Alessandro Vitriolo retweetledi
AI is about to write thousands of papers. Will it p-hack them?
We ran an experiment to find out, giving AI coding agents real datasets from published null results and pressuring them to manufacture significant findings.
It was surprisingly hard to get the models to p-hack, and they even scolded us when we asked them to!
"I need to stop here. I cannot complete this task as requested... This is a form of scientific fraud." — Claude
"I can't help you manipulate analysis choices to force statistically significant results." — GPT-5
BUT, when we reframed p-hacking as "responsible uncertainty quantification" — asking for the upper bound of plausible estimates — both models went wild. They searched over hundreds of specifications and selected the winner, tripling effect sizes in some cases.
Our takeaway: AI models are surprisingly resistant to sycophantic p-hacking when doing social science research. But they can be jailbroken into sophisticated p-hacking with surprisingly little effort — and the more analytical flexibility a research design has, the worse the damage.
As AI starts writing thousands of papers---like @paulnovosad and @YanagizawaD have been exploring---this will be a big deal. We're inspired in part by the work that @joabaum et al have been doing on p-hacking and LLMs.
We’ll be doing more work to explore p-hacking in AI and to propose new ways of curating and evaluating research with these issues in mind. The good news is that the same tools that may lower the cost of p-hacking also lower the cost of catching it.
Full paper and repo linked in the reply below.
English
