to trade bmb/ re for buyback in future earnings diwn here is tremendous or more m&a…..

@Adam_Wyden @qlixontop @RicksCEO Appears so…..they have $95m in land and $225m (before depreciation) in buildings on the balance sheet. Obviously NYC and Tootsies have a decade of appreciation since then. And they’ve own some properties since the 90s.

@EightTrack180 @Restructuring__ Yes and this is on top of 70k a kid in tuition and all the other extras like tutors , sports , and Nannies etc. Then you pay a 60 pct effective tax rate to live there….

People always talk about cost of housing in New York, but education is just as bad if not worse Assuming two kids in private school, you are looking at ~$400k of annual income just to put them through school Overall, this results in ~$5mm of income just to reach high school graduation Make sure you do this math if you want to have a family in the city

@ACapitalLP @qlixontop @marginofdanger @RicksCEO You said it, i didn’t….

@oraclealexx @qlixontop @RicksCEO For sure they do. And the appraisals are often far less than true market value.

@Adam_Wyden @qlixontop @RicksCEO Wouldn’t RE be appraised around $300m? RCI tends to lend against all RE and usually the loans are done at 65% LTV. In 2024 10K, they had $151m in RE secured loans. Does RCI have RE with no debt against it?

@qlixontop @marginofdanger @RicksCEO @BradleyChhay @itsmarkmoran @RicksCEO @Reardon_Dean1 Also got a few airplanes , cars, and other stuff. Maybe they will do something about turning those assets into income / less shares. This would be the moment.

@qlixontop @marginofdanger @RicksCEO Bmb RE worth close to 100 (assets making zero). Re held for sale I think co. said ~30. Tootsies worth 125? Ricks nyc 50? That’s 300 right there. Scarlett’s ? 50+ other clubs many are in major metro areas. This thing is worth more dead than alive now. $rick Ask @RicksCEO

@JerryCap What about if you have assets offshore like HF/PE… pretty sure you pay zero upon sale and pay dividend/ cap gains rate on distros only

NYC is the worst place in North America to realize long-term capital gains. Canada is similar to Florida & Texas. And this is before the communist arrives in NYC.