Andy May

How much does the sun affect climate, relative to CO2? Stefani on the Sun vs. CO2 as climate drivers andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/03/02/ste… via @Andy_May_Writer

@apsteffejr Like many people in the "consensus" he seems to prefer models and textbook physics to data and observations. To that crowd, the model is the truth, and any contrary data is wrong or irrelevant.

Andy, I just saw your post, and the back and forth you had with Nick Stokes. My problem with Stokes (aside from presuming to lecture everyone on the principles of physics) is he appears to confuse mathematics and nature. As you know, 'boundary conditions' are a subject in the solution of differential equations. To suppose nature has boundary conditions is to project subjective mathematical idealizations on to the objective world. Besides that, when you said you had difficulty understanding his point, me too. But I think the reason is that he doesn't know as much as he thinks he does.

The ocean skin layer is not a boundary condition or infinitesimally small surface and should not be treated as such. Is the Ocean Surface a boundary condition? andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/02/27/is-… via @Andy_May_Writer

@markheidel2 I'll think about it, maybe. This subject sure has generated a lot of interest. @TomANelson

@Andy_May_Writer Andy, I've watched some of the interviews on Tom Nelson YouTube podcasts. They are models of explication and humility. Do you think you might do more like this on this particular subject?

@MikeChillit Correct, what is unsettling is that I've seen grok admit a mistake when I pressed him, and then repeat the same mistake a few weeks later. So much for machine learning!

@Andy_May_Writer If Elon and his team want to keep improving Grok, they need to refine their approach. I generally find AI useful, but it makes huge mistakes, and users have to be looking for mistakes to catch some of them. The bot's learning curve is more like a doodle.

.@Andy_May_Writer I'm getting a little pushback on this from the AI crowd. Is it generally accepted that we have just emerged from the longest SGMx in 5K years?

@MikeChillit Thanks, good to know. Yes, Usoskin is well respected in the solar world. As for Grok, I use Grok a lot, it is my favorite AI, but I've caught Grok making a lot of mistakes, you do need to be careful.

@Andy_May_Writer FWIW, Grok justs fell on its sword, admitting that Usoskin (and you) are very highly regarded. So you have good reason to pan Grok. Here is the link. grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…

@MikeChillit Link to 2007 article: aanda.org/articles/aa/ab…

@MikeChillit Here is a link to the paper. He has written a lot about this over the years, but this is his most recent list. link.springer.com/article/10.100… Using his 2007 (original list) the current maximum is the longest in over 8,000 yrs.

@MikeChillit Mike, Sorry Grok is wrong, at least according to Usoskin (2017). Not surprising, Grok is often wrong in my experience.

Here is a link to Grok's comments. May help with context. @Andy_May_Writer grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…

I just read that Michael Mann was forced to resign from U Penn due to outrageous statements about Charlie Kirk after he was killed. Here is the article. bizpacreview.com/2026/02/24/cli…

@JeffNor50595241 Probably not. DO events only occur in glacial periods. The 8.2k is probably due to a large North American lake draining suddenly into the North Atlantic. The 4.2k event is kind of a weird drought, not sure what caused it.

@Andy_May_Writer I've seen it suggested that the 8.2k Event and 4.2k Event were Dansgaard–Oeschger events or related.

Is 90% of increasing ocean heat content due to man-made greenhouse gases as claimed by the consensus and the IPCC? Efficacy of downwelling IR andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/02/23/eff… via @Andy_May_Writer

@JeffNor50595241 This post discusses the ocean heat content dirivative and how it is changing. andymaypetrophysicist.com/2022/08/22/the…

@Andy_May_Writer The article also indicates some skepticism about claims of ocean heat content change. 300 ZJ since 1960 is a big number but represents a tiny temperature change. I suspect the number is calculated from a surface forcing number taken from models but I haven't done the math yet.

@JeffNor50595241 This is a very complicated subject, to see what I've written on it, start here: andymaypetrophysicist.com/2020/11/27/oce…

@Andy_May_Writer Oh (sorry for the reply blitz) I recall reading a paper indicating that it takes about 1,000 years for surface heat to penetrate to the abyssal ocean. Scaling that to a 2,000m level suggests something more than 80 years.

@BurgessPark2 What you write is true, but not the point of my post. I was discussing the efficacy of GHG radiation versus solar radiation Watt per Watt. The increase in solar due to a reduction in clouds is a separate issue. I discuss it a bit here: andymaypetrophysicist.com/2024/12/17/cli…

@Andy_May_Writer Excellent piece But surely some of the recent ocean warming must be the result of Ceres observations of reduced global cloud cover ? They estimate an increase of 0.37W/m2 per decade over the last 45 years resulting from the reduction in earths albedo No ?

@MerijnKnibbe @ProfMickWilson @ClintelOrg No argument. But how does today compare to the past? That is the question.

@ProfMickWilson @ClintelOrg @Andy_May_Writer There are many places where, in summer, the Iceman could have walked and many places in the lower alps where Hannibal could have crossed. Today, we witness accelerating melt, worldwide. wgms.ch/data/faq/_FAQ_…

“It cannot be said that glacier fluctuations support the idea of recent anthropogenic warming”, says @Andy_May_Writer. Furthermore, there is considerable doubt in the instrumental data as well. clintel.org/glacier-fluctu… Please follow @ClintelOrg for more news on climate and climate policy. Or subscribe to our newsletter: clintel.org/newsletter/

Solar variability probably contributed to modern warming and the Little Ice Age. The Neoglacial Period andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/02/18/the… via @Andy_May_Writer

Recent glacial records do not support the idea of anthropogenic global warming. Holocene Glacier Records andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/02/13/hol… via @Andy_May_Writer

@TopAlliedAceWW1 Really interesting, thanks.

@Andy_May_Writer Have you looked at the index Paul Burgess created that combines 4 ocean cycles with solar cycles and adds a small thermalization factor for CO2, and produces a mind boggling correlation to UAH Mid Trop? He can't quite believe it himself and is looking for ppl to try to debunk it.

It's incredible that some people still claim the warming today is unprecedented, that myth was debunked years ago. Holocene Warming andymaypetrophysicist.com/2026/02/04/hol… via @Andy_May_Writer