Manideep

🏸 Even after all these years, it's such a thing of joy to see the golden generation of women's singles still fighting it out with the young guns. Nozomi Okuhara, Ratchanok Intanon and PV Sindhu are all on the other side of 30, but keep going through the grind. Good stuff.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲! 𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆? Nifty made a high of 26371 in January post the Indo-US trade deal, and has since then fallen 4000 points to 22450 as of yesterday. Since Sept 2024 I have used Fibonacci retracement levels to gauge the quantum of dead cat bounces. As you can see in the chart below, 23.6% retracement comes at 23381, 38.2% at 23,952, 50% at 24414, 61.8% at 24876. No market goes up or down in a straight line and counter trend rallies and falls are a given in any scenario. However, this time it's different. 1. Three trading holidays coming up. 2. FY closure to bring in tax loss harvesting and NAV adjustments. 3. Lastly, the world is amidst a war. Under normal circumstances I would expect the counter trend to be over between 38.2% & 50%, i.e in the band between 23952—24414. But with the world dancing around the updates of US & Iran, we will have to take everything one day at a time. If the pause genuinely lasts 5 days and beyond, and Hormuz does open up, even if selectively, then the rally will have legs. However, if Trump continues to play ping-pong, then we revisit yesterday's low and go down even more. Whatever be the case, wherever the bounce ends, in the medium term India's fundamentals have only deteriorated and going forward in 2026 we most likely see lower levels, but we do have to factor in sharp oversold bounces in between. A better way to gauge the markets remains the price of oil — Brent up Nifty down Brent down Nifty up If the counter trend rally doesn't even cross 23% retracement, then we have a genuine problem to contend with. PS — Take every analysis, be it mine or any others, with a heaping spoon of salt. The war/pause situation is practically changing every hour.