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Andrew
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Andrew
@AndrewPWeis
Former astronomer, looking to apply data science skills to public policy problems. Particularly interested in political data, energy policy. @UChicago MPP '20
Katılım Mart 2020
196 Takip Edilen140 Takipçiler
@hunterbaker @Yellow_Dog1959 @JamesAGagliano @davidaxelrod As for Roe...Burger switched his vote for strategic reasons. As the chief justice, he got to assign the decision author...if he was in the majority. He saw how the vote came out, and voted with the majority to assign it to Blackmun. Kept it away from ultra-left William Douglas.
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@hunterbaker @Yellow_Dog1959 @JamesAGagliano @davidaxelrod upholding the death penalty, the Bush extraordinary rendition regime, restricting the commerce clause, allowing states to opt out of Medicaid expansion, upholding partisan gerrymandering, unequal funding of education (see Rodriguez 1973)....some liberal court /s.
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I remember when I worked at CNN and saw @davidaxelrod in the green room. Asked a question that continues to befuddle me. Never got a satisfying response. Here goes again: During entire SCOTUS history, when has there EVER been a liberal justice — appointed by a Democrat POTUS — considered to be a “swing vote,” in the tradition of a Justice Anthony Kennedy. So rare to see the three liberal justices on the current court now EVER act as a “swing vote.”
And yet, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, ACB, and Chief Justice Roberts (MANY TIMES) side with the liberal wing. Why? Think that Sotomayor or Kagan or KBJ would EVER take a *consequential position not aligned with their preferred ideology? Serious question. Why are “swing votes” almost always right to left? 🤔
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@Yellow_Dog1959 @JamesAGagliano @hunterbaker @davidaxelrod Last time there was a 5-4 liberal majority: 1969. Nixon appointed Burger, Blackmun, Powell, Rehnquist in his first term, and SCOTUS has a conservative majority ever since.
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@JamesAGagliano @hunterbaker @davidaxelrod When was the last time we had a 5-4 liberal majority?
Whenever it was, it was because Republican appointees moved left.
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@WakeUp2Politics I'd say Biden/Harris swap succeeded in one way--saving Dems downballot. Without the candidate switch, Republicans would probably have 57 senators right now instead of 53.
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Candidate swaps that failed: Biden/Harris 2024. Ryan/Keyes IL SEN 2004 (running against Obama). Eagleton/Shriver Dem VP 1972.
Candidate swaps that worked: Torricelli/Lautenberg NJ SEN 2002. And Grunseth/Carlson MN GOV 1990.
I talked to Carlson about how it went down…
Gabe Fleisher@WakeUp2Politics
NEW: Not many people can say they pulled off a successful candidate swap. I talked to one of them. Arne Carlson, now 91 years old, was elected governor of Minnesota in 1990 as a last-minute replacement nominee. Here’s his advice for Democrats in Maine: wakeuptopolitics.com/p/the-art-of-t…
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Say what you will, but the establishment vets candidates.
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@CJS_III @fawfulfan True. Though W's parents both made it past 90, and W doesn't seem to have any real health problems, so there's a good chance he makes it to 90 as well.
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@fawfulfan Yeah the "10-15" here is the problem, but by the 2036 election Biden would be 93 while Clinton, W, and Trump would be 90. Possible we have a 2-term president with only Obama alive among ex-pres
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The only living former president *of the current former presidents*. It's very, very likely the winner of the 2028 presidential election will be alive 10-15 years from now.
Niles Francis@NilesGApol
I feel like no one is talking about this but there’s a very realistic chance Obama is the only living former president in the next 10-15 years
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@celeste43_ @MattBoxer94 Yea I'm also not sure a moderate beats Katko; he was just quite popular and that seat (or its successor) only flipped in 2024.
Idk about NE-02. Bacon seems to have an annoying habit of doing *just* enough to eke out a win. Beat Eastman twice, then beat moderate Vargas twice.
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@AndrewPWeis @MattBoxer94 Balter in NY agaisnt Katko (not sure a moderate wins tbh) and Eastman in NE against bacon imo the bigger fumble
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Flipping swing districts is not easy. 3 more left wing candidates blew bluer seats in that environment
ed 🇺🇸@ed_dems
Haley did not flip the seat, the environment did A part of the realignment of suburban voters lurching towards democrats, and it’s disingenuous to suggest that makes her a stronger candidate
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Andrew retweetledi
In Summer 1776, George Washington was 44 years old, Alexander Hamilton was 21, James Madison was 25, Thomas Jefferson was 33, John Adams was 40, James Monroe was 18, Aaron Burr was 20, John Hancock was 39, & Andrew Jackson (though not a Founder) was 9. Benjamin Franklin was 70.
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@Sjmurphy1989 @kazu_iv @adammcginnis Extremes never deliver...lmao look around you. Republicans consistently deliver on their agenda for their voters (not for the rest of America). They are extreme but get things done. Meanwhile, Democratic moderates tiptoe around, scared of their own shadow, do nothing, then lose.
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@kazu_iv @adammcginnis That’s a lot of words for being so wrong. Moderates are boring but they get things done. Extremes are exciting but never deliver
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Not running legit primary candidates against Cory Booker, Chris Coons, Mark Warner & Jack Reed is a missed opportunity
Joe@electionsjoe
WOW. Holy shit. Julie Gonzales is only 6 points below Hickenlooper now.
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@Sjmurphy1989 @adammcginnis You realize that the 4 mentioned are in safe blue states, right?
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@bummerlog @jake_jmc20985 @bdquinn @SpecialPuppy1 That's the difference between Manchin and his predecessor, Robert Byrd. Byrd was far from perfect, but he cared about his constituents and got tons of federal money for West Virginia. But Manchin was an arrogant grandstander who cared only about himself.
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@jake_jmc20985 @bdquinn @SpecialPuppy1 Manchin sucked because he could have gotten anything he wanted for the people in West Virginia in exchange for his support on legislation. He could have actually helped the people he represented in enormous ways but all he wanted was to make every bill smaller and less impactful.
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Yeah, the real problem for Democrats after 2020 was their failure to convert on North Carolina and Maine that year. The made the marginal Senate votes Manchin (who represented a state Trump won 2:1) and Sinema (who was just weird) instead of, like, Mark Warner.
Carl@HistoryBoomer
Joe Manchin hate by Democrats was always so weird. I have friends who are still glad he's gone, even though he voted 90% with Dems, and now he's been replaced by a hard-core Republican. 90% is better than 0%!
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@LurkerBored @BlueCheese608 @TheAleksee @CautiousLefty I'm not sure anyone knows. I've asked and I've wondered the same thing. Cautious Lefty has not posted anything since this:
x.com/CautiousLefty/…
Political Pragmatist@CautiousLefty
It's all hopeless. It's always been hopeless.
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Bro! At 34 this might be the largest swing in the state @TheAleksee We are so back. Just heartbroken that @CautiousLefty is not here to celebrate with us.
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Democrats could make it a bigger story if they wanted to. But they're sleeping and going high, as usual.
sam@sam_d_1995
it should probably be a bigger story that there was a normal bipartisan America 250 organization but then Trump decided to launch his own competing right wing grift version and ruined everything
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Andrew retweetledi
I am genuinely so upset about this. I remember my parents telling me how cool and unifying the bicentennial was, and I even collected the special quarters as a kid
now, Trump ruined my chance to experience something similar and turned the entire thing into trashy MAGAslop.
sam@sam_d_1995
it should probably be a bigger story that there was a normal bipartisan America 250 organization but then Trump decided to launch his own competing right wing grift version and ruined everything
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Andrew retweetledi
Model really does not love the Senate polling for Democrats. The GOP's odds of winning the chamber continue to inch upwards since the Iran ceasefire. Now at 61%.
Can't call this a tossup any longer. Fluctuation is normal but Dems have to do more to win.
theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket…
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Andrew retweetledi
The presumption that every elected Democrat is going to have to issue a statement one way or another on Darializa Avila Chevalier while no one ever asks how a JD Vance or Marco Rubio campaign in 2028 would handle Randy Fine really gives the game away on how the cards are stacked.
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Andrew retweetledi
Republicans have seen a noticeably stronger run of generic ballot polling in recent weeks.
-From May 5 to May 28, 13 of 28 polls showed Democrats leading by 7 points or more.
-From May 28 to June 18, just 1 of 20 polls has shown a Democratic lead of that size.
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Andrew retweetledi
It's over. Nightmare scenario is here.
NewsWire@NewsWire_US
Justice Department Approves Paramount's Acquisition of Warner Bros. — Politico
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