Arend Clahsen
5.8K posts
@AClahsen
Redacteur Financiële Markten bij het FD, centrale banken. Eerder Bouw, Infra, Monetair, Macro, Beleggen. Beeld = verkeersbrug bij Moerdijk 1937.
Fed research suggests the inflation engine may be running differently across advanced economies since the pandemic: 1/ More categories continue to see price growth above 3%, with broad-based wage growth in services appearing to be a key driver 2/ Even categories with flat or falling prices aren't pulling the overall number down the way they used to 3/ Pre-pandemic models consistently underpredict current inflation, suggesting the relationship between price dispersion and aggregate inflation may have shifted federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…
This chart is the most important warning nobody's talking about. Global oil in transit just fell off a cliff. That dark blue line? It collapsed in March 2026. From 1,700 million barrels in transit to 1,430. The largest single drop ever recorded. But look at the red line. OECD Europe + Americas commercial crude stocks? Still rising. How is that possible? Because the shock hasn't arrived yet. The West is still burning through the oil that was already at sea when Hormuz closed. Ships that left the Gulf weeks ago are still delivering. The pipeline of tankers is still trickling in. But that blue line tells you the pipeline is almost empty. Mid-April for Europe. May for the US. When those last tankers dock there's nothing behind them and the red line starts falling. The West thinks it has time because the shelves still look full. They don't see the empty trucks on the highway. 🚨Don't miss the full analysis in my latest article, link👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…
Paper Brent is at $109. Physical Brent is at $141. Physical is the price if you need oil now. Paper is the price if delivery can wait until June. However you look at the Middle East, this will not be fixed in a few weeks. Oil is going far higher than consensus thinks.
