Alexander Bick

The destruction of DOD’s Office Net Assessment is an enormous mistake. This was a little-known but enormously consequential fifty year-old institution that actually thought long-term. It helped us win the Cold War, grasped the China challenge early, and figured out revolutions in warfare. The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below). When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did. Ending it is another unforced error.

"We received no indication that the Russians were interested in anything short of a basic capitulation of Ukraine." Biden did not achieve a negotiated conclusion to the war in Ukraine because Russia fundamentally did not want one, argues @Alexander_Bick zurl.co/rwklR

Quick thoughts from me on Syria and the lessons for how we think about strategic surprise. A warm thanks to the excellent team @EngelsbergIdeas for the opportunity.

This was a fantastic exercise to explore the complexities of a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Bravo to my students, and thanks to Mark Christopher @ACGlobalChina, Ryan Laine @PoliticsUVA, and the @UVABatten team for their invaluable assistance.

notre dame cathedral filled with everyone who helped restore the building over the last five years:

@EvansRyan202 @TXNatSecReview Great idea

I'm thinking about organizing a roundtable in @TXNatSecReview on the impact - scholarly and policy - of James C. Scott. If you're interested in getting involved or encouraging us, send a note to editorial (at) TNSR (dot) org

Good discussion on the past and future of the war in Ukraine with @HalBrands and @AKendallTaylor, hosted by the ever-thoughtful @EvansRyan202: warontherocks.com/2024/05/ukrain…

This was an unusual if not unique case. Still, it's critical to work through what we got right and what we got wrong. A luxury in good times, in a more contested and uncertain world planning for the worst will be a competitive advantage for those who do it best.

In crises leaders often find themselves in react mode. The Tiger Team helped ensure senior leadership across the U.S. government was ready well before the first Russian missiles and tanks crossed the border. politico.com/news/magazine/…

Grateful to @HalBrands and @JHUPress for the opportunity to document and reflect on my experience leading the "Tiger Team" that planned the U.S. response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022: press.jhu.edu/books/title/53…

So many good books have arrived since I‘m back in the office! @mkimmage @SPlokhy @DrJadeMcGlynn @HalBrands @lukeharding1968 @ChristopherJM @yarotrof @peterpomeranzev

@oliverwkim Fascinating. And don’t forget his 1977 book, “The Passions and the Interests,” still one of the most probing explorations of the history of economic thought. press.princeton.edu/books/paperbac…

In my post, I go into greater detail on Hirschman’s ideas, and their relation to modern development economics. His approach of “petite idées”, informed by empirical observation, seems the model for a clear-eyed way of thinking about development. global-developments.org/p/the-real-dev…

Only when the Vichy police started asking q about Hirschman himself did he make his discreet exit. Hirschman hiked across the Pyrenees, made his way to Lisbon, and boarded a ship to America—where he would soon start a research fellowship at UC Berkeley.

A great conversation with @SAISHopkins Jim Steinberg and others @Miller_Center millercenter.org/news-events/ev…

@DLNoorlander Maybe the older stuff by Kernkamp on Blommaert, or Lichtenberg on Usselincx?

Gov. Stuyvesant seized New Sweden in 1655. The Dutch were competing and sometimes clashing with Swedes in West Africa in the same decade. Anyone know of any research/writing that covers both simultaneously? Or both as part of the same civil war in the Dutch West India Company?

Five books that help understand the Russo-Ukrainian crisis and the country and people in the middle of it. fivebooks.com/best-books/rus…

@DLNoorlander Great book

Got a used book on the forts and castles of Ghana and found this note inside:

@RoperLou @deborah_hamer I’m not sure it has to be one way: some merchants, in some sectors, wanted state support to enable commercial gain; at the same time, nobles and aligned regents (at least in the WIC) wanted to harness private capital and colonial enthusiasm to undermine Spain. It was symbiotic