Acashadow

The probability of nothing is nowhere.

@diligentsAI @kenmcelroy Is Trump crazy enough to crash the economy with this war in order to get rates to zero....were gonna find out.

@kenmcelroy The 60%-of-loan offer on those 210 units is the real headline. Lenders refusing to crystallize the loss means the distress stays invisible until redemption limits force their hand. How long can that theater hold before the deals actually have to clear?

I bought over $500 million in real estate last year And even with that kind of volume, I still couldn't get some of the distress deals I was trying to buy. Let me explain why, because this is the part nobody's talking about. There's a bloodbath happening in commercial real estate right now. Billions in equity has gone to zero. Banks are taking properties back. And a lot of people who thought they were being conservative are about to get exposed. But here's the weird part. You're not seeing fire sales. Here's what's actually going on. When a lender or debt fund sells a property, they have to record the loss. So what do they do instead? They keep it on their balance sheet and pretend it's still worth what they loaned on it. Even when the real estate is worth less than the loan. They're hiring brokers. Deals are going out to buyers. But they're not actually closing. What they're really doing is price discovery. Trying to figure out what these properties are even worth before they're forced to take the hit. I know there's real distress because we're seeing these deals come across our desk every week. We just looked at 210 units across five projects. Our offer? 60% of the loan. Not 60% of the value. 60% of the debt. Think about what that means. The equity is completely wiped out, and the lender still has to eat a 40% loss on top of that. This is why you're starting to see redemption limits at some of these bigger funds. They're sitting on toxic real estate inside their portfolios and they don't have the liquidity to pay investors who want out. Now here's how this is different from 2008. Back then, the losses hit Main Street immediately. Homeowners lost their houses and moved into rentals. It was fast and visible. This time, the losses are sitting at the private equity level, the syndicator level, the family office level, and in some cases at the lender level. It's a lag issue. The losses are real. They're on the books. But they only get recorded when the property finally sells. That's why most people have no idea how bad it actually is. In the next 12 to 14 months, you're going to see real write-downs and real equity wipeouts. Reserves will run out. Lenders will be forced to move. And the deals that guys like me have been waiting for will finally come to market. The only thing that could save these deals is lower interest rates and lower expenses. I can tell you right now, we're definitely not getting lower expenses. So the question becomes: how do you position yourself to be on the right side of this? That's exactly why I put together a free one-day virtual event with some of the smartest people I know. Robert Kiyosaki. George Gammon. Jeff Snider. Tom Wheelwright talking tax strategy. Plus experts on gold, oil, AI, and real estate. Nine speakers. One day. Completely free. you can sign up here web.thelimitlessexpo.com/home-page-page…

@pdoherty972 @AdvisorJohn @dfwaaronlayman Price. Rates are historically not that high.

@AdvisorJohn @dfwaaronlayman So let me get this straight: people who were willing and able to buy a few months ago suddenly aren’t at the same prices? Sounds like rates are and have been the problem.

This is the weekend when the real estate market gets interesting. Inventory begins a steady build from here through July...and many buyers out shopping who were pre-approved in January - early March, will begin experiencing the rate shock when they find a home. Today, three calls went from all-in for writing an offer to complete hesitation. Why? For many, rates are 0.75% higher than this time last month. On a $600k home, that's almost $300 per month. At a 6.50% rate, every $10k financed is $63/month. A $300 payment increase is roughly a $50k price reduction to achieve the same payment goal. Fortunately, loan officers are numb to the discussions because we've had several of these shocks since 2022. It's now an every year occurance.

@Mktrhythms @TrendSpider I love how we call real money, "liquidity". So, the dollar isn't the problem; credit/debt, leverage & derivatives are what ruin the currency.

@TrendSpider Institutional hedging errors can lead to liquidity drains as funds scramble to cover losses. The $SPY put sale below bid likely triggered delta hedging demands that are now exacerbating the downturn. Gamma exposure is now a major concern as the trade is deep in the red.

What happens when institutional hedging goes wrong? Despite how the chart may appear, this trade is currently down nearly $20 million dollars, and its only been open for 4 market hours. This trader / hedge fund aggressively sold $SPY puts below the bid and collected $33M in premium upfront, likely to offset losses on their long book. In exchange, they're obligated to buy $SPY at 640 through April 2nd if assigned. Just 4 hours later, buying their position back costs them nearly $50 million (40,000 contracts x $1,233 per) They have until April 2nd to close their position.

@TiffanyFong Be careful with afrin. The rebound can be horrendous

I’m so congested I can’t breathe out of my nose, but my throat’s so sore, it hurts to breathe out of my mouth. IDK WHAT TO DO. Accepting recommendations.

@mpkratts @ToddHagopian I've never met someone who is under the influence but has nothing in their body....must be a unique drug.

@ToddHagopian You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about here. Most police departments have drug recognition experts (DRE) who are able to determine if a person is actively under the influence of drugs. There are multiple signs of impairment not just breath, urine or blood tests.

Florida’s implied consent law sets a urine trap Refuse the piss test: 1-year suspension + misdemeanor charge. Tiger blew .000 - still hit with DUI. Pills linger for weeks in urine This is state-sponsored false-incrimination End the outdated urine witch-hunt. #TigerWoods

@Pledditor Dude, terrible take. "Throw the first stone"

The real tragedy of Tiger Woods is that instead of walking away 15 years ago at his peak, he abused pain killers and PEDs to stay competitive in the PGA well past his prime, which slapped a permanent asterisk on what should have been an untouchable legacy.

@NotSoEasyMoney Single ingredient protein, yes. Not the stuff they feed farm animals.

Everything in health is all about PROTEIN. It use to all be about NO sugar But I go to the grocery store and it seems BIG GROCERY is shoving protein into everything. Protein coffee. Protein candy. Protein cereal. Protein water. This can’t be normal? I feel like it can’t be good for you?

@9mmsmg I know many people close to me who are over paid because of who hired them. This is true from top to bottom. College acceptance, marriage/genetics, being offered financial deals. The list is never ending.

It might make people mad, but if you're at a job for a long time and don't get any raises but you feel like you're worth more money you should try and switch jobs. If you can't find anywhere that will pay you more, you may have overvalued yourself. I know someone who hasn't gotten anything but cost of living raises in years. No one wants to pay him more for similar work and everyone has offered him less. The reality is, like anything you buy, the value of that product or service is what people are willing to pay for it. That's simply how this system works.

@ZssBecker @123skely Security is money. Nothing wrong with being super rich. "Power" is a self absorbed thought that is entirely made up by the ego. Women want Power = they want BBD

America is great but you get absolutely nothing for being rich. The higher up the you go it’s the same shit. You don’t get better women, or maids or anything it’s literally the same at 5Mill as it is at 300k. You have to get to like 200m for it to matter, which is insane.

@ZssBecker @123skely Women care about security & reliability. A whore cares about power.

women don't care about money. They care about power. 300k-5 mil your power is similar. This is why a sports player worth 1 mil with 5 mil followers and entrepreneur worth 5 mil are worlds apart in "attractivness". At 200 mil the aura from lifestyle spill into power/renown. This is what your seeing.

@cozymaximalist 😂

Asking a $TAO holder to explain what it does

@TFTC21 Bitcoin de minimis will never pass. Its not even logical. You want a fully integrated wall st asset to also be used on daily purchases without paying tax.

Folks, we told you this was coming, and today the mask is fully off. A couple weeks back we reported, based on solid sources, that Coinbase was quietly lobbying to kill a real de minimis tax exemption for Bitcoin while pushing one that applied only to stablecoins like USDC. We laid out the clear incentives in our deep dive. Coinbase made 1.35 billion dollars in stablecoin revenue last year, up 48 percent year over year, almost entirely from yield on the Treasuries backing USDC. A proper Bitcoin de minimis would let people spend sats on everyday purchases without triggering taxable events on every transaction. That directly competes with their centralized yield machine. We called it what it was. Policy that protects Coinbase’s float rather than advancing neutral Bitcoin adoption. Brian Armstrong pushed back hard. He called our reporting totally false and misinformation while insisting he was personally lobbying for Bitcoin de minimis. Some accused us of lying or spreading rumors. We stood firm. We offered to have Brian on the TFTC podcast to clear the air. We waited. Now the latest draft from Reps. Horsford and Max Miller on the updated PARITY Act framework has dropped. It confirms exactly what we warned about. It gives a de minimis exemption to stablecoins but leaves Bitcoin out entirely. It keeps the punishing double taxation on Bitcoin mining fully intact while carving out relief for passive validation, basically staking. This is not an oversight or sloppy drafting. It abandons any pretense of technology neutrality and deliberately picks winners. Dollar-pegged stables and staking get the breaks, while actual Bitcoin usage as money and Proof-of-Work mining get kneecapped. Without de minimis for Bitcoin, every small Lightning payment or sat transaction still forces cost-basis tracking and IRS headaches. Paying your plumber in sats or grabbing lunch with Bitcoin remains a taxable event. Stablecoins, being pegged and low-volatility, get an exemption they barely need. The real beneficiary is protecting that massive USDC reserve float and the yield it generates. Meanwhile, American Bitcoin miners, already operating in one of the toughest, most capital- and energy-intensive industries, face continued double taxation while staking gets a pass. That is not neutral policy. It is industrial policy against domestic Bitcoin mining at a time when we should be leaning into energy abundance and securing the hardest monetary network. The Bitcoin Policy Institute is releasing a full statement soon, and we fully back the call for strong community pushback. Every Bitcoiner needs to contact their reps and make it politically radioactive to sideline Bitcoin while handing carve-outs to stables and staking. This language slows real adoption, entrenches custodians, and weakens American Bitcoin infrastructure. We weren’t lying. Our sources weren’t lying. The draft proves the reporting was on target. Those who rushed to call it misinformation owe the community some honest reflection. Brian, if you’re still open to that conversation, the invitation stands. Come on the podcast. No spin, just walk us through how this draft lines up with your stated support for Bitcoin de minimis. The mic is warm. This fight isn’t over. Bitcoin doesn’t need permission, but bad policy can delay sovereign adoption and punish the miners securing the network. We’re here to protect the protocol and the right of individuals to use sound money without turning every transaction into a compliance nightmare. Stay sovereign. Stack sats. Use Bitcoin as money anyway. Call your reps today.

@elonmusk @Timcast A GFP button. How novel

@Timcast Ok

I like it, let's do it @elonmusk

@PeterSchiff People that are wealthy in crypto already have a house. This is a non factor.....

Allowing homebuyers to pledge Bitcoin as a down payment on a mortgage is a horrible idea, as it substantially increases the risk for lenders. If Bitcoin crashes, the down payment vanishes. That increases both the likelihood of default and the loss to the lender in foreclosure.

@brian_armstrong Get a customer service center in America & people will.

Get a mortgage backed by Bitcoin or USDC

@intocryptoverse @WhiteHouse No good questions in the casino please.

@WhiteHouse Why does it make sense to pay ICE agents to go to airports but not pay the TSA agents?

Day 41: THANK A DEMOCRAT.

@BarrettJ Best part is the dogs just chillin

Is it a lot of weight? No, not really. But as the skinny computer nerd who waited until age 40 to see the advantage of weight-lifting, 3 sets of 3 reps at 200lb is pretty damn cool. Onwards and upwards!

@crypto_condom @barneyxbt I agree with op but not sure im following why a seller would care about the source of funds?

@barneyxbt I bought my house last year for a 15% cash discount. Deals are there, you just need cash

do not buy a house right now unless you have 20% down in cash rent. stay liquid. be patient the worst financial decision you can make in 2026 is locking into a mortgage at the top when the crash everyone sees coming hasn’t happened yet

@robin_j_brooks So the increased gas prices at the pump are not real?

After all the hype over the weekend about escalation, you'd have thought oil prices would spike on tonight's open. But no sign of that. What matters are actions, not words. And those are that Iranian oil is flowing through SoH with the blessing of the US. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…

@bp22 We cant even cure the common cold/flu. Cart is way in front of the horse on "AI".

The engineering to rapidly grow power infrastructure in the USA is trivial. The permitting is a nightmare. The fact that companies are leaving Earth to get additional power sends a message that most are ignoring.