Antranik Kizirian

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@phosgene22 @Gwenneths7 It was freaking expensive too! No unlimited tax plans for many years later

@Gwenneths7 "texting has been a thing since 1999" u fkn morons. yeah, when it took you 37 keypunches to spew out one 6 letter word texting was a thing. yeah...

I met a guy online. We emailed and messaged (this was before texting was a thing) and went out a few times. I liked him, but I wasn’t sure about it. He called me pretty regularly (again, this was pre-texting). Then one day, the calls stopped. That night, I called and left him a

@Kpaxs Same for gymnasts. Short = greater strength to weight ratio (bc as length increases by the square, weight increases by the cube.) people think gymnastics make people short. (And bball makes em tall 🤦‍♂️). No, the sport filters the best body for the job.

You can't swim your way into a swimmer's body. Selection came first. Results came second. So "do what successful people do and you'll be successful" sounds right. But what if successful people were selected for traits you can't replicate? What if the thing you're copying is the result, not the cause?

@LukeGromen @LynAldenContact Doesn’t include capital gains and dividends… gold has none of that. Gold miners do though 🤷‍♂️

Sentiment check: Gold has outperformed SPX Total Return over 1-year, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 25-year time horizons, & yet US investor consensus still holds basically no physical gold 🤔

@Truthcoin And everytime you sell, someone is buying. In reality an isolated buyer/seller can only do so much. But… If the order flow is excessive on one side constantly is when there’s sustainable net pressure.

Because it is a myth that "Buying Bitcoin" increases the price. Every time you buy, someone else is selling.

@CollinRugg @Thefactsdude The man would be alive if he wasn’t shot for no reason. 10 people piled on top of him and they still shoot him?

@Thefactsdude Once again, this man would be alive if left-wing politicians would stop emboldening and encouraging their supporters to get in the middle of law enforcement operations.

JUST IN: The man who was shot and killed by federal agents in Minneapolis has been identified as 37-year-old Alex Jeffrey Pretti. According to The Minnesota Star Tribune: - Pretti had "no serious criminal history." - Pretti previously attended the University of Minnesota. - Pretti was issued a license to be a registered nurse back in 2021, which remains active through March 2026.

Bring back the unpolished written content. Bring back longer videos that aren’t chopped up to death, where the pauses and the filler stay in. I only want to watch real humans again, not content optimized into a product.

@CFBBluePrint @roundrobin42 @Gugabed Generates the Amazon return QR codes

@roundrobin42 @Gugabed What’s it do when he loses $1000?

Incredible things are happening

@IdespiseE @ColdBloodShill @breakoutprop Yea, the 200k is all fugazi … you’re paying for have access to $6k if your max daily drawdown is 3% on a “200k” account

@ColdBloodShill @breakoutprop Yeah but you get like a 3% drawdown and you are facked isn't it?

I cannot stress this enough in these conditions. Use @breakoutprop. Pro & Turbo 1-Steps. More affordable than ever before. $200,000 accounts available. USE SOMEONE ELSES MONEY TO TRADE AND TAKE THE PROFIT. DISCOUNT CODE: CBS breakoutprop.com

@Markos_mom Beautiful rebuttal! Very healthy conversation. I too agree if you talk to most people they’ve never heard of prediction markets. And just go to work. I think his article is very true for the crypto addicts.

Well written article, but on a long enough timeframe I'm taking the other side of the bet. ​The article captures the current zeitgeist (inequality + nihilism = speculation) but mistakes cyclical fever for structural change. The author bets that humanity will stop valuing productivity for the next 100 years, contradicting basic economic cycles. ​Like the roaring twenties, this too shall pass. What follows will likely be a painful structural reset. ​First, the long degeneracy thesis ignores the great wealth transfer. Over the next two decades, $84 trillion is expected to flow from boomers to younger generations. When that capital lands, the desperation fueling this will evaporate. ​History shows that people gamble to get rich, but invest boringly to stay rich. The thesis is effectively a short on boomer mortality, rather than a bet on a new economic paradigm. This probably also feels hyper topical if you're permanently online. But speak to the average young person in the real world and they have no idea what kalshi is, and they've never placed a bet. They go to work, they earn money, they're happy. ​Going long the platforms assumes a static regulatory environment, but the house only wins as long as the state allows it. When gambling threatens social stability or tax revenue, the regulatory hammer drops (see: UK, China). Assuming governments will let their tax base dissolve into a nation of speculators is a massive mispricing of policy risk. ​Also, US betting feels revolutionary only because it was illegal for decades. This is a VC-backed land grab that will plateau. You've been able to walk into a Ladbrokes in the UK for years, and it hasn't turned the country into a nation of degenerates. ​Despite a stagnant economy, UK gambling rates haven't gone parabolic. The US will likely follow the same path: advertising bans, affordability checks, and strict limits. ​There is also a mis-pricing of the AI risk. The article assumes AI destroys income without destroying cost. But if tech accelerates, we face deflationary abundance where the cost of living collapses. If a good life becomes cheap, the need to make millions instantly fades. ​The struggle for survival may be replaced by a crisis of leisure, rendering the casino unnecessary. In other words people will search for meaning, for stability, for experiences, for family, rather than degeneracy. ​Finally, culture is a pendulum. Just as we see a dumb phone backlash, the next generation will likely view financial nihilism as toxic. We are closer to a new puritanism, a return to tangible value, than a century of speculation. ​This era looks like a local top fueled by the ZIRP era of easy money. Humanity eventually returns to building things, simply because you can't eat or shelter under a parlay.

@TheFlowHorse The comments are thick with irony. Urge traders to stop treating moves as noise and assume the other side is smarter... Commenters treat post like random noise, responding haphazardly without fully absorbing it. Live demo of some “dumb flow"

I think more than previously this should be understood. While a lot of flow in this market is dumb, and the bulk of the returns come from the behavior that such participants create (trend and momentum) it pays to never assume it is. Right now a lot of crypto retail is tapped out, so you are more likely now trading against the sharks. That means you should be treating this market less like a dice roll, and avoid haphazardly getting into positions. Outcomes are noisy, participants are not. Assume every buyer and seller has a good and well informed reason for why and where they are getting involved, and what level of urgency is placed behind that. You’re not trading against random noise, trades are not “events that happen” they’re “decisions someone finally took", and I would lean toward that someone being smarter than you.

@lBattleRhino I mean… if you don’t count the last few months.. a lot of shit went absurdly up and bounced in a sky high range (distributing) before plummeting..

@joeljohn @packyM Longest essay I’ve read that’s not a printed book in a long time. And it was good.

Apologies @packyM. I’ve not been in sync with your game. These lines go so hard. Incredibly well written essay. Def up there in list of reads that’s currently defining my worldviews. notboring.co/p/means-and-me…

@WallStreetApes But this doesn’t change anything for school vaccine requirements. States independently set their own schedule.

This is HUGE ‼️ Donald Trump’s HHS is preparing a new childhood vaccine schedule to be announced at the beginning of the year America’s vaccine schedule will look similar to Denmarks This will reduce the amount of childhood vaccines from 72 doses all the way down to just 11

@JackNiewold The daily or even hourly markets have lots of volume

the reason for tiny volumes on prediction markets is not cause we're 'early' its because structurally these platforms don't work with market making market makers don’t (and won't) touch prediction markets because the flow is adversarial - and structurally MMs prefer to trade against uninformed flow on polymarket people trade because they think they’re right, or have informational asymmetry. Insiders (not MMs) arb against uneducated flow this is why sports betting platforms set lines and bake in a vig instead of set up p2p markets not to say prediction markets will fail, just to say that we already have good mechanics for binary events (sportsbooks)

@xydotdot Remember the scene in titanic? When they go downstairs to where the poor hang out, away from the rich stuffy people and dinners? What were they doing? HAVING A BLAST DANCING THEIR ASSES OFF

Keep Your Poor Friends, Disregard The Rich One thing I see all the time when people start making money is they quietly “upgrade” their friends. New income, new circle. It feels natural, you move up, so your social life should move up too. Critical mistake. Most people do not have an internal definition of success. They borrow it from whoever is around them. When your circle shifts to people with more money, your idea of a good life shifts with it. Their house, their trips, their habits, their problems, all become your reference. Yesterday your life felt solid. Today it suddenly feels small. Nothing changed except the people you are standing next to. On the surface you will say you feel motivated. Underneath you are just running a new comparison that you can never win. There will always be someone with more. If your definition of “doing well” comes from the top of whatever room you are in, you will live in permanent shortage, no matter how much you make. I have moved through these layers. I have sat in rooms where everyone has serious money. Something always felt off tho. The richer the room, the lower the visible excitement. People have everything, but very little still moves them. The bar for surprise is too high. Good food is normal. Nice views are normal. Convenience is normal. Over time, that comfort kills a very specific human trait: awe. Money does that to people slowly. It does not make them evil or fake. It just numbs them. When you can buy most things you want, the world stops hitting as hard. There is less genuine reaction, less spontaneity, less chaos. Now think about the people you have laughed the hardest with. The stories you still tell years later. They usually do not come from the richest friends you have. They come from the ones who were broke or close to it. The ones who had to be creative to have fun. The ones who could turn a cheap plan into a great night. They still felt everything fully because nothing was guaranteed and nothing was automated. That is the piece I refuse to lose. The susceptibility to awe. The ability to be impressed by small things. Poor friends usually still have that. Life has not been dulled for them yet. They care about stupid details. They overreact. They get hyped over things that a rich room would scroll past. That energy carries a different weight entirely. It reconnects you with the basic feeling that life should actually hit you. This is why my friend circle barely changed after money. My core group has not been “updated” to match my money. The friends I had before money still feel like the right mirror. They knew me when a good day was something simple. They relate to life in a way that does not require a high budget to feel worth living. Keeping your poor friends. It protects your sense of what is enough. It keeps your reference point connected to reality instead of to someone else’s excess. It keeps you close to people who are still impressed by being here at all. If money changes your circumstances, fine. Let it. Just be careful with letting it change your circle. Upgrading your friends can end up downgrading your life.

@LomahCrypto Also interesting… x.com/hodlmaryland/s…

Whether you agree or disagree, I can’t help but enjoy a thought-out piece on someone’s perspective. This is what markets are all about. I fucking love it here.

@saliencexbt Amazing read

@xydotdot What a beautiful post. Just discovered you and read your recent posts. A breath of fresh air.

No new on-chain meta in 3+ months is a sign I’m adding to my top signals. If you think it through, the absence of a fresh meta implies that participants are tired, cautious, short on liquidity, or some combination of all three. Metas rarely emerge from fundamentals. They emerge when participants are so eager to deploy that any narrative can accelerate into a speculative cycle. When that instinct disappears, the market might be telling you something.

I’ll share a small part of pickle.com Back in med school, I became obsessed with augmenting memory and dreamed of a Notion or Obsidian that completes itself. Today, we’ve built something close. My self-awareness is sharper and everything feels connected. I genuinely believe AI does not replace humans. It amplifies us. Huge respect to our engineers and designers who made this crazy thing real. Bubbles are the episodic units of my life that the system interprets from my raw data. Clouds are the system’s questions, its hypotheses about who I am. When I answer a cloud, it becomes a bubble again. There is so much personal data that I cannot fully demo it. Wish I could. This system understands me more deeply than anyone. Want to try it? Retweet and comment “memory.” I’ll DM you an access code to skip the waitlist.