Scott

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Scott

Scott

@ArchAtLast

This is the most vile place I visit. It didn't used to be that way - Pre Elenore. I'm transitioning - to the bluesky

Detroit, Katılım Ocak 2009
2K Takip Edilen834 Takipçiler
Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@KARK4News After eating it's time to go - turn the table over. That's how it works.
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KARK 4 News
KARK 4 News@KARK4News·
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said she was asked to leave a Little Rock restaurant after her office claims that the restaurant’s owner said employees felt “threatened and uncomfortable.” kark.com/news/governors…
KARK 4 News tweet media
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@shanaka86 We can only bail out the farmers so many times. They keep making political choices that severely hurt them. They were convinced those who can govern were the problem.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@Mollyploofkins GOP "You should be comforted by the suffering of others." Others do however have alternatives to gas, but we don't because alternatives are woke and we celebrate caveman energy.
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Molly Ploofkins
Molly Ploofkins@Mollyploofkins·
Vance says Americans should find comfort in the fact that our allies are "suffering more than we are" from high gas prices
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Rep. Pramila Jayapal
Rep. Pramila Jayapal@RepJayapal·
Pope Leo and I agree: Health care is a moral imperative. It is a human right. We need Medicare for All.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal tweet media
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Seth
Seth@fiercepatricks·
Straight people wanted straight pride parade😂😂 and that is their flag
Seth tweet media
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@anna_c_kramer Expertise is bad you know. Maga hates the well educated, trained, experienced elites. Many are multilingual and have skin shades other than pasty white.
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Anna Kramer
Anna Kramer@anna_c_kramer·
NEWS: Six months before the Trump admin began bombing Iran, the Department of State fired its oil and gas experts. State’s energy division got completely DOGE’d. And with it went the people who knew how to plan for a global energy crisis. notus.org/trump-white-ho…
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@KyleClark If the amount of time you spend dwelling on other people's naughty parts is more than zero it's too much. Especially children. Stop being so perverted. Keep your eyes on your own junk. Never mind anyone else's. None of your goddamn business.
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Kyle Clark
Kyle Clark@KyleClark·
Evangelical Christians have successfully placed two anti-trans measures on the November ballot to "stop the transgender plague in Colorado." The initiatives sidestep the Democrat-controlled legislature, which a ballot measure organizer says is inhabited by "actual demons."
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@thedailybeast . . . And to collect his pension while simultaneously cashing in by consulting to all the ammunition suppliers and detention centers
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The Daily Beast
The Daily Beast@thedailybeast·
EXCLUSIVE | Trump’s former top Border Patrol officer, Gregory Bovino, chose to quit rather than face multiple investigations into his conduct, according to a DHS insider. trib.al/2swG8C3
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@WhiteHouse @VP Are any of the political appointees not involved in fraud? Oh, not that kind of fraud. I see.
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The White House
The White House@WhiteHouse·
President Donald J. Trump just signed an Executive Order creating the Task Force to ELIMINATE Fraud. Chaired by @VP Vance, this task force will crack down on fraud, close loopholes, and make sure benefits go ONLY to eligible Americans. Promises Made. Promises Kept. 🇺🇸
The White House tweet media
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@MorePerfectUS My income after withholdings is less than that
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More Perfect Union
More Perfect Union@MorePerfectUS·
BREAKING: New report shows that the median rent in Manhattan has now hit $5,000/month for the first time.
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@atrupar Just like the working class except they still get paid when they don't work.
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Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
Mike Johnson talks about how Trump encouraged a Republican member of Congress who got a terminal diagnosis to keep coming to work so Democrats wouldn't pick up a seat as though this is a commendable thing
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@PawlowskiMario I don't see church. She should have gone to church.
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Mario
Mario@PawlowskiMario·
Now apparently ex-MAGA Mila here just accidentally admitted to the real problem: “I didn’t vote, you followed orders.” Typical authoritarian behavior, follow orders and don’t think.
Mario tweet media
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@PressSec "the lady doth protest too much, me thinks" WS
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Karoline Leavitt
Karoline Leavitt@PressSec·
This story is 100% FAKE NEWS.  CNN decided to run this garbage based on three anonymous “sources familiar with discussions.”   This is despite the fact that myself, the Secretary of War, the Secretary of State, and multiple lawmakers (who were actually present for the recent classified briefing) have directly disputed this false reporting.  THE TRUTH: The Pentagon has been planning for Iran’s desperate and reckless closure of the Strait of Hormuz for DECADES, and it has been part of the Trump Administration’s planning well before Operation Epic Fury was ever launched.  The idea that Chairman Cain and Secretary Hegseth weren’t prepared for this possibility is PREPOSTEROUS. The President was fully briefed on it, and a goal of the Operation itself, to annihilate the terrorist Iranian regime’s navy, missiles, drone production infrastructure, and other threat capabilities is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait. President Trump will not allow rogue Iranian terrorists to stop the freedom of navigation and the free flow of energy. Wiping out these terrorists who indiscriminately target civilians and attempt to hold the global economy hostage is part of the ongoing noble U.S. mission. The Fake News is working overtime to discredit President Trump, his Administration, and our U.S. Military, all of whom are working 24/7 to eliminate the threat of the Iranian regime. It’s a complete disgrace to witness this from the media, and we will keep fighting back against it.
Karoline Leavitt tweet media
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Christopher David
Christopher David@Tazerface16·
I'm pretty sure that Trump won't use a nuke. But being only "pretty sure" is what keeps me up at night.
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@daveweigel bombing children should get him on the short list, right?
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The Cradle
The Cradle@TheCradleMedia·
Theft of US military drones from Fort Campbell sparks fears of potential false flag against Iran —— US Army investigators are offering a reward of up to $5,000 after four military drones were stolen from an engineer battalion building at Fort Campbell between 21 and 24 November. Authorities released images of two individuals believed to be linked to the theft as the search for the missing drones continues. The incident comes as US security agencies circulate warnings about a possible Iranian drone attack on California. An FBI bulletin sent to law enforcement in February claimed Iran had “aspired” to launch drones from an unidentified vessel off the US coast in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, though the memo acknowledged it had no information on timing, targets, or perpetrators. The convergence of a drone theft and vague intelligence warnings has fueled accusations online that such narratives could be used to shape public perception about Iran as incidents involving unidentified drones or stolen military equipment have historically raised concerns about potential false flag scenarios that could be blamed on geopolitical adversaries.
The Cradle tweet media
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Scott
Scott@ArchAtLast·
@ABC7NY What was Kash smoking? OTOH Attack a hornets next expect to get stung.
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