FiatMinimalist

@TheBTCTherapist The whole war was supposed to be over in a few weeks. The constant lies are getting pretty old

I hope this is fake news

@SpencerGuard The idea that we would be done with this way in a month or 2 is just a silly lie though by Trump. This is clearly going to take many months

@IanCarrollShow @EYakoby And pretty sure nobody cares what you have to say either. 😂. You have gone cookoo for cocoa puffs buddy

@EYakoby Ben was a never trumper until Israel bought him. No one cares what Shapiro has to say.

Ben Shapiro eviscerates Megyn Kelly. “She was Pro-trans until the clicks changed. She was pro-Israel until the clicks changed. She was Erika’s “friend” until Candace’s audience mattered more.”

@pete_rizzo_ Haha. So dumb

TOM LEE JUST SAID THE #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO BEAR MARKET WILL BE OVER “BY APRIL AT THE LATEST” HE’S CALLING FOR $250,000 BTC BREAKOUT IS COMING 🚀

@DefiantLs Why the fuck does he go by “clavicular”. That pisses me off just by itself

Streamer “Clavicular,” arrested Thursday night in Fort Lauderdale, according to police. He is charged with misdemeanor battery after a video him shooting at what appears to be a dead alligator during a stream while on an airboat in the Everglades.

@jakebrowatzke You can have a great company and in this environment get rekt. Just get out and let it get washed out and find a bottom. Re enter later. Good companies will get real cheap soon. Keep heavy cash for now. Lots of issues besides the war. The war is just icing on the cake here

New YTD Low. No crying. Only buying.

@MattiaPennacch8 @stackhodler The crisis always happens before the big print. Thats his point. Be im cash and prepare for that big capitulation event, then get back in before the print. The event is a massive loss you want to avoid

@stackhodler You do really believe someone like Trump, who mentions mr. Market, at every, single press conference will let a 'true crisis' happens instead of printing, ycc, whatever pre-emptively?

If you're an investor, you need to understand this one simple thing: The world took out $300+ trillion in global debt when interest rates were 0-1% And now it's being forced to refinance at 5%+ interest rates. UBS just gated a €400mn real estate fund. One more fund added to the growing pile of private equity and private credit funds that are telling investors to take a hike. We've been talking about "something breaking" since 2022. There have been mini crises along the way... UK gilt markets, regional banking crises, etc. But each of those was quickly papered over. Now investors are lulled into a sense of complacency, assuming the authorities can prevent pain indefinitely. But you simply cannot just go from 0% interest rates to 5%+ with record debt levels and not face big problems eventually. Think about it in simple terms: When rates are 1%, you can take out a $100M loan and only pay $1M a year in interest. You can invest that $100M into real estate, cash-flowing businesses, and speculative startups. That pushes valuations of everything higher and everyone thinks they're getting rich. Which is exactly what's been happening since 2008. Equity index performance since the money printing began in 2008 has been a complete statistical anomaly. The market sits in the 99th percentile for valuation richness based on 70 years of data. American exceptionalism? Technology boom? Or just the late stages of a massive debt orgy pushing valuations of everything higher? Eventually you need to refinance that $100M loan you took out. But what happens when interest rates are 5% now and refusing to come down? Now it costs $5M a year for the same $100M loan. Your expenses have gone 5x in a short period of time - but has your income done the same? Unlikely. Let's keep it simple and assume your income doubled and you can afford $2M a year in interest. But at 5% rates that means you can only take out a $40M loan. So now you're on the hook for the $60 million you borrowed. Maybe you can sell some of the assets you bought with the original $100M? But who's buying? Everyone is in the same boat! The price you bought at only made sense in a 0% interest rate world. The bottom line is people can't afford nearly as much debt when interest rates go up, so the debt-fueled increase in asset prices MUST come to an end. These are the simple mechanics of fiat money and debt. This is why it's a risk to take out debt when you hit 0% interest after 40 straight years of falling rates. Eventually the trend reverses one way or another. And you are at the mercy of whatever policy response the central planners decide to enact. They can choose: Great Depression II (debt collapse) or Currency crisis (print the fiat into oblivion to prevent the debt collapse) If you have a massive supply disruption of critical raw materials, perhaps you get both. Usually, the drastic policy response doesn't come before a true crisis. Which means we should expect asset prices to eventually adjust violently to the new reality as everyone starts to realize what's going on. In that environment, cash is the best asset to hold. "But cash is trash!" everyone screams near the generational top... Ask the silent generation who lived through the 1930s what they thought about cash. Cash is only trash when it can be printed at will, but occasionally there are constraints on printing cash. And in a debt spiral, it's actually the scarcest thing. Cash is like oxygen. Usually you have plenty. But sometimes, like when you're underwater and your lungs are screaming for air, you'd trade absolutely anything to get some. Occasionally it's very rational to be bullish on cash. If an asset you like is going down 50%, then your cash is going up 100% priced in that asset. Your purchasing power doubles. But only if you see cash as an asset at the right moment. Allowing yourself to be occasionally bullish on cash is what separates doomers from winners. If you know there's going to be a shortage of oil, it's easy to be bullish on oil. And if you think there's going to be a shortage of cash, then you can be bullish on cash. Simple. Interest rates rising in an environment with record debt levels usually means there's going to be a shortage of cash at some point. And people will have to sell whatever they can to get cash to service their debts. It's simple arithmetic. Yes, usually the central planners step in when things get too painful. Because printing money is better than doing nothing in their minds. But will they print if there's an oil supply shock sending the cost of everything skyward? Will they break their inflation mandate just to save the fiat ponzi? That would be a tacit admission that the whole system is a big fugazi that only survives with money printing. Which puts the credibility of sovereign debt and fiat currencies at risk, and thus jeopardizes the very power of the central planners themselves. As an investor you need to be aware of what's going on and what could happen between now and a potential policy response. The "gates" at UBS, Ares, and Apollo are simply the first signs that the fire has started but the exit door is WAY too small for the crowd. And you never want to be the last one out the door.

@Dominik_Auer @stackhodler What is the typical timeframe between the major washout event and the intervening ya think?

@stackhodler right. it is likely the better approach - if executed properly. and the chances are high that most investors won't execute it properly - like any market-timing approach.

@Aaronbennett One day you’ll be excited to log in. One day!

@AssetJunkie Me every day

The worst part about buying in bear markets is logging into my account and being forced to see how broke I am.

@RichardBSpencer It felt that way because nobody was willing to do the dirty work that needed to be done.

America was clearly better under Joe Biden.

@Sbh08Mae @LqLana Really? Thats pure TDS then Think about that stupidity your brain didnt stop you from typind and hit send

@LqLana I do believe that Donald Trump is the worst human on earth.

He is not a king, he is a felon. He is not a king, he is a rapist. He is not a king, he is a grifter. He is not a king, he is a predator. He is not a king, he is a bully. He is not a king, he is an idiot. He is not a king, he is a racist. He is not a king, he is a bigot. He is not a king, he is a White Supremacist. He is not a king, he is a ghoul. He is not a king, he is a draft dodger. He is not a king, he is a traitor. #NoKingsDay #DemsUnited

@LqLana And if you show up to a protest that is allowed by the president then hes not really a king right?

@Ericland55 @Trumpgirl2614 @ImSpeaking13 If mueller put your family through what he did to Trump you would feel the samw way

@Trumpgirl2614 @ImSpeaking13 Class

E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels should have been the end of Trump. January 6th should have been the end of Trump. Jack Smith and Robert Mueller should have been the end of Trump. 34 felonies to conceal his fuck ups enough to run for President should have been the end of Trump.

@Ericland55 @ImSpeaking13 He never mocked a reporter with a disability. This was taken completely out of context. How do you folks operate in the real world?

@ImSpeaking13 This should've been the end of Trump, instead it emboldened despicable, sophomoric behavior that exists yet today.

@martypartymusic @w45803545 @intocryptoverse What part was he incorrect about?

@w45803545 @intocryptoverse Some form of psychosis

Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.

@mikealfred Yeah Im in a medium tax bracket and normally not a trader but I like the odds of a lot more pain to come here and will not sell all my shares. I always hold some in case Im wrong. Right now the odds seem much higher for the washout before a print coming.

@LouieInvests @mikealfred I agree with that statement as Im not a trader and make lots of moves. Im a long term investor and never sale all my shares of my quality assets but will trim in the more obvious environments, especially like this one. Just too many macro issues to not play the odds here a bit

@mikealfred @AssetJunkie I’d disagree people who try this just lose. It’s just kind of a rule in a way I feel. For example the man who holds blank for 5 years straight will almost always walk away better then if they constantly trade blank.

@mikealfred @2ab_extraenergy But boy if you can time big drops even somewhat decent to avoid round tripping you can do so much better than a permabull.