AJG

1.2K posts

AJG

AJG

@AntJGumm

Wine, Crypto, Business & Finance, AI

Katılım Mart 2020
260 Takip Edilen96 Takipçiler
AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@Jason Will never replace Hunka Chunka .....
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@martypartymusic But in the end they are the classic gamekeeper/poachers in this scenario .... 'institutions' is largely the banks & the banking system as gateways to everything else.
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MartyParty
MartyParty@martypartymusic·
Nothing has threatened banks and fractional reserve banking in 100 years. Well now there is a better solution. Crypto. They will fight like dogs.
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MLFootball
MLFootball@MLFootball·
🚨🚨THIS IS INSANE🚨🚨 #Chiefs 29th overall pick Peter Woods purchased multiple Maserati SUVs for his mother & sister last night after he was drafted. Woods spent $200,000+ on the cars. Peter will only make 2.4 million per year after taxes. 😳😳😳
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@CernBasher @grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Tesla 'influencers' should stop telling other real shareholders how they should feel about holding stock - this isn't a cult following for everyone but a cold hard financial situation and everyone's timelines are different - expectations have been set but not yet realised.
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Cern Basher
Cern Basher@CernBasher·
Tesla and SpaceX - Should They Merge? I'm responding to @grant_melson post and his discussion with @TeslaBoomerMama - bringing it here so that more people see it and can join in on the discussion. Both companies have several "step changes" in their pipeline. For Tesla it's Robotaxi, then Optimus and perhaps Digital Optimus (btw, none of which are fully featured without Grok/Xai, and Starlink in many situations). Tesla is joined at the hip with SpaceX already. For SpaceX it's Starlink (a far bigger and more immediate opportunity than most think - just ask @aaronburnett) and Starship (SpaceX's "Robotaxi"). The cross pollination between the two companies is too numerous to name here. Then they jointly benefit from TERAFAB and the scaling that it allows - a huge quantity of chips for Optimus and for orbital data centers. If this doesn't happen Tesla will be severely chip and inference compute constrained. Only investors who are focused on the short-term worry about the potential short-term dilution that merging with SpaceX brings. The implicit assumption with this line of thinking is that SpaceX is overvalued. What happens if it's not? What happens if SpaceX is really worth a few trillion more? Again, listen to @aaronburnett, @TeslaLarry and @pbeisel. What happens if Robotaxi adds a trillion to Tesla's valuation, but SpaceX gains two trillion in the meantime? Or some other amount, but where SpaceX gains more. The problem with valuation arguments is that they are subjective. There are people that feel Tesla is massively undervalued (I put myself in that camp) and others think that SpaceX is more valuable. Reasonable people can disagree on valuation. That said, once SpaceX is a public company (and the index additions and lock-ups are behind us), then at least we will have an apples-to-apples valuation comparison - as both will be valued in the public market on the same terms. However, in my view, investors who are focused on the long-term will welcome a merger - as the opportunity for the combined company is greater than two separate entities. Just look at what Elon said this week on the Q1 earnings call when asked about TERAFAB - the challenges of making sure both sets of shareholders is slowing things down - it's a clear frustration for him. It's a massive unforced error to tie Elon's hands. Why put unnecessary hurdles in front of him in the name of protecting shareholders? These companies should merge - and probably sooner than later. Let the man build unencumbered! And for those that might think that Elon is somehow slow rolling Robotaxi so that SpaceX can acquire the company on the cheap - if you don't believe that Elon always acts in your best interests (as he's required to do), you should sell your Tesla stock and move on to another company/CEO that you trust.
Cern Basher tweet media
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson

Wanting a SpaceX merger is incompatible with believing “robotaxi will lead to the biggest step change in value in history.” @TeslaBoomerMama if you truly care for the Tesla retail community, please consider this. There are many others cheering the spacex merger as well

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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@herbertong @CernBasher The thing is Elon and Tesla is going to get there at some point in the next 5 years almost guaranteed with AV's & Humanoids ... its just investors (& Wall St) who are finding it a challenge to keep waiting for it.
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Herbert Ong
Herbert Ong@herbertong·
🚨 Tesla Robotaxi is growing, but not the way Wall Street expects! @CernBasher says Tesla is now in Dallas and Houston, but growth is limited by strict testing and safety checks. The main issue now isn’t safety, it’s convenience, like cars being too cautious or getting stuck. Elon says Robotaxi won’t matter much this year, but could be big next year. So what does “scale” really mean here? $TSLA
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MartyParty
MartyParty@martypartymusic·
Huge adoption event for @SuiNetwork @RedotPay is massive.
Stacy Muur@stacy_muur

I've been in the @SuiNetwork ecosystem long enough to watch the narrative shift from "fast L1" to "full-stack L1 for finance, AI, and payments." The @RedotPay news is a big moment for that thesis. If you missed it: SUI and USDC-Sui just went live on RedotPay, the most used crypto card in the world, with almost $400M in volume in March. In practice, SUI is now spendable anywhere Visa or Mastercard is accepted. That's 130M+ merchants worldwide. Coffee, groceries, travel, all paid with SUI or USDC-Sui. What's interesting is that RedotPay isn't using a bridged version of USDC. They're using USDC issued natively on Sui, proving their thesis of real faster settlement and lower fees that are perfectly suited for payments. Anyway, if anyone needs me, I'll be at a coffee shop testing this out.

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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@flntwd @smdcapital @DanBTC916 Also consider holding off for a future merger date would potentially overlap with a new administration in 2028 - that could make things much more difficult and so would likely need to conclude before that timeline.
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flntwd
flntwd@flntwd·
This is a long write-up but worth the read for Tesla investors who are interested in the prospect of a Tesla / SpaceX merger. @smdcapital @DanBTC916 As a former big law M&A attorney, I have been thinking about this potential transaction for many months now, trying to figure out how it would work, what the timing would be, mechanics, structure, etc. With the recent decline in TSLA stock and negative sentiment following last week’s call, many Tesla bulls (I won’t name names) are now working overtime to convince followers that a near-term merger following SpaceX’s IPO is the right path forward. Indeed, Elon seemed to be dropping some hints with his commentary about Terafab, particularly the inherent conflicts and the difficulty in parsing out rights and responsibilities between each company. And I do think Elon has had this thought in the back of his mind for the past few years, seeing the combination of his companies under a single structure as inevitable. I also think, through his actions and inactions (delays, missed deadlines, moving goal posts, divisiveness, politics, lack of enthusiasm on quarterly calls, etc.), he has kept the TSLA share price suppressed with that ultimate goal in mind. Occam’s razor. So here are the mechanics. SpaceX is expected to IPO at a $1.75-$2.0T valuation. It will have a dual-class share structure, where Elon retains the voting shares. Tesla has a single class share structure where each share has both voting and economic interests. For a near-term merger to be viable, Elon has to ensure SpaceX maintains or exceeds its IPO valuation, and Tesla valuation stays at or below current levels. Why? It is almost guaranteed that SpaceX would be the surviving entity in a merger scenario, so Elon can maintain the dual-class share structure and thus, maintain majority voting control. It is not legally possible to implement this type of structure at Tesla post-IPO, so the only way to keep it is if SpaceX is the surviving entity. And in order to convince Tesla shareholders to give up their voting rights in exchange for non-voting, economic shares in SpaceX (which is how such deals are commonly structured), SpaceX will have to offer a premium to Tesla holders — precedent is in the range of 20-40%. If Tesla is trading at a similar valuation to SpaceX, e.g., $2.0 trillion, and SpaceX has to pay a 20-40% premium to entice Tesla shareholders to approve the deal and give up their voting rights, then SpaceX shareholders would be diluted and are less likely to approve the transaction. If SpaceX is trading at $2.0 trillion and TSLA at its current $1.4 trillion market cap ($375/share), SpaceX can offer a 40% premium ($2.0 trillion valuation, $525/share, top-end of precedent) and avoid dilution. TSLA shareholders would almost certainly approve such an offer in light of current sentiment and Elon’s recent guidance (or lack thereof). Keeping the TSLA share price suppressed is the only way any near-term merger is viable in my opinion. I understand why Elon wants to combine the companies. It would significantly simplify governance and streamline his workload. And I ultimately think a combination of the two companies in the future makes sense. But the reality is, we have waited patiently for years now (with the stock trading lower today than it traded 5 years ago!), and we are finally on the cusp of a significant re-rating once robotaxi is scaled and Optimus goes into volume production. As a Tesla shareholder, I would prefer to consider a merger with SpaceX after the re-rating, when Tesla is trading at a much higher valuation. Why give it up now in the 11th hour when we’ve waited this long already? At the end of the day, what’s good for Elon isn’t necessarily good for Tesla shareholders.
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@devjoshstevens @Polymarket Is there anything technically (& economically) better than SUI - don't think so - good luck with the improvements 👍
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Josh
Josh@devjoshstevens·
This is my 3rd week as VP of Engineering DeFi at @Polymarket , and I'm going to be straight: the traction @Polymarket has seen has massively outpaced our infrastructure, and we haven't done nearly enough to scale to keep up. I hear you, and fixing this is our entire focus. We're a major company now, and we need to engineer like one. Here's exactly what we're doing: - Onchain data latency. We're working on making this near-instant so the experience is incredible. - Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant. - Transactions are getting cancelled. We understand this is one of the most frustrating issues right now, and we have a complete fix coming very soon. - Massive focus on the website to make it faster, more responsive, and with better UX. - We added observability everywhere. Proper alerting so we catch issues ourselves, market makers should not be the ones telling us something is down. That's been unacceptable, and we know it. - E2e tests throughout, starting with the CLOB, so issues get caught in CI before anything ships. - CLOBv2 is not a rewrite. It won't improve performance or stability on its own; it's an upgrade that unlocks us to move fast right after. We'll do better with communication next time. - We are rebuilding the CLOB from the ground up. Most important thing we're doing. Without it, we can't be the best DeFi exchange in the world. We know it, we're on it, it's mission critical. - Unified TypeScript SDK for all APIs, which is shipping soon. - Unified API. One WS connection for everything, with a schema that's actually readable. - New Polymarket contract in the works that unlocks things that are simply impossible on the current protocol. - New hires: Head of QA Automation, Head of Dev Tooling, Head of Internal Tooling, Head of Data Engineering. - Smaller, dedicated teams. Fewer focus points per person, clearer ownership. People do what they're good at and are accountable for it. - Working closely with customer support to give them real debugging tools so any user issue gets properly diagnosed, not lost. - Proper communication with marketing and market makers so everyone knows what's coming and when, and MM can submit feature requests with a clear path to get them into engineering and shipped. - Working with 4 security teams daily to ensure we're super secure and that funds are always safe. - Perps incoming. Brand new contracts and a backend built from scratch in Rust. We're proud of this one. - A lot of other fixes are running in parallel right now. Starting next Friday, I will be posting weekly engineering updates. I joined because I genuinely believe in what @Polymarket is trying to do. @shayne_coplan built this so the world has somewhere to go to find out what's actually going to happen, not what the media thinks, not what a pundit says, but what thousands of people are willing to put money on. But right now, our engineering isn't living up to that. We've let people down, and I'm not going to dress that up. I came here to fix it, and that's exactly what we're going to do. The next few months are going to speak for themselves. Stay with us.
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@MarioNawfal We're ever closer to the 1984 Tom Sellick film - Runaway
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AJG@AntJGumm·
@matthewclifford Because everything is short term and cans kicked down the road are someone else's problem and there's no one around at the moment who will radically shake up the system - though I've a feeling AI outcomes are going to do just that for them anyway.
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Matt Clifford
Matt Clifford@matthewclifford·
It's deeply weird that the unsustainability of our long-term fiscal position isn't a bigger part of our national conversation. We're so bad at paying attention to slow moving catastophes (cf. economic stagnation).
Matt Clifford tweet media
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AJG@AntJGumm·
@dVINLabs 2028 pop at the earliest ....
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@OndoFinance All that for 26c/token - great value altcoins RWA
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Ondo Finance
Ondo Finance@OndoFinance·
In four weeks, onchain finance lost more than $625 million across six major incidents. Through it all, Ondo remained live, bridges kept running, and assets stayed backed. A breakdown of the deliberate design and operational decisions that made it possible👇
Ondo Finance@OndoFinance

x.com/i/article/2047…

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George Stanoev
George Stanoev@georgi_stanoev·
I’ve done more work on my phone with gpt 5.5 in the last 2 hrs than all day with opus 4.7 on desktop…wtf is going on?!
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Aniket Kate
Aniket Kate@aniketpkate·
Exciting news! I have joined the world-leading team at @Mysten_Labs. I am working on distributed systems & crypto projects led by @GDanezis, @kostascrypto, n @0x4252. It is great to be part of this highly-productive team with academic thinking & startup-level execution speed...
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Andrew McCarthy
Andrew McCarthy@AJamesMcCarthy·
I’ve seen the stories, but worry this is much like the plane crash thing. We started last year with a fairly high profile plane crash. That made plane crashes a topic of interest, so they became more heavily reported on. Suddenly you were reading about planes crashing daily. To your average person that doesn’t know much about plane crashes, it seemed like a lot, when the reality is it was a relatively safe year for general aviation compared to past years, you just usually never hear about it. There are a LOT of scientists. Scientists die all the time. Are they dying at a higher rate than usual? If the topic of scientists dying becomes newsworthy, it will certainly seem like it, whether it is true or not. I don’t know enough about the statistics to know for sure, but since people are talking about this more you can bet every scientist death will now get reported on.
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LilHumansBigImpact
LilHumansBigImpact@BigImpactHumans·
Why do you think that suddenly there are so many nuclear and space scientists dying?
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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
Tesla has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire an AI hardware company for up to $2 billion in Tesla common stock and equity awards, of which approximately $1.8 billion is subject to certain service conditions and/or performance milestones dependent on the successful deployment of the company's technology. (via Tesla's 10-Q filing)
Sawyer Merritt tweet mediaSawyer Merritt tweet media
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AJG
AJG@AntJGumm·
@JamesSuckling Good luck .... but I WISH it was me 🍷
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James Suckling
James Suckling@JamesSuckling·
A great way to start the day at Château Belgrave, tasting 158 wines from the 2025 vintage, organized by Bordeaux négociant CVBG. Wish me luck.
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