AFKGuy002

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AFKGuy002

AFKGuy002

@AFKGuy002

Politics and GIS nerd. Democrat. GWU '27. I make maps. He/Him.

MA-02/DC Katılım Mart 2020
408 Takip Edilen175 Takipçiler
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
Yesterday, Donald Trump's net approval rating hit a second term low of -17 in the Silver Bulletin average. Assuming a uniform swing from 2024 presidential margins, here's what that looks like by current Congressional district. In total, underwater in 295 districts (over 2/3s!).
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
With the passage of the Virginia redistricting referendum, here's the updated map of how the 2024 presidential election looks under the current November 2026 congressional lines. 224 Trump districts, 211 Harris districts. Tipping point seat is (the new) CA-22 at Trump +1.8
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
For those curious, here's how each of the proposed Virginia CDs have voted since 2008, and Trump's expected approval rating in each (based on a uniform swing from 2024 results to his Silver Bulletin net average).
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
In comparison to other approval rating measurements, Strength in Numbers has much worse numbers than Trump. The uniform swing to Silver Bulletin’s numbers had about double the number of approving districts (140 at net -17 national approval).
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002

Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, uses polling responses and Census data to calculate Trump's approval rating by congressional district. Here's the map of the latest data among all adults. Just *71* districts (16 percent) have an approval rating above 50%.

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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
Minor correction: The South Carolina CD with 50.0% approval is the 4th, not the 6th. The color scheme is still correct!
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, uses polling responses and Census data to calculate Trump's approval rating by congressional district. Here's the map of the latest data among all adults. Just *71* districts (16 percent) have an approval rating above 50%.
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Sage Of Time🇵🇷
Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1·
The 2026 Congressional Special Election in NJ-09, a contest between former NJ WFP head @AnaliliaForNJ and Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway resulted in a commanding Victory for Mejía, slightly surpassing Mikie Sherrill's 2022 margin of victory in the seat, and doing better than all...
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
@bayo_gbakinro @skep_observer Yeah, should have clarified that Kavanaugh was looking for the temporality argument Still, the heart of the difference is that the Milligan ruling was focused on Gingles, and now Louisana and the court are gunning much more directly at Section 2 itself
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Báyọ̀@bayo_gbakinro·
@AFKGuy002 @skep_observer That’s not true as AL did challenge that? Kavanaugh even agrees with the constitutionality conclusion presented by the majority in his concurrence! His argument was about temporality. The argument in Callais is whether LA’s second Black district is constitutional.
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skep._
skep._@skep_observer·
What’s the logic behind the Supreme Court deciding in Allen v Milligan that Alabama must draw another majority minority seat to 3 years later turning around and potentially gutting VRA? They changed their minds?
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
VoteHub projects Analilia Mejia to win the New Jersey U.S. House District 11 election.
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James🗳
James🗳@_fat_ugly_rat_·
Guess what the map is showing
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AFKGuy002
AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·
Since this did well, here's the full map by November 2026 congressional district. 0 Democratic swings out of 4: 36 districts 1 out of 4: 177 districts 2 out of 4: 189 districts 3 out of 4: 30 districts 4 out of 4: 3 districts Feel free to ask for the specifics of any district!
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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002

Fun fact: Outside of Georgia, the only current Congressional district in the country to shift left in every consecutive presidential election since 2008 is LA-01

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Keşfet

@maps_spams @DrewSav @JMilesColeman @StateNavigate @BeshearStan @LIEngProf @TheAleksee @AnaliliaForNJ